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European Economics Preview: Eurozone Flash Inflation, Unemployment Data Due
Flash inflation, unemployment and results of the Purchasing Managers' survey from Eurozone are due on Thursday, headlining a hectic day for the European economic news.
At 1.30 am ET, the French statistical office Insee is scheduled to issue ILO jobless rate for the fourth quarter. The jobless rate is forecast to rise to 9.6 percent from 9.3 percent in the prior quarter.
Swiss GDP figures are due from the Federal Statistical Office at 1.45 am ET. Economists expect the economy to shrink 0.1 percent sequentially in the fourth quarter.
At 2.00 am ET, Ireland's manufacturing PMI for February is due.
Hungary's Central Statistical Office is slated to release producer price data at 3.00 am ET. Producer price annual inflation is seen rising to 8.2 percent in January from 7.5 percent in December. In the meantime, manufacturing PMI figures from Poland, Turkey and Norway are due.
At 3.45 am ET, Markit Economics is set to publish Italy's manufacturing PMI. The index is forecast to rise to 47.1 in February from 46.8 a month ago. Final French and German manufacturing PMI figures are due at 3.50 and 3.55 am ET, respectively.
The Eurozone manufacturing PMI, due at 4.00 am ET, is expected to match the flash estimate of 49 in February.
Half an hour later, U.K. Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI is due. The index is seen easing to 52 from 52.1 in January. In the meantime, auction results from Spain and France are due. The Spanish government plans to obtain funds in the range of EUR 3.5 billion and EUR 4.5 billion. The treasury will issue bonds maturing in 2014, 2015 and 2016.
The French debt management agency AFT aims to raise a maximum EUR 8 billion from the issue of long-term bonds.
Eurostat is set to release Eurozone flash inflation and unemployment data at 5.00 am ET. Inflation is seen at 2.6 percent in February, the same rate as in January. The jobless rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 10.4 percent in January.
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Eurozone Leaders To Decide On Firewall By End-March: Van Rompuy
Eurozone leaders will likely decide on the adequacy of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) by the end of March, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said Thursday.
Following the fist session of the European Council, he said "Eurozone leaders will reassess the adequacy of the overall ceiling of the EFSF/ ESM firewall by the end of the month." They have also agreed to accelerate the payments of the pending capital for the ESM, he added.
EU heads of state or government on Thursday re-elected Van Rompuy as President of the European Council for a second term of two and a half years. His term will run till November 30, 2014 from June 1, 2012.
He was also designated as president of the Euro Summit for the same term of office.
Van Rompuy lauded the decisive legislative actions taken by Greek authorities over the past ten days. "Eurozone leaders support the efforts undertaken by Greece to strengthen the country's institutional capacity," he said.
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European Economics Preview: Eurozone Retail Sales Data Due
Retail sales and results of the Purchasing Managers' survey from Eurozone are due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
At 3.00 am ET, Turkey's consumer and producer prices are due. Annual inflation is forecast to slow to 10.48 percent in February from 10.61 percent in January.
At 3.15 am ET, the Federal Statistical Office is set to publish Swiss retail sales figures for January. Sales were up 0.6 percent year-on-year in December.
Markit Economics is slated to release Italy's services PMI at 3.45 am ET. Thereafter, final French and German PMI figures are due at 3.50 and 3.55 am ET.
At 4.00 am ET, Eurozone final PMI data is due. The composite PMI is expected to match the flash reading of 49.7 in February.
Italy's statistical office Istat is scheduled to issue producer price data at 4.00 am ET. Economists forecast producer price inflation to ease to 3.4 percent in January from 4 percent in December.
Half an hour later, Eurozone sentix investor confidence is due. The index is seen improving to -5 in March from -11.1 a month ago. In the meantime, U.K.'s services PMI is due. The services PMI is expected to dip to 54.9 in February from 56 in January.
Eurostat is scheduled to issue January retail sales data at 5.00 am ET. Eurozone retail sales are forecast to drop 0.1 percent month-on-month after easing 0.3 percent in December.
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RBA Keeps Cash Rate Unchanged At 4.25%
The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday decided to keep its benchmark cash rate unchanged at 4.25 percent for a second consecutive time, as economic growth is expected to be close to trend and inflation close to target. The decision was in line with economists' expectations.
In a statement today, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said the Board judged that the current setting of monetary policy was appropriate for the moment.
"Should demand conditions weaken materially, the inflation outlook would provide scope for easier monetary policy," he said. Most information on the Australian economy continues to suggest growth close to trend overall, with differences between sectors and considerable structural change, the policymaker noted.
Stevens said interest rates for borrowers have generally risen slightly since the Board's previous meeting, but remain close to their medium-term average. Despite a fall in the terms of trade, the exchange rate has risen over recent months, the policymaker noted.
He said that consumer price inflation has declined as expected and will fall further over the next quarter or two. Over the coming one to two years, and abstracting from the effects of the carbon price, the bank expects inflation to be in the 2-3 percent range.
Regarding economic developments in Europe, Stevens said the acute financial pressures on banks in Europe have been alleviated considerably by the actions of policymakers, though there is more to do to put European banks and sovereigns onto a sound footing for the longer term and Europe will remain a potential source of shocks for some time yet.
RBA said growth in China, Australia's major trading partner, has moderated as was intended. However, most indicators remained quite robust overall. Earlier last month, the central bank trimmed the economy's growth forecast to 3.5 percent for the year ending June 2012 from the previous forecast of 4 percent. Downgrading the outlook, the RBA said it reflects the weaker outlook for global economic growth, with the uncertainty about the European situation expected to weigh on household and business spending decisions.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics is slated to publish the preliminary gross domestic product figures for the December quarter on Wednesday. The economy is forecast to expand 0.7 percent quarter-on-quarter, slower than the 1 percent growth in the preceding three-month period.
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Japan Forex Reserves Decline In February
Japanese foreign exchange reserves declined in February after hitting a record-high in January, data from the Finance Ministry revealed Wednesday.
Japan's official reserve assets fell to $1.303 trillion at the end of February from a record high of $1.307 trillion in January.
The Ministry has said that it did not conduct market intervention between November 29 and February 27 after spending JPY 9.09 trillion between October 28 and November 28.
At the end of February, the country's foreign currency reserves stood at $1.22 trillion. The International Monetary Fund reserve position was at $16.8 billion, while Spacial Drawing Rights amounted to $20 billion.
Gold reserves rose to $43.54 billion at the end of the month from $42.9 billion at the end of January.
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European Economics Preview: ECB, BoE Likely To Hold Key Rates
Outcome of the monetary policy meetings of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are the major events that are set to dominate the scene on Thursday.
At 2.30 am ET, the Bank of France is scheduled to issue business confidence survey results. The business sentiment index is forecast to remain unchanged at 96 in February.
Thereafter, French trade data is due from customs office at 2.45 am ET. The trade deficit is seen widening to EUR 5.15 billion in January from EUR 5 billion in December.
The Czech Statistical Office is slated to release unemployment and external trade figures at 3.00 am ET. The jobless rate is forecast to remain stable at 9.1 percent in February. At the same time, the trade surplus is expected to rise to CZK 22 billion in January from CZK 10.5 billion in December.
In the meantime, Turkey's industrial output figures are due. On a yearly basis, industrial output is forecast to rise 3.5 percent in January, after increasing 3.7 percent in December.
At 3.15 am ET, the Federal Statistical Office is set to publish Swiss consumer prices for February. Consumer prices are forecast to fall 1 percent year-on-year after declining 0.8 percent in January.
Dutch consumer prices are due at 3.30 am ET. Annual inflation is seen easing to 2.4 percent in February from 2.5 percent in January.
The Federal Ministry of Economy and Technology is set to issue German industrial production for January. Economists forecast output to grow 1.1 percent month-on-month in January after falling 2.9 percent in December.
Bank of England policymakers are set to maintain GBP 325 billion asset purchase programme intact today after lifting it by GBP 50 billion in February. The bank is also expected to retain its record low 0.5 percent interest rate.
The European Central Bank is set to announce its decision at 7.45 am ET. Economists widely expect policymakers to maintain the rate at 1.00 percent. ECB President Mario Draghi is set to hold a the regular post-decision press conference at 8.30 am ET.
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Greece Announces Successful Completion Of Debt Swap Deal
Greece successfully completed the debt swap agreement with 85.8 percent of its private bond holders voluntarily signing up to take part in the deal, clearing the way for the troubled euro member to secure international funds to avert a disorderly default.
In a statement on Friday, the Finance Ministry said of the EUR 177 billion of bonds issued, which are governed by Greek law, the Republic has received tenders for exchange and consents for holders of approximately EUR 152 billion face amount of bonds. Holders of EUR 172 billion worth of bonds in total have consented to bond offer.
The Ministry also said that EUR 20 billion or 69 percent of foreign-law bonds were also tendered. Greece has extended the tender on foreign-law bonds to March 23. The government has made it clear that it will not extend the invitation period for its bonds governed by Greek law.
Though the participation rate exceeded the 75 percent threshold set by the government to get in with the deal and receive the EUR 130 billion worth bailout money from the international creditors, the level was below the 90 percent, needed to avoid triggering the "collective action clauses" or CACs.
The CACs will force reluctant bondholders to join in and the government said the participation rate will rise to 95.7 percent after activating the CACs.
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, or ISDA said today that a question relating to a "potential credit event" with respect to the Greece has been submitted to, and subsequently accepted for consideration by the EMEA Determinations Committee.
The ISDA EMEA Determinations committee will meet today at 1 pm GMT to assess if a "credit event" has occurred, which would trigger a payout on credit default swaps. ISDA has said earlier this month that Greece's debt swap deal so far does not constitute a "credit event" or default. The successful completion of the debt swap deal was the pre-condition set by the European Union and the International Monetary fund for handing over the bailout approved last month. The money is vital for Greece to avoid a default on its debt on March 20, when it has to repay EUR 14.5 billion.
Under the debt swap deal, private holders will take a 53.5 percent nominal loss on their total EUR 206 billion Greek debt by exchanging their existing bonds with new ones, having longer maturities and lower face value.
The euro member aims to reduce its total indebtedness to 120.5 percent of GDP by 2020 from the current level of 160 percent.
The Institute of International Finance, or IIF, welcomed the results of the swap offer. IIF negotiated the deal with the Greek government on behalf of the private creditors.
Greece will continue implementing the measures needed to achieve the fiscal adjustments and structural reforms to which it has committed and that will return Greece to a path of sustainable growth, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said.
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European Economics Preview: Eurogroup To Give Final Nod For Greek Bailout
Eurozone finance ministers will meet today to discuss giving final approval for Greece's second bailout.
At 3.00 am ET, the Federal Statistical Office is scheduled to issue German wholesale prices for February. Economists forecast wholesale price inflation to slow to 2.6 percent annually in February from 3 percent in January.
At 4.00 am ET, Turkey's central bank is scheduled to publish current account data for January. The current account gap is forecast to narrow to $5.5 billion from $6.57 billion in December.
In the meantime, Romania's inflation and trade figures. Annual inflation is seen easing to 2.4 percent in February from 2.7 percent in January.
Italy's final GDP data from Istat is due at 5.00 am ET. According to preliminary estimate, the economy slipped into a recession in the fourth quarter. The gross domestic product declined by 0.7 percent sequentially, bigger than the 0.2 percent drop logged in the third quarter. The statistical office is expected to confirm the initial estimate.
The German government aims to raise a maximum of EUR 4 billion from the issue of Bubills, with a maturity of 6 months. The results are due at 6.00 am ET.
Eurogroup meeting is set to begin in Brussels at 1.00 am ET. At the prior meeting on Friday, Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker said Greece has implemented all measures in a satisfactory manner to receive a second bailout package.
The Greek authorities managed to obtain the cooperation of the private sector in participating in the debt exchange offer. The International Monetary Fund is likely to approve its share of the bailout this week.
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European Economics Preview: German ZEW Economic Sentiment Forecast To Improve
Economic sentiment survey results from Germany and external trade from the U.K. are the important statistical reports due on Tuesday.
At 2.30 am ET, the French statistical office Insee is scheduled to release consumer prices for February. Annual inflation is forecast to rise to 2.4 percent from 2.3 percent in January.
Inflation figures from Spain and Hungary are due at 4.00 am ET. Spain's EU harmonized inflation is seen at 1.9 percent in February, while Hungary's inflation is expected to rise to 5.6 percent from 5.5 percent in January.
At 4.15 am ET, the Federal Statistical Office is slated to release Swiss producer and import prices for February. On a yearly basis, the index is expected to drop 2.4 percent, the same rate of decline as seen in January.
Half an hour later, Statistics Sweden is scheduled to issue inflation data. Annual inflation is forecast to fall to 1.8 percent in February from 1.9 percent in January.
At 5.00 am ET, final inflation data from Italy and current account figures from Czech are due.
At 5.30 am ET, the Office for National Statistics is scheduled to release U.K. trade balance for January. The visible trade deficit is seen widening to GBP 7.9 billion from GBP 7.11 billion in December.
German ZEW economic confidence survey results are due at 6.00 am ET. Economists forecast economic confidence to rise to 10 in March from 5.4 in February. The current conditions index is forecast to improve to 41.5 from 40.3 a month ago.
Poland's inflation and current account figures are due at 9.00 am ET. Annual inflation is seen rising to 4.2 percent in February from 4.1 percent in January.
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European Economics Preview: Eurozone Industrial Output, U.K. Jobless Data Due
Industrial production and inflation from Eurozone and labor market statistics from the U.K. are the major reports due on Wednesday.
Statistics Finland is set to publish inflation data for February at 3.00 am ET. Annual inflation rose to 3.2 percent in January from 2.9 percent in December.
Sweden's AMV jobless data is due at 5.00 am ET. The jobless rate is forecast to remain stable at 4.8 percent in February.
Half an hour later, the Office for National Statistics is slated to release U.K. claimant count and jobless figures. The claimant count is seen unchanged at 5 percent in February. During three months to January, the jobless rate is seen at 8.4 percent.
At 6.00 am ET, Eurostat is scheduled to issue final consumer price figures and industrial production data. Eurozone industrial production is forecast to rise 0.5 percent month-on-month in January, following a 1.2 percent drop in December.
February's inflation is seen at 2.7 percent, unchanged from the flash estimate, but up from 2.6 percent in January.
Italy plans to raise up to EUR 5 billion from the sale of a new three-year BTP bond maturing in March 2015. Also, it targets to receive a maximum of EUR 1 billion from BTP bonds maturing on September 2019. The results are due at 6.10 am ET.
At 9.00 am ET, Norway's central bank is set to announce its interest rate decision. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1.75 percent.
In the meantime, Poland's money supply data is due. M3 money supply is seen rising 0.6 percent month-on-month in February after falling 0.8 percent in January.
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