dekac's commentaries
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21 May-U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained broadly against a basket of currencies as investors continued to square off short greenback bets, amid a growing view the Fed may not cut interest rates this year. In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ rose by 20.34 points (+0.79%) whilst the Dow Jones fell by 13.65 points (-0.10%) as investors looked to take profit late in the session. Crude oil increased by 2% on Monday as continued uncertainty arose from the world’s eighth largest exporter, Nigeria. Crude rose by US$1.33 a barrel to US$66.27. Looking ahead, the Richmond Fed index will be made public today with the previous figure at -11. With little major US economic data due this week, investors are looking ahead to a meeting between US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and China Vice-Premier Wu Yi on Tuesday and Wednesday where they are expected to discuss trade relations, including the value of the Yuan.
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29-May The Japanese yen(JPY) trade in a tight range to close the day unchanged from Friday’s session. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 121.62 and a high of 121.81 before closing the day at 121.66. Looking ahead a key data day is expected out of Japan with the release of Household Spending (Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 1.1%), Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4%; Previous: 4%) and finally Retail Sales (Forecast: -0.4%; Previous: -0.7%).UPDATE: Household Spending: 1.1%, Unemployment Rate: 3.8% and Retail Sales: -0.6%
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06 June-The Yapanese Yen (JPY)gained against a broadly weaker USD but still suffered on the back of high yielding carry trades remaining prominent. The EURJPY reached a new record high of 164.62 on expectations the ECB will look to increase rate in their upcoming meeting. Overall the USDJPY traded with a range of a low 121.12 and a high of 121.94 before closing the day at 121.33 in the New York session.
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The Euro (EUR) slipped against the USD on Thursday against a broadly stronger dollar. Overall the EURUSD traded with a range of a low 1.3423 and a high of 1.3513 before closing the day at 1.3432 in the New York session. Looking ahead little data is expected out of the EZ to end the week.
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11 June-The Japanese Yen (JPY)fell against the USD on the back of surging treasury yields. The USDJPY climbed 0.6% amid reduced expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In other news Minister of Finance Watanabe stated that there were no immediate risks of unwinding of carry trades. Overall the USDJPY traded with a range of a low 120.77 and a high of 121.84 before closing the day at 121.68 in the New York session. Looking ahead GDP data for the first quarter is expected to be confirmed at 0.8% for the q/q (Previous: 0.6%) and 3.1% for y/y.
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16 June-U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed against all majors as Core Produce Price index rose to 1.6% for the month of May y/y, up from the previous month of 1.5%. In U.S share markets, the NASDAQ was up 17.10 points (+0.66%) whilst the Dow Jones was also up by 71.37 points (+0.53%). Crude oil rose slightly by US$0.08 a barrel to US$67.73. Looking ahead a heavy data day is scheduled for the U.S. markets, with expectations that Core CPI for the month of May, to come in at 0.2% same as the previous. In other news, Current account for the first quarter is expected to decline sharply to -201 bln (Previous: 195.70 bln). Furthermore, Key data will also be released in the form of TIC flows, with economists expecting a figure of 75 bln for the month of April (Previous: 67.6 bln). Other data news to be released include NY Fed Manufacturing Survey, Michigan Sentiment Survey, and Industrial Production.
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22 June-The Japanese Yen (JPY) was up 0.2% against the USD reaching a near 4.5 year high of 123.70 as investors continue to source the low yielding currency. Overall the USDJPY traded with a range of a low 123.40 and a high of 123.75 before closing the day at 123.67 in the New York session.
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25 June-U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed against a basket of currencies as little data was released from U.S. markets to end the week. Despite positive data seen in the previous session, the USD eased against the Euro as investors remained confident that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at 5.25% for the remainder of the year. Analysts continued with bias towards currencies with the highest probability of a rate hike. In U.S. Share markets the NASDAQ was down by 28 points (-1.07%) whilst the Dow Jones was also down by 185.58 points (-1.37%). Crude oil gained by US$0.43 a barrel to US$69.08. Looking ahead, key data in the form of Existing Home Sales will be sure to generate plenty of interest as further focus will surround the housing sector. Forecasts are at 5.945 mio for the month of May, slightly down from the previous 5.99 mio.
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26 June- The Japanese Yen (JPY) initially recovered some of its recent losses against major currencies with some investors confident that the currency recent decline was over sought. In other news, the JPY was also supported by Sunday’s annual report from the International Bank for International Settlements, which said that there was ‘clearly something anomalous’ in the low-yielding yen’s recent slide to multiyear lows against a range of currencies. Overall the USDJPY traded with a range of a low 123.31 and a high of 123.95 before closing the day at 123.56 in the New York sessi
02 Jule-U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) mixed data out of the US continued to cloud the greenback. Several economic indicators, including the Core PCE price index, Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment had no impact on the market despite better than expected numbers; mainly due to the fact that Fed indicated that it is still concerned about inflation. Yet last weeks neutral statement from the Fed Reserve strengthened the markets view that rates will be on hold for some time. In US share markets, the NASDAQ fell by -5.14 points, whilst the Dow Jones also fell by 13.66 points. Crude Oil rose to fresh 10 month highs, jumping by US$1.11 a barrel to US$70.68. Looking ahead, key data will be released out of the US in the form of Manufacturing ISM, with markets expecting a relatively flat figure of 55.0
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17 May-U.S. Dollar Trading (USD)rallied broadly overnight having hit a one-week low against the Euro. With recent concerns of a slowing housing sector in the U.S., the dollar was supported by reports indicating stronger than expected growth at 1.528 mio (Prior: 1491 revised; Forecast: mio) for the month of April. Furthermore, Industrial Production also came in better than expected showing at 0.7 (Forecast: 0.3) for the month of April. In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ rose by 22.13 (+0.88%) and the Dow Jones also rose by 103.69 (+0.77%). Crude oil eased by US$0.62 a barrel to US$62.55 as further as Nigerian instability diminished. Key data in the shape of Philly Fed and Michigan Sentiment set for release with expectations of 3.0 (Prior: 0.2) and 86.7 (Prior: 87.1) respectively.