GBPUSD Technical Analysis 02.02 - 09.02: Correction to Finsih or Breakdown to Start? - page 2
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newdigital, 2014.02.06 13:30
2013-02-06 12:00 GMT (or 13:00 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
==========
UK interest rates remain on hold
UK interest rates have been kept unchanged at their record low of 0.5% by the Bank of England.
The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) also left the £375bn quantitative easing stimulus programme unchanged.
"Although the BoE shows every sign of wanting to keep interest rates low for quite a while longer, the economy is tightening faster than they had expected," said Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Berenberg.
"We expect the first rate hike in the first quarter of 2015, with a 30% chance of an increase in the fourth quarter of 2014."
Please note - GBPUSD is the most risky pair to trade the news
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newdigital, 2014.02.06 14:50
2013-02-06 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens More Than Expected In December
The U.S. trade deficit widened by more than expected in the month of December, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday.
The Commerce Department said the trade deficit widened to $38.7 billion in December from a revised $34.6 billion in November. Economists had expected a deficit of $36.0 billion.
The wider than expected trade deficit came as the value of imports edged up by 0.3 percent, while the value of exports dropped by 1.8 percent.
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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.02.06
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GBPUSD M5 : 40 pips price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event
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newdigital, 2014.02.07 11:09
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)
The U.S. economy is expected to add another 180K jobs in January, but another dismal print may undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar, especially if we don’t see a large upward revision to the 74K December reading.
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 02/07/2014 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 180K
Previous: 74K
Forecast: 150K to 200K
Why Is This Event Important:
Nevertheless, a positive employment report may encourage the Federal Reserve to reduce the asset-purchase program by another $10B at the March 19 meeting, and the central bank may look to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later as Fed officials see a stronger recovery in 2014.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFP Increases 180K+; Unemployment Holds at 6.7%
- Need to see red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short trade on EURUSD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: December Employment Report Falls Short of Market Forecast- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEURUSD :
Despite strong ADP Employment Figures ahead of the NFP release last month, US Non-Farm Payrolls for December came in much weaker than market expectations and pushed the USDollar lower across the board. Surveys called for a net positive 196K reading, but figures indicated a weak 74K change. It is worth noting that further potential downside was at least limited by a strong upward revision from 203K to 241K for the November period. Market participants will surely be looking for another upward revision here in addition to a strong print to support the greenback. As for insight into this print, the ADP Employment Figures on Wednesday came in slightly below expectations, but the ISM Non-Manf. Employment component saw a month over month increase. With US yields, USD/JPY and the S&P 500 all at critical levels, a disappointing print could prove disastrous for the greenback moving into the end of the trading week. The lack of a strong upward revision for the December figure will also likely be viewed poorly by market participants.
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newdigital, 2014.02.07 15:00
2013-02-07 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
Nation adds 113,000 jobs
- Jobless rate falls to five-year low
- Construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining see gains
The nation added a net of 113,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, dropping the unemployment rate of 6.6 percent, lowest in the past five years, the the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says Friday. Employment grew in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining. Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.2 million, and the unemployment rate, at 6.6 percent, changed little in January. Since October, the jobless rate has decreased by 0.6 percentage point.