Quick View - Economic events of the current day - General

MasterForexBroker 2014.05.20 07:08 #601

Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 20/05/2014

Bundesbank Waits For German Economy Slow Down

On Monday 19 May the US dollar was traded downwards vs. most major currencies, having lost 0.05% to the dollar index amid absence of any significant macro statistics in the USA and the Euro-zone. The euro was traded upwards, whereas the pound sterling and the yen had almost no changes according to the results of the day.

The US dollar slightly decreased vs. the euro, but increased vs. the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar, having almost no changes vs. other major currencies. The US dollar gained back almost all the losses of the beginning of the day during the American session. Decrease of US Treasury Yield negatively affected the US dollar in the first half of the day. 10-Year US Treasury Yield dropped on Monday to 2.50 – the lowest rate since July 2013.

On Monday the euro was traded upwardly vs. the US dollar, but lost part of the losses after the speech of ECB’s Yves Mersch who announced that possibility of taking measures of monetary policy easing at ECB’s June Meeting considerably increased. ECB has all the tools for further policy easing, and all the members of the Governing Council are of the same mind about using it in order to fight with risks of low inflation.

Euro-zone Construction reduced in March by 0.6% in comparison with February after 4 months of growth. Especially tense decrease in the construction sector was noticed in Germany – the largest Euro-zone economy. According to Bundesbank monthly report released on Monday German economy growth deceleration is expected in the second quarter. Increased risks in developing countries and geopolitical uncertainty in Eastern Europe also complicate the situation for the country’s economy.

The pound sterling had almost no changes according еще у results of the day before the release of Tuesday Inflation Rate data in the UK. Acceleration of annual inflation growth rate to 1.8% in comparison with 1.6% in March is expected. Rightmove House Price in the UK continued its growth for the fifth month in a row. Rightmove House Price Index increased in May by 3.6% m/m which appeared to be the highest monthly growth rate since April 2002.

The yen increased to its high vs. the US dollar for over 3.5 months amid decrease of stock markets, but then negated almost the whole growth gained during the day. Core Machinery Orders in Japan increased in March by 19.1% in relation to the previous month, having trice exceeded the forecast. Strong data decrease the possibility of new stimulation measures on the part of Bank of Japan which is positive for the yen. On Tuesday two-day BOJ Meeting will begin, the results of the meeting will be announced on Wednesday.

The New Zealand dollar was upwardly traded in the first half of the day amid positive Producer Price Index and Services PMI in New Zealand, but then it lost the whole growth. PPI Input increased in the 1st quarter by 1% q/q, having twice exceeded the expectations. PPI Output also exceeded the expectations of growth by 0.4% q/q having strengthened its positions by 0.9%.

Performance Services Index increased in April by 0.4 p. to 58.9 p. – the highest reading for over more than 6 years since November 2007. Acceleration of Services Activity is one more sign of continuing economy growth in the country. Market participants wait for the results of milk auction GlobalDairyTrade. Dairy production is one of the most important spheres in the country’s economy – about 25% falls on New Zealand’s export. Since February milk prices dropped by 20% approximately. The Australian dollar was traded downwards on Monday before the Tuesday release of the last RBA Meeting Minutes.

By MasterForex Company

Gross Domestic Product - Trade Balance - New Consumer Price Index -

MasterForexBroker 2014.05.21 07:47 #602

Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 21/05/2014

The Australian Dollar Was a Leader of Decrease

On Tuesday 20 May the YS dollar was traded mixed, having almost no changes to the dollar index amid absence of any significant macro statistic in the USA. The pound sterling strengthened its positions amid Consumer Price Index in the UK. The Australian dollar dropped after the release of the last RBA Meeting Minutes.

The US dollar decreased vs. the yen and the pound sterling, but increased vs. commodity currencies, having slightly changed vs. other major currencies. FOMC Member William Dudley announced on Tuesday that interest rates growth will be relatively slow; however, it will depend on economy situation. There will be a considerable period of time between asset purchase initiated by FOMC in autumn and the first increase of interest rate.

The euro was traded with a slight decrease amid weak Producer Price Index in Germany. PPI decreased in April by 0.1% in comparison with the previous month, whereas no changes were expected. PPI reduced by 0.9% at an annual rate against the expectations of decrease by 0.8% - the fall of the index lasts for the 9th month in a row.

Industrial Orders also increased in March less than expected (+1.4%m/m) – by 1.3%. ECB's Erkki Liikanen announced that if it is necessary measures of policy softening may be taken in the course of the next meeting – for example large-scale asset purchase program.

The pound sterling strengthened amid Consumer Price Index in the UK, which exceeded the expectations. Annual growth rate of Consumer Price Index accelerated in April to 1.8% in comparison with 1.6% in March, whereas growth only by 1.7% was expected – the growth occurred for the first time for over a year. The highest price index since April 2009 was fixed in March. Core Consumer Price Index Ex Food and Energy increased in April by 2% against the forecast of growth by 1.8%. The growth of prices was mainly entailed by transport expenditure increase by 2% due to conveyance and transport rate increase.

At the same time Retail Price Index and Housing Price Index in the UK appeared to be worse than expected. Retail Prices increased in April by 2.5% y/y which appeared to be less than it was predicted. PPI Output increased in April by 0.6% y/y against the expectations of growth by 0.7%. ONS Housing Price Index in the UK increased in March by 8% y/y, whereas growth by 10.7% was predicted.

The Australian dollar was a leader of the fall on Tuesday after the release of the last RBA Meeting Minutes. RBA predicts deceleration of country’s economy growth rate due to reduction of investments to mining industry, export deceleration, and budget reduction. GDP growth will be lower than the trend of the nearest quarters. RBA’s Assistant Governor Guy Debelle announced that he expects for decrease of capital inflow in relation with 10-year investment boom finish in mining industry which gave support to the Australian currency. Further decrease of AUD will help to achieve balanced economy growth.

Additional pressure for AUD was brought by the release in one of the main financial editions of the country about the fact that S&P may revise Australian “AAA” credit score during next two years if the country will not reduce the budget deficit. Later S&P clarified that in short-term Australian rating is not under threat. Besides iron ore prices dropped on Tuesday to the lowest rate for over 20 months.

The Canadian dollar was traded downwards amid weak Wholesales Sales in Canada. Wholesales sales dropped by 0.4% in relation to the previous months against the expectations of growth. Decrease of Retail Sales happened for the first time for over 2 months. On Thursday Canadian Retail Sales data will be released. The yen strengthened its positions amid decrease of stock markets which increased demand for save heaven currency. Futures at Nikkei 225 dropped on Tuesday by 1%, having decreased lower than 14000.

By MasterForex Company

Consumer Price Index - Wholesale Sales - Canada Trade Balance - USA

MasterForexBroker 2014.05.22 10:17 #603

Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 22/05/2014

The US Dollar Dropped After the Release of FOMC Meeting Minutes

On Wednesday 21 May the US dollar was traded volatile, having almost no changes to the dollar index amid release of the last FOMC Meeting Minutes. The pound sterling strengthened its positions amid positive UK Retail Sales.

The US dollar was traded upwards vs. most major currencies almost the whole day, and it strengthened its positions to the dollar index by more than 0.3% - but then it lost almost all the growth after the release of the last FOMC Meeting Minutes. Altogether April Meeting Minutes had no considerable changes in comparison with the March Meeting. FOMC Members discussed the strategy of stimulation program tapering and spoke up for further testing of instruments of monetary policy. However, there were no allusions to probable data of the first rate increase or the possible growth ratio.

The euro refreshed 3-month low vs. the US dollar after the release of Euro-Zone Current Account, the proficit of which dropped to the lowest rate for over 6 months due to the reduction of visible trade of balance. Seasonal adjusted Current Account proficit of the Euro-Zone reduced in March to €18.8B from €21.8B in February against the expectations of growth.

At the same time Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence continued to grow in May for the third month in a row, having reached the highest rate since October 2007 despite reserved tense situation between the EU and Russia. Preliminary Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence strengthened its positions to -7.1 against -8.6 in April, having considerably exceeded the expectations. The euro gained back part of the losses after the release of FOMC Meeting Minutes.

The pound sterling continued its growth for the fifth day in a row amid positive UK Retail Sales. Retail Sales increased in April by 1.3% in relation to the previous month, having almost trice exceeded the expectations. Retail Sales annual rate increased by 6.9% which appeared to be the highest growth for over 10 years since May 2004. About 5.7% of GDP fall s to the share of Retail Sales.

Last Bank of England Meeting Minutes demonstrated that there are first signs of disputes among MPC Members, and there are different opinions in terms of the right course of monetary policy. According to the Meeting Minutes some MPC Members consider that policy stiffening should be started earlier in order the Central Bank might start gradual interest rate increase if the economy growth stays intense. Gradual rate increase may speak for the necessity of earlier policy stiffening.

The yen strengthened its positions after the announce of the results of two-day Bank of Japan Meeting, but then it negated the whole growth amid stock markets strengthening during the American session. BOJ left monetary policy without changes by solid voice and announced that current easing program has the desirable effect. BOJ signaled the growth of confidence in economy recovery and increased the estimation of capital investments.

BOJ’s Governor Kuroda announced on Wednesday that there are no reasons for the yen’s strengthening – however, BOJ will not try to affect foreign exchange courses by means of monetary policy and follow the example of other Central Banks. Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance Total appeared to be worse than expected due to considerable impost growth. Trade Balance deficit reduced in April to 0.81 trillion а нуты from 1.45 trillion of yen in March; however a more considerable reduction of the deficit to 0.65 trillion was predicted.

The Australian dollar decreased on Wednesday to the lows of early May vs. the US dollar after the release of weak Australian Consumer Confidence, but till the end of the day it negated the whole growth. Westpac Consumer Sentiment sharply dropped in May by 6.8% in comparison with April – to the lowest rate for over almost three years since August 2011. AUD was also pressed by the fall of iron ore prices to its 20-month low. The New Zealand dollar was negatively affected by decrease of dairy products prices which dropped on Wednesday during GlobalDairyTrade auction by 1.8% in comparison with the previous auction.

By MasterForex Company

Bank of England Minutes Trade Balance - USA Executing Trades - Trading

MasterForexBroker 2014.05.23 09:15 #604

Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 23/05/2014

Euro-Zone Manufacturing Activity Dropped to 6-Month Low

On Thursday 22 May the US dollar was traded upwards vs. most major currencies, having added 0.2% to the dollar index amid controversial US data. The euro was traded downwards amid weak German and Euro-Zone Manufacturing Activity. The pound sterling dropped after the release of the UK GDP.

The US Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI rose in May to three months high at the level of 56.2 p. in comparison with 55.4 p. in April, having considerably exceeded the expectations. CB Leading Index increased in April by 0.4% m/m, having exceeded the expectations of growth by 0.3% - the index strengthens its positions for the third month in a row due to improvement of Housing Market and financial sector terms. Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity strengthened its positions to 10 p. in comparison with 7 p. in April, whereas no changes were expected.

The US Existing Home Sales increased last month for the first time this year, which may point acceleration of Housing Market recovery. Sales increased in April by 1.3% m/m to three-month high at the level of 4.65 m of houses in comparison with 4.59 m in March, though a slightly more growth by 2.2% m/m was expected. The decrease of requirements for mortgages, decrease of employment, and record low mortgage rate helped to calm the situation of Housing Market in anticipation of spring period of active sales which will be crucial for the US Housing Market.

The US Labor Market appeared to be worse than expected – the number of Initial Unemployment Claims increased from 7-years low after two weeks of decrease. The US Initial Unemployment Claims last week increased by 28,000 to 326,000, whereas growth only to 310,000 was expected. Four-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims decreased by 1,000 – from 323,500 to 322,500. Total number of unemployed reached the lowest rate since the recession period, and this fact points general of the US Labor Market situation.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index sharply dropped in April lower than the zero level which corresponds with the growth of the trend. The index decreased in April to -0.32 from +0.34 in March, whereas decrease only to zero level was expected.

The euro was traded downwards amid weak German and Euro-Zone Manufacturing Activity which dropped to 6-month low. French Activity dropped lower than 50 p. which dropped above 50 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.

Euro-Zone Flash Composite PMI decreased in May from 3-years high at the level of 54 p. to 53.9 p. which coincided with the expectations. At the same time German and Euro-Zone Services PMI increased to 35-month high having exceeded the expectations. ECB’s Weidmann announced that ECB is ready to use unconventional measures of fighting with risks of Euro-Zone low inflation.

The pound sterling dropped after the release of the second estimation of the UK GDP growth which was confirmed at the level of +0.8% q/q, +3.1% y/y, however many components were revised. Exports, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, and Industrial Production were decreased – whereas Private Consumption, Government Spending, and Construction were upwardly revised. Industrial Orders appeared to be worse than expected – CBI Industrial Order Expectations increased from -1 in April to 0 in May against the expectations of growth to 4.

The Australian dollar rocketed after the release of Chinese Manufacturing PMI which appeared to increase to 5-month high, however then it dropped amid US dollar’s strengthening. Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI sharply increased in May to 49.7 p. in comparison with 48.1 p. in April, having considerably exceeded the expectations. Chinese data led to growth of Asian stock markets and weakening of the yen to weekly low vs. the US dollar. The Canadian dollar increased on Thursday before the Friday release of Inflation rate, having ignored weak Canadian Retail Sales report, which demonstrated the drop of sales in March by 0.1% m/m against the expectations of growth – but previous month data was revised upwards.

By MasterForex Company

CBI Industrial Order Expectations Purchasing Managers Index - Industrial Output - United

MasterForexBroker 2014.05.27 07:24 #605

Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 27/05/2014

German Consumer Confidence Is Still Persistently High

On Monday 26 May the US dollar was traded slightly downwards vs. most major currencies amid absence of any significant macro statistics in most countries and weekend in the USA and the UK. The euro slightly strengthened its positions amid stable German Consumer Confidence.

The euro dropped in the beginning of the day vs. the US dollar in comparison with the lows of the previous week amid the results of the European Parliament elections, where far-right and European skeptics achieved high results, whereas traditional parties sustained considerable losses. This may complicate further work of the Parliament and put ECB’s efforts of further economy stimulation under threat.

The euro slightly strengthened its positions after the release of German Consumer Confidence, which continues to stay at the highest rate for over 7 years for the 4th month in a row – and it didn’t decrease in contrast to previously released ZEW and IFO indices. According to Gfk German Consumer Confidence Leading Index stayed in June at the level of 8.5 p. as it was expected. Persistent tension in Ukraine has not sufficiently influence German Consumer Sentiment, and strong Labor Market promoted strengthening of optimism in terms of economy situation development.

On Monday at ECB’s Conference in Portugal ECB’s President Mario Draghi marked low inflation rate in the Euro-Zone and announced that ECB will not allow its preservation for a long time. “Besides traditional tools associated with the change of interest rate, ECB has opportunity of long-term lending banks and purchase of asset covered bonds, as well as large-scale asset purchase. The choice of time is essential in this case” – Draghi said.

This statement became another sign of the fact that during the next Meeting, which will take place next Thursday, ECB may take new measures of monetary policy easing. Bloomberg survey, which was held last week, demonstrated that 90% of economists wait for monetary policy easing at ECB’s Meeting on 5 June. According to another survey 29 from 47 economists wait for ECB Interest Rate and Deposit Facility Rate decrease at the same time. JPMorgan believes that decrease of both rates is taken into account in the pair of EUR/USD.

The New Zealand dollar got under pressure in the beginning of the day after the release of New Zealand Trade Balance, which appeared to be worse than expected in April - but then it negated almost the whole decrease amid some weakness of the US dollar. New Zealand export dropped in April by 11% m/m. Trade Balance proficit decreased last month to 534 m of New Zealand dollars in comparison with 920 m in March, whereas decrease only to 667 m was forecasted. Balance proficit is fixed for the 6th month in a row.

The yen had almost no reaction for the release of Bank of Japan 30 April Meeting Minutes and speech of BOE Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata. BOE Meeting Minutes brought no surprise. Kikuo Iwata announced that BOE get more and more positive reaction for current easing program and persistently approaches the target inflation rate of 2%.

By MasterForex Company

Economic Sentiment Indicator - Trade Balance - New Westpac Consumer Confidence -

MasterForexBroker 2014.05.28 06:54 #606

Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 28/05/2014

The US Durable Goods Orders Grow For The Third Month In A Row

On Tuesday 27 May the US dollar strengthened its positions vs. most major currencies, having added less than 0.1% to the dollar index amid macro statistics in the USA. The pound sterling dropped after the release of BBA Mortgage Approvals.

Durable Goods Orders, Housing Market, and Business Activity appeared to be better than expected. Durable Goods Orders in the USA, Leading Index, and Investment Activity increased in April by 0.8% m/m against the expectations of decrease by 0.7%. Previous month data was revised upwards.

However, the growth of Orders in April was mainly due to the increase of military orders, which rocketed by 39.3%. Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense dropped by 0.8%. Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation increased by 0.1% m/m, whereas no changes were expected. Key indicator of future business investments – Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Ex Aircraft – dropped in April by 1.2% m/m after the growth by 4.7% in March.

The US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 HPI increased in March by 12.4% y/y, having exceeded the expectations of growth by 11.8%. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index strengthened its positions in March for the first time after four months of decrease. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) also appeared to be better than it was forecasted. FHFA Housing Price Index increased in March by 0.7% m/m against the expectations of growth by 0.5%.

CB Consumer Confidence strengthened its positions in May to 83 p. in comparison with 81.7 p. in April which coincided with the expectations. Current Assessment, Labor Market in particular, and Economy Prospects Expectations, Employment, and Personal Finance appeared to be more positive in May than in the previous month.

The US Markit Flash Services PMI reached in May the highest rate for over 26 months: 58.4 p. in comparison with 55 p. in April. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was left unchanged in May at the level of 7 p., whereas decrease to 5 p. was expected.

The euro was traded downwards amid speech of ECB’s officials who exasperated the expectations of monetary policy easing, though at the beginning of the day the euro slightly strengthened its positions. ECB’s Nowotny announced that the Euro-Zone Inflation Rate is considerably lower the target ECB’s rate of 2%, and it is so low, that there is a risk of economy growth decrease. Nowotny indicated that the discussions held incline to decrease of interest rates. ECB’s President Draghi noted that ECB keeps in mind the risks connected with too long periods of low inflation, but he doesn’t see the risk of deflation.

The pound sterling dropped amid release of BBA Mortgage Approvals in the UK. According to BBA, Mortgage Approvals dropped in April to 8-month low against the expectations of growth. Mortgages decrease last month to 42,200 in comparison with 45,000 in March. At the same time New Mortgages turned into cash increased to £12.2 И against £11 И in March, and it is the highest monthly total since August 2008.

The Australian dollar strengthened its positions on Tuesday to weekly high vs. the US dollar amid increase of iron ore prices – iron ore is the largest item of Australian export. Iron ore prices repulsed from lows of 20 months after the comments of Chinese prime-minister at the end of last week where he pointed the increased readiness for taking stimulation measures considering the downward risks.

By MasterForex Company

Consumer Price Index - Durable Goods Orders - Employment Cost Index -

MasterForexBroker 2014.06.02 07:16 #607

Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 2/06/2014

Main Events of the Coming Week

On Friday 30 May the US dollar decreased vs. most major currencies, having lost 0.17% to the dollar index amid weak US Consumer Sentiment. The US Personal Spending also reduced in April for the first time this year.

UoM Consumer Sentiment decreased in May to 81.9 p. in comparison with 84.1 p. in April – and appeared to be higher the initial evaluate of 81.8 p., but considerably higher the expectations at the level of 82.5 p. Current Assessment considerably fell in May as well. Food prices growth, high prices for oil, and slow growth of wages decreased Consumer Sentiment.

The US Personal Spending sharply reduced in April by 0.1% m/m against the expectations of growth by 0.2%. Personal Spending increased in March by 1% m/m (the highest rate since August 2009). Personal Spending decreased of the first time for over a year which became the new sign of the US economy slowdown after several negative months when the data was corrupted by the deterrent weather. At the same time Chicago PMI increased in May to 7-month high at the level of 65.5 p. from 63 p. in April against the expectations of decrease.

The pound sterling strengthened its positions on Friday amid growth of the UK Consumer Confidence to the highest rate for over 9 years since April 2005. GfK Consumer Sentiment increased in May to zero in comparison with -3 in April, having exceeded the expectations of growth to -2 p. The euro also increased despite the decrease of inflation rate in Spain and Italy. According to preliminary data annual inflation growth rate dropped in May – in Italy from 0.6% to 0.5%, and in Spain – from 0.3% to 0.2%.

The Canadian dollar decreased amid the Canadian economy growth. Annual GDP growth deteriorated in March to 8-month low at the level of 2.1% from 2.3% in February, whereas no changes were expected. The Canadian Quarterly GDP annualized slowed down in the first quarter to 1.2% in comparison with 2.7% in the previous quarter and the forecast of 1.8%. The lowest growth rate for over 5 quarter was mainly due to sharp decrease of investment and export.

The yen strengthened its positions after the release of Japanese inflation rate, but then it negated the whole growth. Japanese inflation accelerated in April to the highest rate since 1991, whereas industrial production and household spending dropped after the increase of sales tax. Consumer Price Index increased in April to 3.4% y/y in comparison with the growth by 1.6% in March.

According to the results of the week the US dollar demonstrated mixed dynamics vs. major currencies and had almost no changes to the dollar index. The US dollar decreased vs. the Australian dollar, the yen, and the Canadian dollar; increased vs. the New Zealand dollar and the pound sterling; and had almost no changes vs. the euro and the Swiss franc. Weak economy growth rate and the US Consumer Confidence put additionally pressurized the US dollar. According to the results of May the US dollar added slightly more than 1% to the dollar index, and the dynamics was mixed as well: the US dollar increased vs. major European currencies and NZD, but decreased vs. the yen, CAD, and AUD.

During the coming first week of the month there will be a lot of important data released, including the US Non-Farm Payrolls, and the Meeting of four major Central Banks which will also take place this week. The major event will be the release of the key US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday; preliminary ADP will be released on Wednesday. On Monday ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending will be released; on Tuesday – Industrial Orders; on Wednesday – Trade Balance, ISM Services PMI and Beige Book; on Thursday – weekly Unemployment Claims.

The major event in the Euro-Zone will be the Meeting of the European Central Bank, the results of which will be announced in Thursday. Decrease of all three ECB rates is expected as well. ECB will probably take other measures of easing as well which will be directed for acceleration of economy growth and inflation rate. On Tuesday important preliminary inflation rate will be released in the Euro-Zone – no changes of inflation rate are expected (0.7% y/y). On Monday Final Manufacturing PMI will be released; and on Wednesday – Final Services PMI; on Tuesday – Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate; on Wednesday – Revised GDP of the first quarter; and on Thursday – Retail Sales.

On Monday in German preliminary Inflation Rate will be released; on Thursday – Industrial Orders, and on Friday – Trade Balance and Industrial Production. In the UK Manufacturing PMI, Construction PMI, and Services PMI will be released in the first three days. On Monday BOE Monetary & Financial Statistics will be released; and on Friday – Trade Balance. On Thursday the results of Monthly BOE Meeting will be announced – no policy changes are expected. On Wednesday and Thursday G7 Meeting in Brussels will take place.

On Tuesday in China Non-Manufacturing PMI and HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI will be released; and on Sunday 8 June – Trade Balance. On Tuesday in Australia Retail Sales will be released, and RBA will announce the results of its Meeting about rates; on Wednesday GDP for the first quarter will be released; and on Thursday – Trade Balance. On Wednesday in Canada Trade Balance will be released; on Thursday – Building Permits and Ivey PMI; and on Friday – Labor Market report. On Wednesday the results of the BOC Meeting about the rates will be released.

By MasterForex Company

Consumer Price Index - Unemployment Rate - USA Unemployment Rate - Australia

MasterForexBroker 2014.06.02 07:21 #608