Lira Update USDTRY

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Jason Jenkins
Jason Jenkins  

USDTRY is making new highs as we remain long and this pair looks to have much more upside. I like the current uptrend on the daily chart and the monthly cycle continues to cycle higher.

Here's the current long-term uptrend as per the monthly chart:

The daily chart here shows our most recent actions, we remain long and will continue to ride this uptrend higher.

There's no double Turkey and Erdogan will remain a key player in current upswing in the civil unrest and international war cycle. See
Here's the latest headlines today on the most recent developing situation concerning the crackdowns on the media, internet access and Kurdish leaders.
Freedom of expression and the free press are under threat in Turkey. Last Saturday, the government closed down Tîroj, a Kurdish and Turkish literary magazine I had been due to contribute to. Tîroj (“light beam” in Kurdish) was special to me as it is published in Kurdish, my mother tongue, and a language which has been forbidden in schools and government institutions for 100 years.

But it was not alone. Fourteen other media outlets, including Jinha, an all-female Kurdish news agency, and Evrensel Kültür, a socialist cultural magazine, were also shut down.
The government has been using the attempted coup on 15 July as an excuse to silence anyone who is critical of the ruling AKP party. The ongoing state of emergency has granted the government extraordinary powers: the European convention of human rights has been temporarily suspended and the period in which suspects can be detained has been extended to 30 days. The authorities have arrested 37,000 people, including 150 journalists and writers. They have closed down more than 200 media outlets and publishing houses, more than 100 universities and hospitals, and expelled 100,000 teachers, academics and civil servants. Maybe that’s why president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on the night of the coup attempt, said: “This [coup] is a gift from God to us.”

In the beginning they targeted supporters of the “Gülen movement”, who were allegedly behind the coup attempt. The funny thing is that the pro-Islam Gülenists have been Erdoğan’s best ally for the past 15 years. They caused a great deal of harm while working together, but now they are fighting each other. Having got rid of Gülenist elements, the government is now coming down hard on the more traditional foes: Kurds, Alawites, secularists and socialists.

Clearly Erdogan should be the focus as he is clearly acting as and establishing himself as a dictator of Turkey with the vision of rebuilding the Ottoman Empire.

The latest from Bloomberg shows Turkey's 10 year yield at the highest levels of all the emerging markets outside of Latin America with CDS spreads blowing out once again.

I would expect more of the same for some time to come and therefore we will stay core short the Lira.

Marco vd Heijden
Marco vd Heijden  

Troubles in Turkey.

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