The Top Events/Releases for next week - page 4
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Top 5 Economic Calendar Events for October 24–28
1. US GDP (Q3 Advance)
The advance US Q3 GDP will be released on Friday October 28th at 08:30 EST.
The latest GDP data will be important for overall market sentiment, especially after generally disappointing figures for the first and second quarter GDP data.
The second quarter GDP data was undermined by a weak reading for investment, although there was an upward revision to the original non-residential investment data.
This revision was significant given that weak capital spending has been a key concern for the Federal Reserve. A stronger reading for investment in the third-quarter data would provide an important boost to Federal Reserve confidence in the overall outlook.
There is the potential for a slowdown in personal spending after very strong data for the second quarter, while the trade data should provide some net support.
Inventories are likely to have a significant overall impact on the data given the risk of volatility.
There will be doubts whether the data will have a major impact on Fed expectations, but a solid release would give the FOMC some further backing for a December rate increase. Market reaction is likely to be more pronounced if the data is much weaker than expected.
The latest employment cost index will also be released at the same time and will give an important insight into the extent of upward pressure on wages costs.
2. Australian Consumer Prices
The latest Australian CPI data will be released on Wednesday local time (20:30 EST Tuesday).
The latest inflation data will be very important for the Australian dollar, especially as the data is only released quarterly. The very weak first-quarter inflation data helped trigger May’s interest rate cut, while the second-quarter data was broadly in line with expectations.
Both the headline and trimmed-mean underlying inflation data will be watched closely.
In the latest monetary policy minutes, Reserve Bank Governor Lowe stated that the next inflation data would be crucial for the policy decision at November’s policy meeting.
A lower than expected reading would increase speculation that there will be a further rate cut at the policy meeting in early November, while a stronger than expected reading would take a short-term rate cut off the table.
3. UK GDP (Q3 Advance)
The first estimate of UK Q3 GDP data will be released on Thursday October 27th at 04:30 EST.
The third-quarter GDP data will be watched closely, especially given the potential impact on short-term Bank of England policy expectations.
At the last policy meeting, the central bank increased its third-quarter GDP estimate to 0.3% from 0.1% previously and it was this lower estimate that was used in the August inflation report.
If the preliminary Q3 GDP estimate is stronger than 0.3%, there will tend to be a further upward revision to the Bank of England’s short-term growth estimates, which will tend to feed through into the updated forecasts in the November inflation report.
Any upward revision to GDP forecasts would also tend to lessen the potential for a further relaxation of monetary policy by the central bank at November’s meeting, especially as Sterling weakness will also lead to a significant upward revision to inflation forecasts.
Lower than expected data would increase speculation over a further rate cut at the November meeting.
Bank of England Governor Carney is also due to testify to the House of Lords economic committee on Tuesday October 25th, which will also have an important impact on Sterling sentiment, although he will be very wary of making substantive policy comments ahead of the November meeting.
4. US Durable Goods Orders
The latest US durable goods report will be released on Thursday October 27th at 08:30 EST.
After a generally weak series of readings for 2016, the last two monthly releases have shown some signs of stabilisation, especially in orders for core capital goods. Levels of core orders are particularly important for underlying growth trends.
The Federal Reserve remains very uneasy over the levels of capital spending, and durable goods orders are an important indicator of underlying investment levels.
The headline data is prone to high monthly volatility and the underlying data tends to be a more useful indicator, although the aircraft orders data can also be seen as a significant indicator of Boeing’s competitiveness in global markets.
A robust reading for orders would increase Federal Reserve confidence in tightening monetary policy, while a weak set of data would give the doves more ammunition for delaying a hike.
The regional business surveys overall have shown tentative evidence that capital spending levels are improving from a relatively low base.
5. Japan Consumer Prices
The latest Japanese consumer inflation readings will be released on Friday October 28th local time (19:30 EST Thursday). The Bank of Japan’s core inflation reading will be released on Friday October 28th at 01:00 EST.
The Bank of Japan is still substantially short of reaching its inflation target of reported inflation being at least 2%. The Bank’s own reading of underlying inflation was at 0.4% last month, while national underlying inflation was at -0.5%.
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda has also suggested that the bank’s target of hitting its inflation target could be pushed back even further at the next policy meeting.
A weak set of inflation readings would increase the probability that there would be a further shift in the target date in the bank’s regular policy meeting due to be held early the following week.
There would be mixed policy implications as the bank has suggested that the rate of bond purchases could be slowed if there was a significant drop in long-term bond yields below zero.
At this stage, the central bank is more likely to maintain the rate of purchases to avoid market instability.
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1. US Federal Reserve Meeting
The latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision and statement will be released on Wednesday November 2nd at 14:00 EST.
The November Fed meeting will be the second to last meeting of 2016 and will have a slightly unusual feel given that most market attention is likely to be focused on the December meeting given the political environment.
There will be no economic projections from the Fed and no update to the Fed Funds rate forecasts or ‘dot plot’ given by individual members. Fed Chair Yellen will also not be holding a press conference following the meeting. The FOMC will, therefore, need to channel all its communication through the statement.
Given that the US Presidential election is due the following week, it will be extremely difficult for the FOMC to sanction an interest rate increase at this meeting as such a move would inevitably drag the Fed deeper into the political sphere.
The main focus should, therefore, be on hints surrounding the December meeting and how clear a signal the Fed wants to send that there is likely to be a hike at the next policy meeting.
In the October 2015 statement, the Fed made a specific reference to the following meeting: ‘In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at the next meeting, the committee will assess progress – both realised and expected – towards its objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation.’
Rates were then increased in December 2015 and a similar reference this time would increase expectations of a move at the December 2016 meeting.
Given the political constraints, it is possible that the main message will be included in the minutes, which will be released after the US elections. A lack of specific reference to December would trigger renewed doubts surrounding a December increase.
There is little chance that the hawks on the FOMC will relent in their call for higher rates. There would also be a very high degree of market turbulence if the Fed decided to raise rates at this meeting.
2. US Employment Report
The latest US employment report will be released on Friday November 4th at 08:30 EST.
The US employment report will inevitably trigger a substantial amount of short-term volatility. Assuming that the Fed does not increase rates at the November FOMC meeting, there will also be important implications for interest rate expectations.
Although there will be another employment report ahead of the December meeting, the data will still have an important impact in shaping expectations both for this year and next.
A solid report would keep the Fed on track for a December hike and an employment increase of around 150,000 would certainly be sufficient for the FOMC. A very strong report would increase speculation over a faster pace of rate increases next year.
The participation and unemployment rate will be crucial in determining whether the FOMC doves can continue to push for rates to be left unchanged in an attempt to push the unemployment rate even lower. The average earnings data will also be very important with any evidence of acceleration increasing upward pressure on the Fed to raise rates.
Beyond the direct Fed impact the data will also have important implications for confidence surrounding the US outlook with strong data likely to put significant upward pressure on bond yields and also potentially having an important impact on global yield expectations.
The latest US ISM reports will also be very important for underlying confidence with the manufacturing data on Tuesday and non-manufacturing release on Thursday.
3. Bank of England Monetary Policy Decision
The latest Bank of England monetary policy decision will be released on Thursday November 3rd at 08:00 EST.
This is the next episode in the so called ‘super Thursdays.’ There will be an announcement on interest rates, the asset-purchase programme and any other measures that the bank wants to take.
The minutes of the meeting will be released and the bank will also publish its latest inflation report. In addition, Bank Governor Carney will hold a press conference following the inflation report presentation.
Previously, the MPC statements indicated that a majority of members expected interest rates to be cut again before the end of 2016 if the economy developed in line with their expectations. Demand indicators have, however, been stronger than expected with third-quarter GDP growth higher than the bank’s upwardly-revised forecast. Carney also stated that there was a limit to the bank’s willingness to look through an inflation overshoot caused by Sterling weakness.
At the previous meeting, MPC members Forbes and McCafferty voiced concerns over the asset-purchase programme and it is possible that they will vote for bond buying to be suspended.
Carney will inevitably face further questions surrounding bank independence and relations with the government following a spat earlier this month. There will inevitably be very high volatility surrounding the release.
4. Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision
The latest Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement will be on Tuesday November 2nd (around 22:00 EST Monday).
There is no fixed time for the announcement and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will hold a press conference following the decision, also with no scheduled time.
Following the shift to yield-curve targeting at the previous meeting, the latest decision from the Bank of Japan will be important to gain a greater perspective on the bank’s policy and medium-term focus. Overall rhetoric surrounding bond purchases and yields will be crucial for medium-term expectations.
The inflation outlook will be important and whether the expected timeframe for meeting the inflation target of above 2% is extended further out to at least fiscal 2018.
The latest inflation data recorded a decline in the Bank of Japan’s core inflation reading to 0.2% from 0.4%, increasing pressure for further monetary easing.
There have been source reports that the bank will look to leave policy unchanged at this meeting, especially given the need to preserve ammunition in case the economy is subjected to further external shocks.
5. Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
The latest Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision is due on Tuesday November 1st local time (19:30 EST Tuesday).
This will be the second policy meeting for Reserve Bank Governor Lowe and the evidence overall does not suggest that there will be a radical departure in tone or policy stance.
The latest headline Australian inflation data was higher than expected with a 0.7% quarterly increase, although underlying readings were in line with expectations.
Overall, the bank will probably not see a pressing need to relax monetary policy further at this point.
Commentary on the overall economic outlook will be important with a particular focus on rhetoric surrounding the Australian dollar.
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For the week starting Monday October 31, 2016
1. US Presidential Election
The US Presidential election will be held on November 8th. The Congressional elections for one-third of the Senate and all of the House of Representatives will also be held on the same day.
Just over a week ago, Democrat contender Clinton appeared to be heading for a comfortable victory over Republican Trump, especially in the Electoral College.
There has been a major jolt in expectations following the FBI announcement that it has re-opened the investigation into e-mails sent by Clinton while she was Secretary of State.
Opinion polls overall still give Clinton the edge in national terms and the individual state breakdowns should also favour Clinton, but an overall narrowing of polls and a tightening race has disrupted market confidence.
There has also been a substantial amount of early voting, which should give an important edge to Clinton, but overall turnout levels could play a crucial role. Results will be declared state by state, which will inject a very high degree of drama and uncertainty if there is a close contest.
Markets will be wary of shifts in expectations during the counting process as individual states declare, although it is certainly possible that there will still be a very one-sided contest in electoral-college terms.
The congressional election will be important, especially as it will shape the relationship between the new President and Congress. There will be the potential for policy conflict if the Presidency and Congress are again split between parties. The make-up of Congress will also have potentially important implications for Federal Reserve appointments.
2. China Trade Report
The latest Chinese trade will be released Tuesday November 8th local time (around 22:00 EST Monday).
The Chinese trade data will be an important focus this month, especially after the much weaker than expected release last month. In dollar terms, there was a decline in exports to 10.0% on the year, while imports declined 1.9%. In yuan terms, there was an annual increase in imports, although exports fell 5.6%, the first decline for six months.
Sustained weakness in trade volumes would increase concerns surrounding both the Chinese and global outlook. The latest PMI data was, however, stronger than expected, both for the official and Caixin data. Stronger trends in the Chinese industrial sector should underpin imports, especially as there has been evidence of a strong demand for oil. The most likely outcome is that there will be a recovery in imports for October, while the export trends could remain disappointing.
Any improvement in trade volumes would help underpin global risk appetite.
There are also other important Chinese releases due with the latest data on currency reserves, likely to be released on November 7th, while the new loans data could be released late in the week.
The inflation readings are also scheduled for November 9th.
3. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Rate Decision
The latest RBNZ monetary policy decision will be released on Thursday local time (16:00 EST Wednesday).
There are strong expectations among investment banks that the RBNZ will cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) again at this meeting to help meet inflation forecasts.
There was, however, a stronger than expected employment report in the latest quarterly data. The latest dairy auction also recorded a strong increase in prices, which will also lessen pressure for a rate cut to improve the terms of trade.
There will be a significant change from this meeting with the RBNZ publishing its forecasts for the OCR. The projected path for rates could have a significant impact on the New Zealand dollar as markets assess medium-term expectations.
RBNZ Governor Wheeler will also hold a press conference following the decision.
4. Fed Vice-Chair Fischer Speech
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Fischer will speak on Friday November 11th in Santiago at 04:00 EST via satellite.
Comments from Federal Reserve speakers will continue to be watched closely in the short term.
These comments will be potentially important as it is the first speech scheduled by a key Fed official following the US Presidential and Congressional elections. There has inevitably been a high degree of reluctance to make substantive policy comments ahead of the vote, but the Fed will now be unshackled and able to make more detailed policy comments if it wants to give clearer guidance.
Markets will be looking for any specific comments on the December policy decision and any longer-term remarks surrounding likely policy in 2017.
5. US EIA Crude Oil Inventories Report
The latest EIA inventories report will be released on Wednesday November 9th at 10:30 EST.
Oil prices have been a big focus this week with a slide of over 8% as overall sentiment has weakened sharply. There have been increased concerns surrounding OPEC’s ability to deliver a cut in production at the end-November meeting.
The latest inventories data also had an important impact in undermining confidence with a record weekly build of 14.4mn barrels in the latest weekly release.
This week’s data will be watched very closely and another substantial build would further undermine sentiment. In contrast, there will be some important relief if there is a draw in stocks in the data.
Comments from OPEC members will also be a crucial focus during the week following reports on Friday that Saudi officials had threatened to ramp-up production if Iran refused to scale-back production plans.
OPEC officials will need to show serious commitment to production cuts to restore market confidence after the battering received this week. There is a strong probability of high volatility during the week.
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The highly-anticipated U.S. Presidential Election will be held on Tuesday. The Congressional Elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives will also be held on the same day.
The first exit polls, which are a projection, are expected to come out on Tuesday night at around 7:00PM ET (00:00 GMT on Wednesday). Results will be declared state by state. If the outcome is clear, the television networks are expected to make their official call at 11:00PM ET (04:00 GMT Wednesday).
Global financial markets were rattled last week by signs the U.S. presidential election race between Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump was tightening.
Opinion polls overall still give Clinton the edge in national terms, but an overall narrowing of polls and a tightening race has disrupted market confidence.
Many investors have long been betting on a victory for Clinton, but last week’s announcement that the FBI was renewing its investigation into her use of an unauthorized email server while Secretary of State cast fresh uncertainty onto the race.
Market players have tended to see Clinton as the candidate of the status quo, while there is greater uncertainty over what a Trump victory might mean for U.S. foreign policy, international trade deals and the domestic economy.
2. U.S. EIA Weekly Oil Supply Report
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its closely-watched weekly report on oil supplies for the week ended November 4 at 10:30AM ET (15:30 GMT) Wednesday.
Ahead of the official government report, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, will produce weekly data on oil supplies at 5:30PM ET (22:30GMT) on Tuesday.
Last week, the EIA reported that U.S. crude stockpiles increased by a whopping 14.4 million barrels, the most since records began, sending oil prices tumbling to five-week lows.
3. China October Trade Data
China is to release October trade figures at around 02:00GMT on Tuesday (9:00PM ET Wednesday). The report is expected to show that the country’s trade surplus widened to $51.7 billion last month from $42.0 billion in September.
Exports are forecast to have dropped 6.0% in October from a year earlier, following a decline of 10.0% a month ago, while imports are expected to fall 1.0%, after decreasing 1.9% in September.
Additionally, on Wednesday, the Asian nation will publish data on October consumer and producer price inflation. The reports are expected to show that consumer prices rose 2.1% last month, while producer prices are forecast to increase by 0.8%.
4. September U.K. Manufacturing Production
The Office for National Statistics is to produce data on U.K. manufacturing production for September at 09:30GMT (4:30AM ET) on Tuesday, amid expectations for a gain of 0.4%. Industrial output is forecast to inch up 0.1%.
The Bank of England held interest rates at a record-low 0.25% last week, as was widely expected, but hinted it could raise rates in the coming months if inflation accelerates too quickly.
5. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Review
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy update is due at 20:00GMT (3:00PM ET) on Wednesday. Most market analysts expect the central bank to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a record-low 1.75% to help meet inflation forecasts.
RBNZ Governor Wheeler will also hold a press conference following the decision.
1. Fed Chair Yellen Testimony
Fed Chair Yellen is due to testify to the US Congress on Thursday November 17th at 10:00 EST.
Yellen will testify to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress and the atmosphere will be highly charged following the recent US elections.
The Committee and markets will want evidence on the Fed’s thinking surrounding the economy and interest rates, especially as Yellen can no longer use the excuse of the forthcoming election to avoid making substantive comments.
The immediate focus will be on whether there are any comments on December’s FOMC meeting.
The commentary surrounding the 2017 outlook for the economy and monetary policy will also be extremely important given speculation that there will be higher inflation and a faster pace of monetary tightening if there is a more aggressive fiscal policy.
Yellen will be questioned on the wider budget stance and other potential elements of the Administration’s new economic policies.
The Fed chair will also, no doubt, be questioned over her future at the Federal Reserve, with the committee’s wider relationship with both Congress and the Administration likely to be a crucial feature of the next few months at least. The more dovish members on the committee are likely to be under intense scrutiny given Trump’s criticism of maintaining interest rates at very low levels.
2. US Consumer Prices
The US CPI data will be released on Thursday November 17th at 08:30 EST.
US inflation will be a very important short-term focus and will also be a crucial influence over the medium term. Significantly, the data will be released just ahead of Yellen’s congressional testimony and stakes have also been increased by the aggressive sell-off in US Treasuries.
From a shorter-term perspective, the Federal Reserve is still concerned that the overall inflation rate is too low and making only very slow progress towards the 2% target with a core PCE rate of 1.7% for October.
Given the high degree of political uncertainty, the Fed will be weighing up the potential for an interest rate increase at the December meeting.
The FOMC under Yellen has been extremely cautious in raising rates with any domestic or global event risk used to justify not raising rates. There is the potential for political uncertainty to be used as an excuse not to raise rates again.
A stronger than expected inflation rate would tend to nullify this argument and increase pressure on the Fed to tighten in December, especially as there would be a strong bond-market reaction. In these circumstances, there would be pressure for the Fed to deliver some hawkish rhetoric to keep inflation expectations in check and prevent the Fed falling behind the curve. A stronger than expected release would also ensure Yellen gets some tough questioning in Congress.
A lower than expected rate would give the Fed some immediate breathing space.
From a longer-term perspective, there will be concerns that Trump policies will put upward pressure on prices and markets will be less tolerant of higher rates, especially with expectations that medical care prices are likely to increase.
3. UK Consumer Prices
The latest UK Consumer prices (CPI) data will be released on Tuesday November 15th at 04:30 EST.
UK inflation data will also be a very important focus during the week. The annual rate increased to 1.0% for September from 0.6% previously due in part to a significant base effect.
The base effect is less pronounced for October’s data and the main focus will be on the extent to which Sterling losses since the UK referendum have put upward pressure on prices.
There will certainly be an important impact from energy prices that rose significantly, but the overall evidence suggests that retail price increases have been relatively contained.
A subdued monthly release would give some breathing space to the Bank of England, with monetary policy remaining on hold, but a stronger than expected release would create additional speculation that the Monetary Policy Committee could be forced into a policy tightening early next year.
The latest unemployment and average earnings data will be released on Wednesday with the retail sales data on Thursday.
4. US Retail Sales
The latest US retail sales data will be released on Tuesday November 15th at 08:30 EST.
US growth conditions will be an important focus in the short term, especially ahead of the December Federal Reserve meeting.
The overall impact is, however, likely to be overshadowed to some extent by the on-going political drama. There will also be some speculation that political uncertainty may have had some impact in curbing spending.
A weak retail sales release would give the Fed some rationale for delaying a rate increase, while strong data would suggest that demand is holding firm. Stronger consumer confidence data suggests overall spending is likely to have held firm.
Strong data would also increase expectations that the labour market is helping to underpin consumer spending and would suggest that there has been a net improvement in wages growth over the past few months.
5. Canada CPI Inflation Data
The latest Canadian CPI data will be released on Friday November 18th at 08:30 EST.
The Canadian inflation data will be watched very closely this month following weaker than expected data last month and the Bank of Canada statement at its October meeting that it had moved closer to a further easing of monetary policy.
Another weaker than expected inflation release would spark speculation that the Bank of Canada could ease monetary policy at the December 7th policy meeting.
There would still be a very high degree of uncertainty, especially with the trade outlook in a major period of flux following the US election outcome given Trump’s threat to disband NAFTA.
The Bank of Canada has been concerned over weak exports, but is likely to have major difficulties in modeling likely trends during 2017 given a much greater level of US uncertainty.
Stronger than expected data for the month would give the central bank more time to assess economic developments early next year.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is due to testify on the economic outlook before the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee on Thursday at 10:00AM ET (15:00GMT).
Her comments will be monitored closely for any new insight on policy. The Fed left interest rates unchanged earlier this month, in a widely expected decision, but signaled it could hike in December as the economy gathers momentum and inflation picks up.
In addition to Yellen, traders will also pay close attention to comments from a handful of Fed officials also scheduled to speak throughout the week to see if they endorse the idea of a December rate hike.
Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker and San Francisco Fed President John Williams speak Monday.
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer are on deck Tuesday.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speak Wednesday.
On Friday, New York Fed President William Dudley, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan are on tap.
Odds for a rate hike at the Fed's December 13-14 meeting currently stand at 81.1%, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.
2. U.S. October Retail Sales & Inflation
The Commerce Department will publish data on October retail sales at 8:30AM ET (13:30GMT) Tuesday. The consensus forecast is that the report will show retail sales rose 0.5% last month, after gaining 0.6% in September. Core sales are forecast to inch up 0.4%, after rising 0.5% a month earlier.
Rising retail sales over time correlate with stronger economic growth, while weaker sales signal a declining economy. Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of U.S. economic growth.
On Thursday, the Commerce Department will release October inflation figures at 8:30AM ET (13:30GMT). Market analysts expect consumer prices to ease up 0.4%, while core inflation is forecast to increase 0.2%.
On a yearly base, core CPI is projected to climb 2.2%. Core prices are viewed by the Fed as a better gauge of longer-term inflationary pressure because they exclude the volatile food and energy categories. The central bank usually tries to aim for 2% core inflation or less.
Rising inflation would be a catalyst to push the Fed toward raising interest rates.
Besides the retail sales and inflation reports, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on initial jobless claims, building permits, housing starts, producer prices, industrial production, as well as surveys on manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia and New York regions.
3. German, Euro Zone Q3 GDP
Germany will publish a preliminary report on third quarter economic growth at 07:00GMT (2:00AM ET) on Tuesday. The euro zone's largest economy is forecast to expand 0.3% in the July-September period, slowing from growth of 0.4% in the preceding quarter.
The euro zone will release revised third quarter growth data shortly afterwards at 10:00GMT (05:00AM ET). An initial estimate published late last month showed that the region's economy grew 0.3% in the three months ended September 30, unchanged from the second quarter.
4. Japan Third Quarter GDP
Japan will publish preliminary third quarter economic growth data at 23:50GMT (6:50PM ET) on Sunday. The report is expected to reveal that Japan's economy expanded by just 0.2% in the three months to September, maintaining pressure on policymakers to support the world's third largest economy.
5. U.K. CPI, Employment & Retail Sales for October
The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release data on consumer price inflation for October at 09:30GMT (4:30AM ET) on Tuesday. Analysts expect consumer prices to rise 1.1%, after increasing 1.0% a month earlier.
At 09:30GMT (4:30AM ET) Wednesday, the ONS will publish the monthly jobs report. The claimant count change is expected to rise by 2,000 in October, with the jobless rate holding steady at 4.9%. Wage growth including bonuses is forecast to rise 2.4%.
On Thursday, the ONS will produce a report on October retail sales at 09:30GMT (4:30AM ET), with analysts expecting an increase of 0.5%, following a flat reading in the preceding month.
The Bank of England held interest rates at a record-low 0.25% earlier this month, as was widely expected, but hinted it could raise rates in the coming months if inflation accelerates too quickly.
1. Federal Reserve Minutes
The latest Federal Reserve minutes will be released on Wednesday 23rd November at 14:00 EST.
The Fed minutes will inevitably be dissected closely for the underlying comments and rhetoric surrounding the potential outlook for monetary policy.
The overall impact should, however, be less marked than in most of the previous meetings given that the FOMC has indicated very clearly that rates will be increased at December’s policy meeting unless there are exceptional circumstances. There are likely to be specific references to the December meeting in the minutes.
The minutes will also be significantly dated given that the Fed meeting took place ahead of the Presidential election. There have also, for example, been very substantial moves in bond markets since the meeting.
Any hints on the likely policy stance for 2017 will be important and, in this context, the degree of confidence in the inflation outlook will be important.
2. UK Autumn Statement
The UK Autumn Statement will be delivered on Wednesday 23rd November at 07:30 EST.
Following the UK referendum result, much of the focus has been on monetary policy with the Bank of England moving to cut interest rates and expand the quantitative easing programme.
The focus in the week ahead will move to fiscal policy with the government’s Autumn Statement.
There will be pressure for an expansion of fiscal policy, especially in areas such as construction, given that overall investment levels are liable to falter given the high level of uncertainty.
The economy has, however, been resilient since the vote, which will lessen pressure for more radical policy measures to support the wider economy. Nevertheless, there is scope for some targeted cuts in taxation.
The medium-term policy outlook will be an important focus with the deficit projections watched very closely given that the budget deficit is already around 4% of GDP.
The government will have to strike a delicate balance as a big fiscal expansion would alienate international investors.
3. ECB Draghi Testimony
ECB President Draghi will testify to the European parliament on Monday November 21st at 11:00 EST.
Draghi will present the bank’s annual report and also testify to the parliament on economic and monetary policy.
ECB policy will be an extremely important focus in the short term ahead of the crucial policy meeting on December 8th. The ECB has signalled that there will be an announcement on the bond-buying programme at this meeting with speculation that there will be an extension to the full government bond buying programme to beyond March 2017, although there is still a high degree of uncertainty.
There are several options for the ECB and markets will be on high alert for any hints from Draghi over the likely course of action.
Draghi has previously used this testimony to drop hints surrounding potential policy actions in an attempt to gather majority support for his preferred position in the governing council.
Any rhetoric on the Euro’s value will also be watched closely in his replies.
4. US Durable Goods Orders
The latest US durable goods report will be released on Wednesday November 23rd at 08:30 EST.
The level of capital spending remains a very important focus for the US economy after generally weak investment levels since the financial crash.
The Federal Reserve remains uneasy surrounding the investment outlook and has made frequent references to disappointing levels of capital spending in policy statements and speeches.
From a near-term perspective, the overall impact is likely to be limited, especially as there is a very strong probability that the Fed will raise interest rates at the December meeting and only an exceptionally weak report could disrupt these plans.
There will, however, also be an important political angle to the data with any further weakness maintaining expectations that the new Administration will increase fiscal spending in an attempt to boost overall investment levels.
There would also be renewed talk that investment is actually being damaged rather than supported by the very low level of interest rates.
5. Eurozone PMI Data
The latest Eurozone flash PMI data will be released on Wednesday November 23rd at 04:00 EST.
Ahead of the Eurozone data, the data for France and Germany will be released at 03:00 EST and 03:30 EST respectively.
The overall short-term market is likely to be relatively limited, but the data will have potentially important implications for ECB policy.
Overall trends in growth will be important for overall sentiment surrounding the economic outlook and there will also be strong interest in the survey data on prices.
In the previous survey, input prices rose for the seventh successive month and at the fastest pace since July 2015. Overall selling prices were, however, unchanged and the trend has remained very weak over the past year.
A continuation of rising costs and evidence that there has been an increase in selling prices would offer reassurance to the ECB that overall inflationary trends are showing signs of improvement and also tend to discourage an extension of the full bond-buying programme.
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1. Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes
The Federal Reserve will release minutes of its November policy meeting on Wednesday at 2:00PM ET (19:00GMT). The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged following its meeting on November 2, in a widely expected decision, but signaled it could hike in December as the economy gathers momentum and inflation picks up.
While Fed Chair Janet Yellen did not explicitly say the central bank would hike rates at its December 13-14 policy meeting, she told a congressional panel last Thursday that a rate increase was likely "relatively soon."
According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, odds for a rate hike at the Fed's December 13-14 meeting are at 95.4%.
2. U.S. October Durable Goods Orders
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release data on October durable goods orders at 8:30AM ET (13:30GMT) Wednesday. The consensus forecast is that the report will show orders for durable goods jumped 1.5% last month, following a decline of 0.3% in September.
Core orders are forecast to inch up 0.2%, after rising 0.1% a month earlier.
Besides the durable goods report, this week's holiday-shortened calendar also features U.S. data on existing home sales, new home sales, initial jobless claims and Michigan consumer sentiment.
U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and Friday will be a half-session day.
3. ECB President Draghi Delivers Comments
ECB President Mario Draghi is due to testify about the European Central Bank's Annual Report before the European Parliament, in Strasbourg on Monday at 16:00GMT (11:00AM ET).
Investors will be looking for indications that the ECB is moving towards boosting monetary stimulus at its December meeting.
While the ECB has not been clear about its bond-buying program plans, most economists expect the bank to announce an extension to its quantitative easing program beyond the originally-planned end date of March 2017.
4. U.K. Third Quarter GDP - Second Estimate
The Office for National Statistics is to produce a second estimate on U.K. third-quarter economic growth at 09:30GMT (4:30AM ET) on Friday.
The report is forecast to confirm the economy grew 0.5% in the three months ended September 30, unchanged from a preliminary reading, indicating that the British economy shrugged off the immediate shock of the June 23 Brexit referendum.
On a year-over-year basis, the economy is forecast to grow by 2.3%, also unchanged from an initial estimate.
Ahead of the GDP report, British finance minister Philip Hammond will offer firm plans and an outlook on the U.K. economy as it prepares for Brexit talks with his Autumn Statement to parliament on Wednesday.
5. Japanese October CPI
Japan's Statistics Bureau will publish October inflation figures at 23:30GMT Thursday (6:30PM ET). Market analysts expect the headline figure to remain negative, falling 0.4% year-on-year, which would be the 11th straight month of declines.
The country has been struggling to hit its 2% consumer price target, keeping pressure on the Bank of Japan to maintain its aggressive stimulus package when it meets next month.
1. US Employment Report
The latest US employment report will be released on Friday December 2nd at 08:30 EST.
The employment report will inevitably have a significant short-term impact with the main initial focus on the figure for non-farm payrolls.
This figure will be particularly important given that the Fed is looking to increase rates at the December meeting. The crucial element here is whether the data disrupts these expectations.
From the Fed’s perspective, a monthly employment gain of around 120,000 is sufficient to keep the unemployment rate stable. A figure between 120,000-150,000 would be disappointing from an immediate perspective and compared with expectations of around 165,000, but would not prevent a December rate hike.
Anything below this level would inevitably trigger a frenzy of speculation that the December hike could be in jeopardy, although the bar to not tightening is very high.
A stronger than expected release above 200,000 would increase speculation that there could be a faster pace of Fed tightening in 2017.
From a longer-term perspective, the average earnings data will also be very important given recent signs of upward pressure on wages. A stronger than expected release would increase speculation that wages and inflation pressures are building and this would also increase speculation that the Fed may need to tighten policy at a faster pace in 2017. Weaker earnings data would keep inflation concerns at bay and encourage Fed doves to preach extreme caution.
The ADP employment report will be released on Wednesday.
2. OPEC Ministerial Meeting
The regular OPEC Ministerial meeting will be held in Vienna on Wednesday November 30th.
The OPEC meeting will be extremely important for underlying sentiment surrounding oil markets as OPEC looks to finalise a deal to curb production.
The original deal to curb production was reached in Algeria in September, but details of individual quotas were not agreed at that point with an interim committee set up to agree quotas by late November.
According to sources, the technical committee has agreed its stance with a potential six-month deal to cut quotas by 4-4.5% except for Libya and Nigeria. There are also reports that Iranian and Iraqi quotas have been left until the ministerial meeting.
This will substantially raise the stakes for the November 30th meeting given that Iran and Iraq have resisted any attempts to curb production.
Outright failure in the meeting would put sustained downward pressure on prices, while a strong agreement to cut output would boost prices.
There is likely to be notably choppy trading and an unconvincing agreement would risk a quick reversal of any immediate gains.
OPEC members are due to meet non-OPEC members on November 28th.
3. China PMI Data
The November China PMI manufacturing report will be released Thursday local time (20:00 EST Wednesday).
The non-manufacturing data is due to be released at the same time and the Caixin manufacturing data is scheduled 45 minutes later.
The PMI data was significantly stronger than expected last month with the manufacturing index at the highest level since August 2014. The data helped to trigger increased confidence in the Chinese outlook and also improved confidence in the global growth outlook, which helped bolster risk conditions.
The latest data will be important for market sentiment as a further improvement in the PMI data would continue to boost confidence in the short-term outlook both for China and the global economy.
There are, however, already significant concerns surrounding the property sector amid fears that measures to restrict speculation will trigger a hard landing.
Any significant retreat in PMI indices would, therefore, spark a fresh round of concern surrounding the Chinese outlook and trigger some reassessment of the global outlook.
4. US ISM Manufacturing
The latest US ISM manufacturing survey will be released on Thursday December 1st at 10:00 EST.
The ISM manufacturing data edged higher last month, continuing the recovery from the dip into contraction territory seen for the August data.
The data always has important implications for the economy and there will be two particularly important aspects in the latest data, although the releases in early 2017 are likely to be even more significant.
Markets will be looking for evidence on whether the election outcome has had any significant impact on confidence.
There is some evidence that relief that the election has been concluded has supported business sentiment. There may also be some confidence of a more pro-business Administration, which would boost short-term confidence.
There will, however, also be an important element of uncertainty, which could delay investment.
Markets will also be looking for evidence surrounding pricing trends and the impact of a strong dollar. Only exceptional data would have an impact on the December Fed meeting, but evidence of damage from a strong dollar and weak pricing power would maintain Fed caution over the medium-term outlook and increase the likelihood of a dovish hike in December.
In contrast, evidence of strong inflationary pressure would increase speculation that the Fed would need to tighten more aggressively in 2017.
5. Eurozone CPI Inflation Data
The latest Eurozone flash CPI inflation data will be released on Wednesday November 30th at 05:00 EST.
The ECB faces a crucial Governing council meeting on December 8th and the inflation forecasts will be extremely important in formulating the bank’s policy decision on bond purchases at the meeting.
A relatively weak reading would maintain ECB expectations that there is no significant inflationary pressure within the economy and also encourage the bank to maintain the existing rate of bond purchases beyond March 2017.
In contrast, a higher than expected monthly rate and evidence of some upward pressure on core prices would increase the potential for a more cautious tone at the December meeting. The ECB could wait for further evidence before taking a decision.
Base effects from weak data last year will tend to put some upward pressure on the headline annual rate.
The German and Spanish provisional inflation data will be released on Tuesday November 29th and the German data in particular will have a significant impact on expectations.