Forecasts For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD

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Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD: Shift from bullish to neutral: Scope for a deeper pull-back to 1.1240.

The sharp drop from the high of 1.1415 yesterday was clearly unexpected and the 1.1300 stop-loss was just breached at the time of writing. The bullish phase that started earlier this week has ended and the outlook for EUR from here is deemed as neutral. That said, the current pullback appears to have scope to extend lower to 1.1240 but at this stage, a sustained move below this level is not expected (next support at 1.1200). The 1.1415 peak is acting as a major resistance now.

GBP/USD: Neutral: In a broad 1.4350/1.4630 range.

GBP continues to trade choppily and we maintain our neutral view from here. Further whippy trading is still expected in the days ahead, likely within a broad 1.4350/1.4630 range.

AUD/USD: Bullish: Target a move to 0.7545.

The sharp and rapid pull-back from the high of 0.7505 does not bode well for our bullish view (especially when the daily closing is near the day’s low). However, as long as 0.7365 is intact, another attempt to move clearly above 0.7500 is still a distinct possibility. That said, AUD has to move higher within this 1 to 2 days as a prolonged consolidation below 0.7505 would lead to a rapid loss in momentum.

NZD/USD: Bullish: Further NZD strength only if above 0.7150.

The current movement is likely the start of a consolidation phase that may last for a few days. As long as 0.7030 is intact, the outlook for this pair is still considered as bullish (targeting a move to 0.7190). That said, further NZD strength is likely only upon a clear break of the 0.7145/50 high seen yesterday.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Target 106.00.

The bearish USD phase that started on Monday is not making much headway. Despite dipping below last week’s 106.35 low, USD rebounded strongly from the 106.24 low. From here, the odds for further weakness have diminished but confirmation of a short-term low is only upon a breach of 107.90.

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Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD: Neutral: Bearish if daily closing below 1.1200.

The anticipated extension lower in EUR was more rapid than expected and the undertone is clearly negative from here. That said, only a daily closing below 1.1200 would indicate that the current neutral outlook has shifted to bearish (for an immediate target of 1.1100). Overall, the downward pressure would continue to increase unless this pair can reclaim 1.1330 within these few days.

GBP/USD: Shift from neutral to bearish: Target 1.4090.

The plunge in GBP took out successive major supports and the outlook has clearly shifted to bearish. While the decline is quickly approaching oversold, further weakness towards 1.4090 appears likely. Stop-loss on shorts should be at 1.4400 even though 1.4330 is already a strong short-term resistance.

AUD/USD: Shift from bullish to neutral: In a 0.7260/0.7460 range.

The bullish phase that started middle of last week was short-lived and AUD dropped below the key 0.7365 support. The outlook for this pair has shifted to neutral and the current movement is likely the start of a consolidation phase that may last for a week or so. Expected range; 0.7260/0.7460.

NZD/USD: Bullish: Further NZD strength only if above 0.7150.

While 0.7030 is still intact, upward momentum continues to deteriorate and the odds for further NZD strength have diminished considerably. From here, further up-move is likely only if there is a clear break above the recent high of 0.7150. A breach of 0.7030 would indicate the start of a neutral consolidation phase.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Target 106.00.

The decline from last Friday’s peak is gaining momentum and our immediate target at 106.00 appears to be within reach. A break below this level would shift the focus towards the 105.50/55 low seen in early May.