This nice text reflexes quiet exact my oppinion.
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Tetlock assembled a group of more than 2,000 non-expert volunteers under the banner of the Good Judgement Project
* Working in teams and individually the volunteers were asked to forecast the likelihood of various events of the sort intelligence analysts try to predict every day ("Will Saudi Arabia agree to OPEC production cuts by the end of 2014" was one example)
Tetlock found that the most accurate forecasts were made by 2% of his volunteers ... it was the way these people made decisions and learned, rather than deep subject knowledge, which gave them the edge over specialist intelligence analysts
In their thought process the superforecasters were almost exclusively what the philosopher Isaiah Berlin described in a famous 1953 essay as "foxes"
Another difference is that the best forecasters continuously seek ways to make better predictions
- * For individuals, the training focused on
thinking in terms of probabilities and removing thinking biases - for
instance, focussing on the limitations of one's own knowledge and being
open to alternative views
- * For groups the training aimed
to strike a balance between conflict and harmony. Too much conflict
destroys the cooperation that is essential to teamwork. Too much
consensus leads to groupthink
There is plenty around on Tetlock, the above is from here: How to be a better forecaster