Current short term Forecast - page 2
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Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Bearish: To take partial profit at 1.1055.
There is not much to add; we still believe the current EUR weakness has scope to extend lower to mid-March low of 1.1055. This is a rather strong support and those who are short from last Monday should look to cover half of their position at this level.
GBP/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Anticipating a break above 1.4770.
The ease of which last week’s 1.4663 top is taken out coupled with the strong daily closing has shifted the outlook to bullish again. From here, we are targeting a break above the month’s high of 1.4770. The next resistance above this level is closer to 1.4890. Stop-loss is at 1.4550 even though 1.4625 is already a strong support.
AUD/USD: Neutral: In a lower range of 0.7150/0.7350. [No change in view]
While the undertone for AUD is weak, lackluster momentum indicators continue to suggest that the current weakness is unlikely to be sustained. Overall, we prefer to hold a neutral view for now and would reassess our view if there is clear move beyond the current expected 0.7150/0.7350 range.
NZD/USD: Neutral: Increasing downward pressure.
While the outlook for NZD is still deemed as neutral for now, downward pressure is increasing and a clear break below would indicate the start of a sustained down-move to 0.6670. Overall, this pair is expected to remain under pressure in the next few days unless it can reclaim 0.6775/80.
USD/JPY Neutral: Bullish only if above 110.60.
There is no change to the current neutral outlook for USD. Last week 110.55/60 peak is likely a short-term top but momentum indicators do not suggest that a sustained period of USD weakness is imminent. Support is at 109.00 followed by 108.40.
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Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Bearish: Diminished odds for further weakness.
The strong rebound yesterday has diminished the odds for further EUR weakness. However, confirmation of a shortterm low is only upon a break back above 1.1230. This appears to be a likely scenario unless EUR can move and stay below the recent low of 1.1125/30 within these 1 to 2 days.
GBP/USD: Bullish: Anticipating a break above 1.4770.
We shifted to a bullish stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. The down-move from the high of 1.4738 is viewed as a short-term correction and as long as the 1.4550 stop-loss is intact, we continue to anticipate a break above 1.4770.
AUD/USD: Neutral: In a lower range of 0.7150/0.7350.
AUD traded in tight ranges over the last several days and at this stage, we continue to hold a neutral view. On a shorterterm note, the current movement appears to be the early stages of a basing process but a sustained rebound is likely only upon a clear break above 0.7285.
NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6690/0.6830 range.
The recent pick-up in downward momentum fizzled out quickly as NZD rebounded strongly from a low of 0.6692 (just above the strong 0.6690 support). The outlook from here is rather mixed and choppy trading between 0.6690 and 0.6830 is expected from here.
USD/JPY: Neutral: In a 108.80/110.60 range.
There is no change to the current neutral view on USD. This pair is expected to trade choppily within a broad 108.80/110.60 range for the next one week or so. Looking further ahead, the current consolidation is likely a prelude for a stronger USD but 110.60 has to break before a sustained up-move can be expected.
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Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Target 1.1400, 1.1450.
While the sharp break higher in EUR has shifted the outlook to bullish from neutral, it appears that we may have seen a chunk of the rally. That said, as long as 1.1250 is not taken out in the days ahead, further advance to 1.1400, 1.1450 is still a distinct possibility
GBP/USD: Neutral: Scope to extend lower to 1.4330/35.
While GBP moved above the 1.4550 resistance last Friday, it was unable to hold on to its gains. The sharp drop earlier this morning continues to suggest that there is scope for a move lower to test the strong 1.4330/35 support (last month’s low). A clear break below this level would indicate the start of a sustained down-move (next support at 1.4270). 1.4505/10 is acting as a very strong resistance now and only a break of this level would suggest that the immediate downward pressure has eased.
AUD/USD: Neutral: Bullish only if close above 0.7400.
The expected rebound in AUD exceeded the 0.7365 resistance last Friday to touch a high of 0.7368. While the undertone is still positive, shorter-term indicators are overbought and in order for the current neutral outlook to shift to bullish, AUD has to close above the key 0.7400 resistance (next resistance at 0.7480). Support is at 0.7290 but only a break below 0.7235 would indicate that the upward pressure has eased.
NZD/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Target 0.7000.
The key 0.6840 indicated in recent updates was easily taken out last Friday. The subsequent sharp rise in NZD appears to be over-extended but further up-move to 0.7000 would not be surprising. Only a move back below 0.6830 would indicate that current bullish expectation is wrong
USD/JPY: Shift from neutral to bearish: Target 106.00.
The expected extension to 108.20 turned into a rout as USD plummeted to a low of 106.48 last Friday. While severely over-extended, the current USD weakness could extend lower to 106.00 even though oversold shorter-term indicators suggest a slower pace of decline. Our bearish view is wrong on 108.10 break even though 107.50 is already a strong short-term resistance.
Setups: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD
EUR/USD: We are bullish. Friday’s up-day endorses the prior base candle and signals higher in range towards initial targets near 1.1420. A move above would point higher towards the 1.1505 area.
USD/JPY: Thursday’s sell-off through the May lows has encouraged us to resume our overall bearish view towards support near 102.10 and our targets towards 100.70.
GBP/USD: We have turned bullish. Thursday’s “hammer” candle was endorsed by Friday’s high close and signals room above initial targets near 1.4685. A move above there would point towards the 1.4770 range highs.
AUD/USD: We are bullish against support in the 0.7285 area and look for a break above initial targets near 0.7505 to signal higher in range towards 0.7570 and then the 0.7790/0.7720 area before sellers emerge.
NZD/USD: We are bullish towards initial targets in the 0.7150 area and look for a break above there to open greater targets near 0.7235. From there we would look for signs of a top and move lower toward 0.6890 and then 0.6675.
USD/CAD: Thursday’s topping candle was endorsed by Friday’s bearish engulfing candle and encouraged our bearish view. Our initial targets are towards 1.2655 and then lower toward the 1.2460 lows.
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Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Neutral: Shift to bullish if daily closing above 1.1365.
EUR moved above the strong 1.1365 resistance but failed to hold on to its gains. As highlighted yesterday, USD has to close above this level to indicate the start of a bullish phase. The odds for such a move still appear to be quite high as long as 1.1250 is intact.
GBP/USD: Neutral: Bullish if closing is above 1.4770.
While GBP closed at 1.4675, just above the major 1.4665 resistance, we are not convinced that the current rally could be sustained. Looking back, GBP took about six weeks to move from 1.4770 (high in early May) to a low of 1.4013 last Thursday but in three short days, it recovered almost all of its loss. Volatility is expected to remain elevated and it may more prudent to focus on the shorter-term move (see left panel).
AUD/USD: Neutral: Bullish only if closing above 0.7505.
Upward momentum continues to improve but we prefer to see a daily closing above 0.7505 before shifting to a bullish stance. It is unclear at this stage if AUD can maintain its impetus but the current positive undertone would continue to improve as long as 0.7400 is intact.
NZD/USD: Neutral: Bullish only if above 0.7145/50. [No change in view]
While shorter-term upward momentum has improved considerably, NZD has to break clearly above the recent 0.7145/50 high before further sustained up-move can be expected. In the meanwhile, this pair is expected to stay underpinned with strong support at 0.6990.
USD/JPY: Bearish: To take partial profit at 103.50/55.
While USD declined quickly after touching a high of 104.84 yesterday, downward momentum continues to show signs of weakening. Those who are short from earlier this month should look to take partial-profit at 103.50/55.
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Neutral: In a broad 1.1130/1.1385 range.
The sharp drop in EUR yesterday that took out the 1.1250 support suggests that the prospect for the current neutral outlook to shift to bullish has all but vanished. The outlook from here is very mixed and we continue to hold a neutral stance and expect this pair to trade choppily within a broad 1.1130/1.1385 range.
GBP/USD: Neutral: Bullish if closing is above 1.4770.
GBP attempted to move clearly above the key 1.4770 resistance (high of 1.4788) but the up-move was quickly reversed. As mentioned in recent updates, only a daily closing above 1.4770 would indicate that the current neutral outlook has shifted to bullish. In the meanwhile, volatility is expected to remain elevated but the undertone for this pair is viewed as ‘positive’ as long as the 1.4430 support is intact.
AUD/USD: Neutral: Bullish only if closing above 0.7505.
AUD took a peek above the key level of 0.7505 (high of 0.7513) before reversing rapidly. As highlighted yesterday, AUD has to close above 0.7505 in order to shift the current neutral outlook to bullish. While another attempt higher is not ruled out, the odds for such a move have diminished.
NZD/USD: Neutral: Bullish only if daily closing above 0.7145/50.
While NZD moved above the strong 0.7145/50 resistance, the up-move was not sustained and we are not convinced that NZD can continue to move higher in the coming days. Only a daily closing above 0.7145/50 would indicate the start of a move to 0.7290. Overall, this pair is expected to stay underpinned with strong support at 0.7050.
USD/JPY: Bearish: To take partial profit at 103.50/55.
The bearish USD phase that started more than 2 weeks ago appears to be close to ending. Downward momentum has waned considerably over the last few days and this coupled with oversold indicators suggests diminished odds for further USD weakness. That said, as long as the stop-loss at 105.10 is intact, another attempt towards the recent 103.50/55 low cannot be ruled out but a sustained break below this level would be surprising. Those who are holding short positions should look to book at least partial profit on any approach to 103.50/55. The next support below 103.50/55 is at 103.05/10 which is another major support.
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Neutral: In a broad 1.1130/1.1385 range.
Despite the smart rebound from the 1.1235/40 support, we view the up-move as part of a broader consolidation. However, the current neutral outlook for EUR would shift to bullish if there is a daily closing above 1.1385 (with an immediate target of 1.1445). At this stage, it is unclear whether EUR can move above this level but on a shorterterm note, the undertone appears to be positive with strong support at 1.1235/40.
GBP/USD: 1.4795 Bullish; immediate target at 1.5020.
As highlighted in recent updates, a daily closing above the major 1.4770 resistance would indicate that the outlook for GBP has shifted to bullish. Upward momentum is improving at a rapid pace and the immediate target from here is for a move to 1.5020. In view of the elevated volatility, the stop-loss is placed at 1.4560 even though 1.4640 is already a strong shorter-term support. The next resistance above 1.5020 is closer to 1.5110 followed by 1.5335.
AUD/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Immediate target at 0.7600.
The clear break 0.7505 has shifted the outlook for AUD to bullish. The immediate target is at 0.7600 and stop-loss at 0.7440.
NZD/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Immediate target at 0.7280.
As highlighted in recent updates, a daily closing above 0.7145/50 would shift the neutral outlook to bullish. The immediate target is at 0.7280 with a stop-loss at 0.7100.
USD/JPY: Bearish: To take partial profit at 103.50/55.
As highlighted in the Chart of the Day update yesterday, downward momentum has waned considerably and this coupled with oversold indicators suggests diminished odds for further USD weakness. Shorts should look to take profit on any dip to 103.50/55. Stop-loss is unchanged at 105.10.
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Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Bearish: Room to extend lower but 1.0820 is a major support.
EUR broke several key supports last Friday and dropped to a low of 1.0905/10. The short-term rebound from the low appears to be corrective in nature and a break below 1.0905/10 could lead to further drop to the very strong support level of 1.0820/25 (low last seen in March). Resistance is at 1.1170 but only a move 1.1300 would indicate that an interim low is in place (key levels are far apart after the volatile move last Friday)
GBP/USD: Bearish: A move to 1.3000 would not be surprising.
While further GBP weakness would not be surprising, the record breaking drop last Friday is severely over-extended. That said, the 1.3225/30 low appears to be a tenuous support and a move to 1.3000 in the coming days would not be surprising. Resistance is at 1.3770 but only a move back above last Friday’s NY high of 1.3980 would indicate that a temporary low is in place
AUD/USD: Neutral: Expect choppy trading between 0.7305/0.7650.
AUD registered a range of 345 pips last Friday, the largest single day range since November 2011. This has clearly resulted in a mixed outlook and we prefer to hold a neutral view and expect further volatile trading that should be contained by 0.7305/0.7650.
NZD/USD: Neutral: In a broad 0.6975/0.7305 range.
The sudden expansion in range last Friday has resulted in a mixed outlook. Near term, we expect NZD to trade between the 0.6975/0.7305 range established last Friday. The price action over the few days should provide a better picture of where this pair is heading next.
USD/JPY: Neutral: In a broad 99.08/106.81 range.
USD registered a range of 99.08/106.81 or roughly 770 pips. This is the single largest daily range since October 1998. Near-term outlook is unclear after the extreme movement and we do not have a firm view except that trading is likely to be confined within the 99.08/106.81 range (which is not much of a help). Hopefully, the price action over the next few days could offer a better clarity of the outlook for USD.
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