Swiss franc news - page 21
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USD/CHF: Making a Move Toward Resistance
USD/CHF is higher in today’s trading, currently at the 1.0295 level, up 0.35% over Monday’s North American close.
As is the case in USD/JPY, USD/CHF appears to be in the process of forming a bullish flag-like formation following the move to the December 15 high. This formation suggests an eventual upside breakout is likely.
Initial resistance is at last week’s 1.03203 high followed by the December peak at 1.03437. This high represents a test of the November 2015 corrective top at 1.0330, a key level of resistance, as a sustained break above would shift the longer-term trend in USD/CHF in favor of the bulls. On such a move, the target becomes the June 2010 high at 1.17320, as can be seen on the monthly chart.
On the downside, support is at the late November rally high at 1.02051. Holding this level on a pullback would result in no technical damage to the pair. And, given the resilience exhibited by USD/CHF in the presence of an extreme overbought condition, a drop below this level of support does not appear likely to unfold.
It is expected to be a quiet week in the Forex market, with no major economic releases throughout the balance of the week. The medium impact US Consumer Confidence report is due out today at 10:00am ET. Pending Home Sales is due Wednesday, Jobless Claims on Thursday and Chicago PMI on Friday.
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USD/CHF: Fails Test of Key Resistance, Moving Lower in Today’s Trading
USD/CHF failed to maintain an upside bias in yesterday’s trading and is currently down today, holding near the 1.0240 level, off 0.42% from Wednesday’s North American close.
Overall, however, the pair remains in a consolidation mode and may still be in the process of tracing out a bullish flag-like formation following the move to the December 15 high. This formation was broken to the upside on Wednesday, but with upside momentum failing, the consolidation phase remains intact.
On the downside, support is at the late November rally high at 1.02051. Holding this level on a pullback would result in no technical damage to the pair. And, given the overall resilience exhibited by USD/CHF in the presence of an extreme overbought condition, a sustained drop below this level of support does not appear likely to unfold.
On the upside, key resistance for the pair is at the December peak at 1.03437, which has now been reinforced by yesterday’s price action. This high represents a test of the November 2015 corrective top at 1.0330, an important level of resistance, as a sustained break above would shift the longer-term trend in USD/CHF in favor of the bulls. On such a move, the target becomes the June 2010 high at 1.17320, as can be seen on the monthly chart.
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USD/CHF: Breaks Support in Volatile Trading
As was the case in EUR/USD, USD/CHF experienced high volatility around the time of the US close and Tokyo open, as the pair declined to 1.00485 for a low, the worst level since December 8.
Although USD/CHF has bounced back from the low, support at the late November rally high at 1.02051 has been broken, as the pair is currently trading at 1.1083 down 0.43% from Thursday’s North American close.
Maintaining this support break would leave the bias for the pair heading into the new year to the downside, with support now at today’s 1.00485 low, which represents a test of the low established on December 8 at 1.00213.
On the upside resistance is at the December 22 low at 1.02184. A move back above this level is required to suggest USD/CHF has the potential for a return to the December high.
The economic calendar has been light throughout this week’s trading. Yesterday, the initial jobless claims report for the week ending December 24 showed jobless claims decreasing 10,000 to 265,000. There were no special factors driving the reading, which remained below 300,000 for the 95th consecutive week and kept the four-week moving average of 263,000 near a 43-year low.
In today’s trading, Chicago PMI will be released at 9:45am ET. Consensus estimates call for a reading of 55.2 in December, following a prior reading of 57.6.
USD/CHF: Move to the Downside Proves Unsustainable
As was the case in EUR/USD, USD/CHF experienced high volatility near the end of last week’s trading, as the pair declined sharply, to the worst level since December 8. However, USD/CHF has since bounced back from the low and is now trading at 1.0234, up 0.56% over the 2016 year-end close.
The rebound has resulted in a break back above resistance at the December 22 low at 1.02184. The move back above this level suggests USD/CHF has the potential for a return to the December high. This high represents a test of the November 2015 corrective top at 1.0330, an important level of resistance, as a sustained break above would shift the longer-term trend in USD/CHF in favor of the bulls. On such a move, the target becomes the June 2010 high at 1.17320, as can be seen on the monthly chart.
Following today’s holiday in the U.S. and Switzerland, one of the main focuses in this week’s trading will be the U.S. employment report, due to be released on Friday. Consensus estimate is for an increase of 175K, following a reading of 178K in November. This report will be important in regard to the pace of interest rate increases in 2017.
Also due out this week in the U.S. is construction spending and the ISM Index on Tuesday, FOMC minutes on Wednesday, the ADP employment change as well as the ISM Services Index Thursday. The trade balance and factory orders are also due to be reported on Friday, along with the employment report.
In Switzerland, CPI data is due out on Thursday. Prior to this, PMI data will be released on Wednesday.
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USD/CHF: Approaching Key Resistance
USD/CHF experienced high volatility near the end of last week’s trading, as the pair declined sharply, to the worst level since December 8. However, USD/CHF pair has since bounced back from the low, gaining ground on Monday and in today’s trading as well. The pair is currently at 1.0299, up 0.60%.
The target is now the December high at 1.03437. This high represents a test of the November 2015 corrective top at 1.0330, an important level of resistance, as a sustained break above would shift the longer-term trend in USD/CHF in favor of the bulls. On such a move, the target becomes the June 2010 high at 1.17320, as can be seen on the monthly chart.
The main focus in this week’s trading will be the U.S. employment report, due to be released on Friday. Consensus estimate is for an increase of 175K, following a reading of 178K in November. This report will be important in regard to the pace of interest rate increases in 2017.
Also due out this week in the U.S. is construction spending and the ISM Index today, both at 10:00 am ET. FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday, while the ADP employment change as well as the ISM Services Index are due Thursday. The trade balance and factory orders are also due to be reported on Friday, along with the employment report.
In Switzerland, PMI data will be released on Wednesday, followed by CPI data on Thursday.
Swiss CPI Decline 0.1% in December, 0.4% Decline For 2016
Swiss consumer prices declined 0.1% in December, which was in line with market expectations and followed the 0.2% decline in prices seen in November.
Consumer prices were unchanged over the year, which was also in line with expectations and compared with a 0.3% decline in the year to November.
For 2016 as a whole, there was a decline in prices of 0.4% following a 1.1% decline the previous month. There was a decline in domestic prices of 0.1%, while import prices declined 1.4%.
For December, prices for domestic goods were unchanged, while import prices declined 0.3%. There was an increase in monthly prices for fuel oil, public transport and air transport. In contrast, there was a decline in food prices with clothing and package travel abroad also registering monthly declines.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) remains committed to price stability and there was a downgrading of the 2017 inflation forecast to 0.1% at 0.2% at the December monetary policy review. The SNB will, therefore, remain very sensitive to inflation trends with fourth-quarter price increases lower than expected.
There has, however, been an increase in energy prices over the past few weeks and the Swiss currency is slightly weaker against the dollar. Base effects should also push the annual inflation rate into positive territory next month.
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Swiss forex reserves end-Dec CHF 645.33bln vs 647.761bln prev
Swiss forex reserves as of end-Dec
prev revised down from 647.994blnSwitzerland December unemployment rate 3.5% as exp
Swiss December unemployment rate 10 Jan
When a central bank halts intervention, the case of the SNB EUR/CHF capitulation
From the intro:
USD/CHF Rebounds Following Test of Key Support
Strength in the dollar is benefiting USD/CHF in today’s session, as the pair is currently trading at 1.0120, up 0.39% from Friday’s close. Today’s bounce is taking place following last Thursday’s and Friday’s tests of support defined by the low established December 30th at 1.0059.
This low represents a test of the lows from early December and is a key level for USD/CHF, as a sustained move below would confirm a potential topping formation in the pair. The downside objective derived from this topping formation is at the 0.9783 level.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, is maintaining a firm tone in today’s trading, currently holding near 101.62, a gain of 0.42%. Today’s strength comes in the wake of the release of several economic reports on Friday.
Retail Sales were up 0.6% month-over-month, but were flat excluding autos and gas. Producer prices increased 0.3%, as expected, while core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2%. Overall, higher energy prices are driving up producer prices and continue to suggest inflation in the U.S. will pick up in 2017. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 98.1 versus consensus for a reading at 98.5. The Index was little changed from the 98.2 reading in December.
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