Technical and Market Analysis by Vistabrokers - page 36
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Vista Brokers: Aussie Rose after Strong Statistics from China
During early trading in Forex the Australian dollar was losing positions after the release of the Westpac consumer sentiment index, which has fallen in July to 92.2, its lowest level since December last year. However, as Vista Brokers say, later Aussie has changed its direction and began to grow after the publication of statistics in China. Immediately after the strong data release, AUD / USD has added 0.12% to 0.7466.
All China's statistics published at 02:00 GMT were better than expected, which, of course, has added optimism to the Australian dollar and other "commodity" currencies. So, the real GDP (from the beginning of the year) has increased in Q2 by 7.0% against the expected 6.9%. Industrial production in June has increased by 6.8%, while the forecast predicted weaker value of 6.0%. The volume of retail sales during the first summer month has also risen more than expected ( by 11.4% instead of 11.2%).
From the news published during the Asian session, it is also worth noting that the Bank of Japan has voted 8 to 1 for leaving its monetary policy unchanged. It is worth noting that the Japanese central bank has revised its forecasts for GDP and inflation for the next three fiscal years, with a decrease.
USD / CAD. C
lose to Final F
rontier
A
n agreement on the Iranian nuclear program,
as a result of which
a
serious
participant of
the
hydrocarbons
market
(Iran)
may return its power
, casts doubt on the possibility of bears in USD / CAD to seize the initiative near six-year highs. Recall
that
Canada is one of the largest
oil
exporters, and the Canadian currency is often in phase with oil
quotes
. However,
for this pair everything
will be decided later today after the Bank of Canada will publish its decision on
the
interest rate. If
the rate will be cut
(it is the likely
result
, though not the bas
ic
one
), the
pair
can "fly off into space."
It is recommended to wait for
the BOC
decision on the rate, being
ready
to
enter on the
1.2334
level breakthrough
.
Volatility: 67%
Trend:
b
ullish
Fundamental background: strong
GBP / USD. Wind
Is Turning
The British currency
has
show
n
its stuff
yesterday.
A s
pectacular growth during yesterday's trading
was
provided
by
the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who
has
proclaimed the approach of
the
rate hike.
As a
result
it was
a very strong growth in the pair,
that was
reinforced
also with
published yesterday weak data on
the
US retail sales. Thus, the market situation has changed dramatically, which
requires a
quick response to this context.
It is recommended to buy on corrections
within
the current short-term trend
borders
with the target in the area of 1.59, where
is
the next important resistance level.
Volatility: 36%
Trend:
b
ullish
Fundamental background:
moderate
Vista Brokers: Gold Treads Water, Copper Grows
On Wednesday, gold is traded without a direction prior to the Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen speech, while copper is increasing after positive statistics from China. Vista Brokers analysts note that the speech of the Fed's head ahead of Congress, that will be held later today, can significantly affect many financial instruments.
Based on Yellen's comments, market participants will draw conclusions about the timing of interest rate hike. Last Friday, the Fed's chief reiterated that the regulator will raise rates later this year, if on the labor market and the US economy as a whole is positive. Despite clear signs of the US economy recovery, the situation is still ambiguous, and a vivid example of this was yesterday's retail sales data, which has showed a decline of 0.3%.
So today, in early hours of the European trading session on the Comex, gold futures for August delivery have fallen by 0.02% to $ 1,153.70 per troy ounce. A day earlier, the metal has fallen to the lowest level since March at $ 1,144.40 before closing at $ 1,153.50 (-0.16%). Silver for September delivery today was traded on Comex at $ 15.28 per ounce (-0.23%). On Tuesday, the metal has fallen by 0.92% to close at $ 15.31.
Meanwhile, copper today has risen in price after the publication of strong data in China. The real GDP (from the beginning of the year) has increased in Q2 by 7.0% against the expected 6.9%. Industrial production in June has increased by 6.8%, while the forecast predicted weaker value of 6.0%. The volume of retail sales during the first summer month has also risen more than expected ( by 11.4% instead of 11.2%).
Positive statistics reduced concerns over a slowdown in China's economy and supported copper, as China is the world's largest importer of the metal (40%). Copper futures for September delivery have risen today on the Comex by 0.82% to $ 2.556 per pound.
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:GOLD
The order to sale from 1157.97 is still relevant, despite the fact that, amid recent events (remember, important agreements were reached on Greece and also Iran's nuclear program), investors have completely lost interest in the yellow metal, moving their attention to risky assets, and the stock market in particular. Thus, quotes are drifting in a narrow trading range, also we have a single signal to sell from the AO indicator (saucer). Stop trade, corresponding to the value of the red Alligator's line, is very close to the opening price.
Volatility: 26%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:USD/JPY
We continue to hold the long position from 122.87, with no additional signals to add volume. The red Alligator's line has moved to 122.98, formally giving us the reason to expect a final positive result.
Volatility: 62%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:EUR/USD
Despite the sharp pullback in prices to the area of Alligator's teeth after yesterday's weak retail sales data (1.0989) in the USA,the position to sale from 1.0989 is still in the market. Among additional signals for sale we have "saucer" on the AO, "zero crossing" on AC, as well as "red zone" signals.
Volatility: 63%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD
We continue to hold the position to buy from 1.5589, to which we can already add extra volume after receiving "green zone" signals. Today, during the US trading session it is expected a number of important statistical publications in the United States, so it is advisable to monitor the market.
Volatility: 38%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Pulse 07/16
Today, the European Central Bank will announce a decision on the key interest rate, followed by a traditional Mario Draghi press conference, from which market participants can receive interesting information, as well as signals for further ECB actions. Vista Brokers analysts note that during the US session fresh data on the US labor market be published.
1:00 ** MI Inflation Expectations - July (Australia)
1:30 ** NAB Quarterly Business Confidence - Q2 (Australia)
Moderate impact on the market (AUD). Australian MI inflation expectations index is often higher than the official data, but it is a good indicator of the assessment of current households attitudes in relation to inflation. High values can be a signal to tighten policy, supporting the currency.
5:00 ** Bank of Japan Monthly Report - July (Japan)
Moderate impact on the market (JPY). The BOJ monthly report consists a fairly concise description of main indicators and the global economy that is taken into account by the monetary committee when deciding on the rate. The report helps to understand further policy of the Bank of Japan. Words about readiness to act in order to support the economy may put pressure on the yen.
9:00 ** Final Consumer Price Index - June (euro zone)
9:00 ** Core CPI - June (euro zone)
11:45 *** ECB Interest Rate Decision - July (euro zone)
11:45 ** Deposit Facility Rate - July (euro zone)
11:45 ** Marginal lending facility - July (euro zone)
12:30 *** ECB Press Conference - July (euro zone)
Strong impact on the market (EUR). The market does not wait for changes in interest rates by the ECB, but in the course of the press conference can be interesting comments that could be interpreted as signals to changes in the strategy of the European Central Bank in the future. Therefore, investors will be attentive to the words of Draghi.
12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - July (USA)
12:30 ** Continuing Claims - July (USA)
14:00 *** Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Testifies - July (USA)
14:00 *** Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - July (USA)
14:00 ** NAHB Housing Market Index - July (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). Another portion of statistics from the US market may tense markets. Special attention is necessary to listen to the Janet Yellen's speech. She speaks ahead of the Congress the second consecutive day. As for other data, forecasts are generally optimistic, in addition to the expected decline in the index of the Philadelphia Fed. While there is always the possibility that the statistics will present surprises.
18:00 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - July (UK)
Strong impact on the market (GPB). Previous performance of the BOE head has caused the rally of the pound, as the signal was given that the interest rate can be increased. Fresh Carney comments can strengthen confidence in the fact that the Bank of England is next in line after the Fed.
Vista Brokers: Yellen Strengthened Confidence in Fed Rate Hike
The main event on Wednesday was the speech of the Fed's head Janet Yellen. Vista Brokersanalysts say that Yellen's comments has strengthened the belief that the US central bank will raise its key interest rate until the end of the year.
Yellen said that the interest rate will be raised "before year end", although noted some negative aspects. In particular, risks for the US economy, created with a situation in Greece and the slowdown in China's economy. After the Fed's head speech the dollar grew up broadly, gold has fallen to a minimum of 2015. The EUR / USD has declined by 0.50% to 1.0953 (the weekly low), while the dollar index has risen by 0.37% to 97.17 (maximum since 7 July).
Additional support for the optimism of market participants in relation to the dollar gave a statistic that was published yesterday in the United States. Thus, the index of producer prices in June has risen by 0.4% vs. 0.2%, while the Empire Manufacturing industrial index in July has increased to 3.86 against the expected 3.4. Recall that the previous month the index has declined to -1.98. Today, the market is also waiting for a busy day with another Janet Yellen's speech and statistics on the US labor market.
Vista Brokers: Greece Weakened Precarious Position of Gold
During the Asian trading session on Thursday, price of gold futures continued to reduce. Vista Brokers analysts say that the already precarious position of gold was weakened with the fact that the Greek parliament has passed first needed bills required under terms of a three-year bailout program. On the Comex, gold futures for August delivery have fallen by 0.08% to $ 1,146.50 per troy ounce. Silver for September delivery has fallen in price by 0.27% to $ 15,008 per ounce. Copper continues to rise after yesterday's strong statistics from China - September futures have increased by 0.07% to $ 2.516 per pound.
Many doubted that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras can persuade parliament to pass unpopular reforms, against which the Greek people had voted. However, necessary measures have been taken with 229 yes, 64 no and 6 present, and now probably Athens will receive the first tranche from creditors. Greece needs the foreign aid desperately to resume the work of banks and to implement overdue payments. It is noteworthy that the "native" left-wing forces did not support their leader that may indicate that the split in parliament is worsening. In his defense, Tsipras said that other than to accept the creditors' plan, he had only two choices - a chaotic default and the voluntary exit from the euro zone.
So, Greece is likely to receive assistance from the EU, the ECB and the IMF, at least the first part of it, which undermines the position of gold as a safe-haven asset to which market participants are turning in unstable times. In addition, the pressure on the metal has the US economic recovery and the high probability that the Fed will raise the interest rate before the end of the year.
So, after a speech of the Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen yesterday gold has collapsed to a minimum of 2015. The head of the US central bank has confirmed that the regulator intends to raise rates later this year, provided that the statistics continue to show improvement in the economic situation.
USD / CAD:
Let it Roll!
As
Vista Brokers analytics had
expected, the
pair
flew into space, or to be more precise,
to
the new six-year highs, after the Bank of Canada cut
the rate
yesterday. This is the second reduction of this year,
which
reflect
s
concerns about the state of the national export-oriented economy in connection with the fall in oil prices. Thus, quotes
have left
graphic border
s
of the rising channel, which can now be adjusted
with account of momentum
acceleration.
It is recommended to hold long positions, carried out after 1.2334
breakthrough
, add
ing on
corrective
declines.
Volatility: 69%
Trend:
b
ullish
Fundamental background:
moderate
EUR / USD. What
W
ill Draghi
Say
?
Yesterday's speech
of Janet
Yellen
was rather
aggressive, that has led to a significant strengthening of the
US dollar
. The Fed
's
head
has
marked the inevitability of this year
rate hike
, remained
rather pleased
with the state of the national economy, and
mentioned the almost
full employment. Today's meeting of the ECB
may
"finish"
the
euro if Mario Draghi, in turn, denotes the probability of the quantitative easing program expanding or the probability of its deadline extension.
It is recommended to wait for the market reaction to Draghi's speech before considering opening positions. The path of least resistance for the euro
goes
down, and in the case of quotes consolidation below
the nearest support at
1.0915
we may consider
short positions open
ing
with the
target
in the area of 1.0820, where
is
the next
important
level.
Volatility: 56%
Trend:
b
earish
Fundamental background: strong
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:GOLD
The risk appetite rise in global financial markets has pushed gold prices to the lowest levels for the past few months. It gave a serious reason to expect a positive result on the existing short position from 1159.97. Among additional signals we have "saucer" on the AO, "zero-crossing" on the AC, as well as "red zone" signals. It is worth noting that there was also a signal "5 red bars in a row," which means on the one hand, the ability to move a stop order to the level of the last red bar high and on the other — we must stop to add volume in accordance with "red zone" signals.
Volatility: 26%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY
The order to buy from 122.87 remains relevant because the pair continues to grow slowly but surely. The value of the Alligator's teeth, and the value of our conditional stop order as well,were moved to the level of 123.26. Among additional signals we see "saucer" on the AO, as well as "zero crossing" and "2 green bars above zero" on the AC. Also, we have the same directed fractal as another signal to add.
Volatility: 72%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD
With the resumption of the downward trend the profit on the current short position has increased over the past day significantly and is already about a figure. Today we expect the press conference of the ECB head Mario Draghi after the meeting of the European CB on the monetary policy, so Vista Brokers analysts recommend to monitor all received System signals.
Volatility: 54%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: strong
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD
The long position from 1.5589 will be closed soon, as the current bar has crossed the red Alligator's line. If it closes at current levels, the result of the transaction will need to be fixed quickly.
Volatility: 42%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Pulse 07/17
Friday will be saturated with statistics, especially during the American trading session, when some interesting data will be published in Canada and the United States.
12:30 *** Consumer Price Index - June (Canada)
12:30 *** Core CPI Bank of Canada - June (Canada)
Strong influence on the market (CAD). It is expected a slight increase in the consumer price index in the first summer month, although given the recent rate cut by the Bank of Canada, even if the growth is stronger than expected, it will hardly support the Canadian dollar.
12:30 *** Building Permits - June (USA)
12:30 ** Housing Starts - June (USA)
12:30 *** Consumer Price Index - June (USA)
12:30 *** Core CPI - June (USA)
12:30 ** Consumer Price Index - June (USA)
12:30 ** Core CPI - June (USA)
Strong influence on the market (USD). This week was very busy in terms of statistics, particularly for the USA, where the large portion of important data was published. Among Friday's statistics Vista Brokers analysts recommend to pay most attention to the consumer price index. The strong data may support market confidence that the Fed's rate hike is coming.
14:00 *** UoM Consumer Sentiment Index (Prelim) - July (USA)
14:00 ** Stanley Fischer (Fed Vice Chairman) Speaks - July (USA)
Strong influence on the market (USD). The UoM consumer sentiment index is predicted to rise, and the positive data may provide an additional support for the dollar. Fisher comments may also be interesting for the market, in particular, the vice chairman of the US central bank can confirm Fed's intention to raise the rate.