Technical and Market Analysis by Vistabrokers - page 12
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
GOLD.Final Warning
Bears have made the final warning to everybody who continues to persevere and hold long positions even after previously indicated support line was overcomed by the price. The last line of customers defense (correctional Fibo level 61.8% from the growth in January – 1220) is currently being tested by the price. The decline is orderly and remains within the downtrend channel. In recent days, world stock indices receive a significant support that is reflected in the demand for gold, which, given its status of a safe haven, walks in opposition with these indices.
It is recommended to refrain from taking action in the market, waiting for appropriate signals to make an informed decision. So, we can expect continued decline in case of moving the price below current levels, where the mentioned correction Fibonacci level locates, because in this case we will have no arguments for up scenario. On the other hand, only a break of the current downward channel upper limit will give a reason to expect continuation of growth, where the first target is the January high of 1,308 dollars per troy ounce.
GBP / USD.Crouch Start
When the asset's market find a kind of price equilibrium, the situation may drastically change overnight, while sometimes left wondering what exactly it will be connected with. It is not always necessary to search for logic in it, but there are of course some through scenarios. Actual apparent consensus is one of those occasions when it's time to prepare for important changes, and today's publication of the Bank of England quarterly inflation report is a reason for scales to swing in one direction or another. Moreover, the subsequent press conference led by the Committee on Monetary Policy chairman Mark Carney may set the record straight on the question of possible changes in interest rates. Note that this question is key for the market, determining the direction of the asset.
It is recommended to wait for the aforesaid events (10.30 GMT) and be ready to work on the next breakthrough levels of support (1.5195) and resistance (local extremum 1.5300 and correctional level 50% from the decline in December 2014 - January 2015 - 1.5350). In case of breaking the resistance line, the first target of growth will be 1.5465 (a correction 61.8% from said pulse).
www.vistabrokers.com
Vista Brokers: GreeceRemainsSuspended
On Wednesday, EUR/USD dropped in anticipation of the Eurogroup meeting and the discussion of the "Greek problem". In general, the pair remained in the range of 1.1270 - 1.1350, being under pressure from the lack of agreement on the restructuring of Greece's debt. Due to the uncertainty US stock markets were falling. Dow Jones and S & P 500 declined late in the evening, and only Nasdaq rose due to Apple shares. Apple has become the first company worth more than $700 billion.
Vista Brokers analysts say that on the eve of the Eurogroup press conferenc, the market waited. Traders tried to analyze the expression of the euro zone's "first persons" in order to understand what lies beyond Greece. Eurogroup President Jeroen Deysselblum earlier on Wednesday assured that no decision will be accepted at the meeting. The EU Commissioner, Pierre Moscovici insisted that the place of Greece is in the euro zone, and everybody needs to find a compromise. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble gave no specific comments, just saying that Athens is only to decide whether it will remain in the program or not.
As the market has already laid the absence of a decision by Greece in prices, the EUR / USD remained calm after it became known that the Eurogroup had not marked anything concrete. According Deysselblum, during the meeting were held constructive discussions with the Greek authorities, and some progress has been achieved. However, it is too little to say about the general solution.
Analysts remind that negotiations will be continued on the next scheduled meeting of the Eurogroup on February 16. Perhaps, then, some sort of statement will be made.
www.vistabrokers.com
Market Pulse 12.02
Today, the economic calendar is saturated with important information. Early in the morning data on the labor market in Australia has already been published. The EU economic summit and the European Council meeting may clarify some points for Greece. Bank of England's inflation report will likely impact on the pound, and weekly data on unemploymentclaims in the United States - on the dollar.
10:00 **Industrial Production - December (euro zone)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Growth or exceeding the forecast is often favorable for the currency, but in conditions of increased volatility due to worries about Greece, the market can ignore this data.
10:30 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - February
10:30 *** BOE Inflation Report - February
10:30 ** BOE Inflation Letter - February
Strong impact on the market (GPB). The BOE inflation report and inflation letter will attract a market's attention, because the inflation rate is one of the landmarks of the central bank's monetary policy. Investors await from the Bank of England some hints that interest rates may be raised.
12:00 ** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - February (euro zone)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Given that the ECB has recently launched an ambitious program of quantitative easing, nobody expects Draghi hints at new measures of economy stimulation. Thus the head of the European regulator may comment on inflation and economic growth and this, of course, will affect the euro.
13:30 *** Retail Sales - January (USA)
13:30 *** Core Retail Sales - January (USA)
13:30 ** Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas - January (USA)
13:30 *** Unemployment Claims - February (USA)
13:30 ** Continuing Claims - January (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). Recently, information on the US labor market is extremely optimistic and some new positive data can provide significant support to the dollar. With regard to the volume of retail sales in January, analysts expect lower indices.
www.vistabrokers.com
Vista Brokers:YenRises AmidUncertainty in Greece
During the Asian session on Thursday the yen rose against its major counterparts, supported by demand for risk-free assets. Vista Brokers analysts note that the uncertainty in Greece remains, as at yesterday's Eurogroup meeting was not made any decisions. After six-hour talks euro zone finance ministers pledged to continue the constructive dialogue with representatives of the IMF and the ECB later, so the "Greek problem" still continues to put pressure on markets.
Recall that the current loan agreement with Greece ends on February 28, and the new government flatly refuses to renew it, demanding renegotiation of agreement on austerity measures and reforms. The next round of negotiations will be held on February 16.
Amid this the euro fell to 136.06 yen from 136.53 on Wednesday and to 1.1309 dollars from 1.1336. The US dollar fell from 120.47 to 120.26 yen. The Australian dollar fell to 90.05 yen from 92.97. An additional pressure on the Aussie had the labor market data, published in the night from Wednesday to Thursday. Thus, the unemployment rate in Australia rose significantly stronger than expected to 6.4% vs. 6.2% (13-year highs). The number of employees was also greatly reduced - by 12.2 thousand instead of the expected 4.7 thousand. It has reinforced investors' expectations of further RBA monetary policy easing.
Analysts say that the growth of the Japanese yen against the US dollar was limited by the fact that today the market is expected important US statistics, which can once again confirm the recovery of the US economy. These are retail sales and unemployment claims.
Although demand for the yen was caused rather by safe asset searching than positive on Japan, we note that on the eve was published statistics in core machinery orders. In December, these orders increased by 8.3%, well above the 2.3% expected by analysts. Despite the fact that this index is very volatile, it is considered as an indicator of companies' capital investment in Japan, so its growth is favorable.
www.vistabrokers.com
USD / JPY. Bank of JapanShowsCorrectYenRate to Market
Yesterday's downward movement in half figure looked very picturesque and dramatic, causing mild panic in bulls ranks. It was the result of some Bank of Japan representatives statements regarding the undesirability of further national currency devaluation and things like that. Apparently, the controller carefully monitors price changes, making adjustments to the yen value, using something like verbal interventions at the right time. Thus, now we do not expect more monetary stimulus incentives that cuts the ground from under the feet of those who are still counting that Japan will continue at any cost devalue the currency in favor of exporters. This means that mentioned earlier scenario after a graphic border of more than two months "triangle" breakthrough is up in the air again.
The primary target we had set earlier (120.69), was not been formally worked out, but the price was close to it. In any case, we have to fix a result of long positions, since quotes are back into boundaries of abovesaid figure, and thus we go into "sleep mode". We need to give the market an opportunity to choose a direction in new conditions.
GBP / USD. Rubiconwas Passed
So, we see a long-awaited breakthrough of a long-term downtrend line, and the price has overcome the next important resistance level (1.5350), which increases the likelihood of further growth of the pair. Yesterday, the publication of the Bank of England quarterly report has done its job and became a foundation for a powerful movement to the north, which was confirmed with trend indicators.
We continue to hold yesterday's long positions opened for 1.5300 breakout with abovesaid target at 1.5465, where is the correctional Fibo level 61.8% of the descending wave in December 2014 - January 2015. Also note that in this area goes Fibonacci extension level 261.8% of the pulse on February 10-11. Using Fibo extensions often gives an opportunity to successfully build targets from the initial pulse, which is taken as 100%, and ttargets are set at 161.8%, 261.8% and 423.6% of the basic pulse. Also, this level is attractive because here is the target of the graphical turning figure "inverted head and shoulders" implementation.
www.vistabrokers.com
Market Pulse 13.02
On Friday, European countries will publish preliminary data on changes in GDP. In the afternoon, the market's attention will draw data on manufacturingsales in Canada and the University of Michigan consumersentiment index in the United States.
7:00 *** Prelim GDP - Q4 (Germany)
9:00 ** Prelim GDP - Q4 (Italy)
10:00 ** Prelim GDP - Q4 (Greece)
10:00 *** Prelim GDP - Q4 (euro zone)
Strong impact on the market (EUR). Preliminary GDP data could put pressure on the single currency, as in many countries, as well as in the euro area, growth expected to be very weak. In Italy, analysts expect lower annual rate.
10:00 **TradeBalance - December (euro zone)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The trade balance is the difference between the value of exported and imported goods. Growth or exceeded forecast is positive for the currency.
13:30 *** Manufacturing Sales - December (Canada)
Strong impact on the market (CAD). Volumes of industrial supplies in Canada are falling, and it's a bad sign for the national currency. In December, analysts expect a new index drop, this time by 0.9%.
13:30 **ImportPrices - January (USA)
Moderate impact on the market (USD). Changes in prices of imported goods for the month. May be an early warning sign of inflationary trends change, or their confirmation.
15:00 *** Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - February (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). Recently, the American statistics often gives pleasant surprises. Possible, the University of Michigan index will also show in February more significant growth than the market expects. In this case, the dollar may receive additional support.
www.vistabrokers.com
Vista Brokers: EuroRespites amid Weak USData
On Thursday, the US dollar was down against the yen and the euro after the release of disappointing US statistics. Vista Brokers analysts note that the data which were much weaker than forecasts indicate that the US economic recovery is not balanced yet. And this, in turn, casts doubt on this year tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
So, in January retail sales in the US fell by 0.8% vs. expected 0.4%. Excluding auto sales index fell by 0.9% vs. 0.4%, while sales excluding cars and fuel rose by 0.2% vs. 0.4%.
In addition, during a week the number of unemployment claims in the United States rose by 25,000 to 304,000, higher than the forecast 290 000. For the dollar it was a serious blow. Immediately after the release of statistics the US currency fell from 119.70 to 119.44 yen. Euro against the dollar rose to 1.1358 dollars from 1.1331 earlier and continued the upward movement.
Analysts say that for the euro it is only a temporary break in the long-term downtrend. The fate of Greece is still unresolved and this will put pressure on the single currency as long as this question remains critical. The next round of talks on Greece will be on Monday.
It is worth noting another important Thursday's occasion. The Sweden's central bank has unexpectedly introduced negative interest rates on deposits for commercial banks (-0.1%) and announced that it would spend 10 billion Swedish crowns (1 billion euros) to purchase government bonds with maturities of up to 5 years. After that, the Swedish krona fell against the dollar to a minimum since April 2009.
www.vistabrokers.com
Vista Brokers: StockMarketsRise amidUkraineCeasefire
On Thursday the US index S & P 500 has reached its highest level this year, and the Nasdaq index has reached its fifteen-year maximum. European indices also showed significant growth. On Friday, the baton continued to Asian markets.
Vista Brokers analysts note several factors that contributed to the growth in the stock markets: a ceasefire in Ukraine, reduction in interest rates in Sweden and hope for the "Greek problem" to be solved on Monday. In the first place, it is, of course, a ceasefire, as the situation in the Donbass remains a serious geopolitical risk.
The last few days, these factors were the main sources of concern, but yesterday's 17-hour negotiations of the "Norman Quartet" in Minsk ended with the signing of the agreement about ceasefire and exchange of hostages. Greece is still one of the main source of disturbance in the financial markets, but many investors believe that on Monday, at a regular Eurogroup meeting, international creditors will reach an agreement with Athens. Hopes for a successful resolution of conflicts, both military and diplomatic, brought positive sentiment on the stock markets.
So, at the end of Thursday Dow Jones industrial average rose by 0.62%, the S & P 500 by 0.96%, the index of high-tech NASDAQ by 1.18%. European stocks also showed good growth. Stoxx Europe 600 rose by 0.75%, DAX added 1,56%, CAC - 1,00%, FTSE - 0,15%, Athex Composite - 6,73%. Today, Asian markets rose after the European ones. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan rose today by 1.6%.
Positive came to markets not only from Ukraine and Greece, but quite unexpectedly from Sweden, where the central bank has lowered on Thursday its repo rate to a negative value, and launched a program of quantitative easing. Amid this the Swedish krona fell against the dollar by 2%. Analysts state that Sweden joined the countries that have adopted additional measures to stimulate the economy after the ECB had started its QE.
www.vistabrokers.com
Vista Brokers: BrentReturned to $60
Last week the Brent crude oil gained 4%, returning to the level of December 2014. Vista Brokers analysts note that the April Brent futures are now trading at $ 60.23 a barrel. March futures on Thursday rose by more than 4% to $ 57.05. WTI crude oil is also rising in price and at the time of writing is trading at $ 51.98 a barrel.
Analysts note that the week was extremely volatile for the oil market, which has been under pressure from the military conflict in Ukraine and economic problems in Greece the same as the other financial markets. These two factors put pressure on markets earlier this week, but after the talks in Minsk, which ended with the ceasefire agreement, the disturbance died down.
Another important factor which has supported oil was the fact that the largest US manufacturer of shale oil Apache Corp announced a significant reduction in the cost of development of new deposits.
www.vistabrokers.com
Vista Brokers:MarketsBelieve in Greek
On Monday morning, the euro rose on expectations that today's Eurogroup meeting will bring a solution of a "Greek problem". Time is running out, because February 28 is the deadline for the current bailout program from creditors: ECB, EU and IMF. Decision must be made, otherwise the default is inevitable.
Vista Brokers analysts say that on the eve Athens has expressed confidence that today the compromise will be reached, while emphasizing that they disagree with austerity measures. Whether creditors will accept a position of Tsipras and whether they will find a way to restructure Greece's debts so that it suites both parties? We will know it tonight when the Eurogroup meeting comes to an end, and euro zone finance ministers will take part in a press conference.
On the eve of the meeting the single currency, which has been drifting between $ 1.1262-1.1534 during past few weeks, increased by 0.2% to $ 1.1411. Whatever decision is taken today by the Eurogroup, the euro will be affected to a large extent. Although if you remember the previous extraordinary session, investors have taken a lead from its results before the press conference.
Positive expectations about Greece have an impact on stock markets. Today in Japan, the market is at the level of 8-year high. The Nikkei added 0.5% and found itself at the highest level since 2007. Recall that US stock indexes have completed the past week with a significant increase: S & P 500 reached a historic high, and Nasdaq - a 15-year peak.
The market pay so much attention to the "Greek question" decision for a good reason. The Greek exit from the euro zone which can happen, if the problem is not resolved, would set a precedent for other countries which also have claims to the "troika" of creditors. Most likely Spain may pick up the baton of Athens. In this country there are also many people dissatisfied with the policy of austerity and a political party like the Greek "SYRIZA" has a chance to come to power.
www.vistabrokers.com