USDCAD news - page 37
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USD/CAD Extends Lower, Nears Triple Confluence Support Area
USD/CAD declined for a sixth consecutive session and is seen approaching July lows, and a confluence of support. The decline in USD/CAD on Monday was triggered by a drop in the US Dollar and a continuation higher in oil prices.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been very volatile as of late. The index dropped sharply lower following a miss in US retail sales on Friday, however, a reversal saw DXY erasing nearly 90% of the losses occurred as a result of the weak retail sales report. The index recovered slightly higher at the open this week, but topped out in Asian trading, and headed lower into the European session. The decline throughout the day has weighed heavy across the majors, including USD/CAD.
WTI crude oil prices (USOIL) moved higher following the weekly open, but sellers stepped in during early European trading, driving the instrument to support at $44.40. A bounce from the level gained momentum into North American trading, driving USOIL to new highs on the day. USOIL was last seen at $45.59 for a gain of 2.01% on the day.
USD/CAD is now seen approaching a triple confluence of resistance. A rising channel from June 8 lows, as well as a rising trendline connecting early May lows with late June lows, and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement are found near 1.2883. The Fibonacci retracement is measured from June 8 lows to highs seen at the end of July. The level carries importance in the pair, and while a break lower could signal that a broader decline is taking place, a bounce could trigger a continuation of the existing uptrend.
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USD/CAD At Critical Technical Break Point
USD/CAD declined for a seventh consecutive session on Tuesday, and is attempting to make a technical break lower. A rising channel seen from early June lows was breached earlier today, putting emphasis on the daily close.
The currency pair broke below the rising channel at the European open today, as oil prices started to rise. The decline in the pair continued into the North American open, where a sharp reversal in the Greenback triggered a recovery in the pair. After posting a low at 1.2798 the pair rallied back to the breakout point, but was unable to scale back above the broken channel line. The daily close is now important for the pair, a close above the channel would print a large tail and encourage bulls, while a close below would provide a bearish signal.
Oil prices extended higher today for a fourth consecutive session. WTI crude oil was seen consolidating in the Asian session, and a break higher was seen at the European open. US CPI data released shortly after the North American open limited gains in oil prices briefly, but an eventual move higher has put further pressure on USD/CAD in late day trading.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) was under pressure for most of the early day. The index posted a high in early Asian trading and a steady decline has taken DXY below strong support seen at 95.11. The index bounced at the lower bound of a rising channel formation seen from May lows, but remains below support. DXY was last seen at 94.79 for a decline of 0.84% on the day, and remains the weakest currency among the majors on Tuesday.
Monthly manufacturing sales figures out of Canada printed at 0.8%, in line with expectations and against a decline of 1.0% in the prior month. Wednesday’s EIA crude oil inventories report is the next release that stands to have a high impact on USD/CAD. The Fed will release minutes from their July 26 meeting later in the day, the release stands to have a high impact on the US Dollar.
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USD/CAD Selloff Continues As Oil Prices Push towards Yearly Highs
USD/CAD continued lower today, posting a ninth consecutive day of declines. The pair broke through a rising channel formation on Tuesday and has been under pressure as oil prices approach 2016 highs.
A major support confluence was broken earlier this week in USD/CAD. A combination of a rising channel from June lows, a rising trendline from May lows, as well as a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from June lows, carried a confluence just below the 1.2900 handle. The pair broke out of the channel as the US Dollar was sold off aggressively on Tuesday, and while hawkish comments from Fed Dudley served to cause some reprieve for the Greenback, the comments were insufficient for a recovery in USD/CAD above the support area. A continued selloff in the pair now shows the exchange rate at 1.2775, posting a decline of 0.52% on the day.
Oil prices have moved higher this week, on track to post six consecutive daily gains. WTI crude oil (USOIL) was seen scaling above critical resistance at $45.97 on Tuesday, and nears resistance at $48.82, reflecting the monthly open for July. USOIL was last seen at $47.90 for a gain of 2.11% on the day. Brent crude oil has already surpassed the July open seen at $49.97 in UKOIL, and scaled above the psychological $50.00 price point today. The instrument was last seen at $50.53 for a gain of 1.42% on the day.
Stronger data out of the United States failed to trigger a rally in USD/CAD. Weekly unemployment claims were reported at 262,000, beating analyst expectations set at 269,000. The Philly Fed manufacturing index was reported at 2.0 against an expected reading of 1.4. Out of Canada, foreign securities purchases dropped to 9.02bn, against an expected 17.23bn, as reported by Statistics Canada. Next out of Canada is inflation and sales data in early North American trading on Friday. Monthly core CPI is expected unchanged from the prior month, while monthly core retail sales are expected to rise 0.4%.
Among the cross rates, CAD/CHF was seen recovering for a second day, after posting an outside day candle on Tuesday. The bearish candle had served to engulf gains from the prior three sessions. Strong resistance in the pair is seen at 0.7519. AUD/CAD turned lower following the rally in oil prices, despite early day gains following strong labor figures out of Australia. The pair was last seen at 0.9811, with strong support coming in at 0.9753, referencing previous lows and a rising trendline from late May lows.
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Canadian July CPI +1.3% y/y vs +1.4% y/y expected
Canadian July inflation numbers from Statistics Canada
Month over month
USD/CAD forecast for the week of August 22, 2016
The USD/CAD pair fell during the course of the week, but bounced enough to form a bit of a hammer. If we can break above the 1.30 level above, that could be a significant turnaround. However, there is a previous uptrend line that we would now need to break over as well, but if we do that of course is a very bullish sign. A break down below the bottom of the hammer would be a very negative sign and should send this market looking for the 1.25 handle.
USD/CAD forecast for the week of August 22, 2016
The USD/CAD pair fell during the course of the week, but bounced enough to form a bit of a hammer. If we can break above the 1.30 level above, that could be a significant turnaround. However, there is a previous uptrend line that we would now need to break over as well, but if we do that of course is a very bullish sign. A break down below the bottom of the hammer would be a very negative sign and should send this market looking for the 1.25 handle.
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook August 22-26
The combination of a sharp decline in the Greenback and a Momentum-driven rally in oil prices weighed heavy on USD/CAD in the past week. The pair posted nine consecutive days with a loss until Friday’s turn snapped the losing streak.
The pair started the week out after a technical break below the 1.3000 handle and a continuation lower was seen early in the week. USD/CAD made another significant technical break on Tuesday. The pair broke through a confluence of support just below the 1.2900 handle, the area carried support from a rising channel, a rising trendline, and a Fibonacci retracement that was widely watched by market participants. A bottom for the week was made late in trading on Thursday, as a rising trendline from June 8 lows drew buyers into the pair, while weaker data out of Canada fueled the recovery.
Friday’s data pointed to a sharp drop in retail sales for Canada. The figure indicated a drop of 0.8%, well below the expected rise of 0.3% for the month. Inflation data was mixed with some figures coming in line with expectations, while the monthly figure declined 0.2% against expectations for an unchanged month. Throughout the month of August, Canadian data has been coming in mostly below expectations with a notable drop in labor and housing data.
Oil prices continued higher on prospects of a production freeze by OPEC. WTI crude oil prices have posted seven consecutive daily gains, and have now completely erased large losses realized in July. On the monthly chart, oil prices printed a bearish evening star pattern following the close in July, while a close near current levels at the end of August would serve to negate the bearish pattern. WTI crude oil (USOIL) is now seen testing resistance from the monthly open in June, while a divergence is seen with Brent crude oil. The rally in Brent oil prices (UKOIL) has exceeded the June monthly close at $49.79, as the instrument has regained the $50.00 price point. The instrument posted a small loss on Friday as sellers stepped in near late June highs, while USOIL posted a small gain, continuing its winning streak.
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Canada wholesale trade sales for June come in at +0.7% vs +0.1% estimate
Higher than expected. Prior month revised toe 1.9% from 1.8%
Canada wholesale trade sales for June come in at +0.7% vs +0.1% estimate
Higher than expected. Prior month revised toe 1.9% from 1.8%
The USDCAD moved a down a little (6 pips) and then back higher.
Canada wholesale trade sales for June come in at +0.7% vs +0.1% estimate
Higher than expected. Prior month revised toe 1.9% from 1.8%
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