USDCAD news - page 24
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Canadian Sept CPI +1.0% vs +1.1% y/y expected Highlights of the Canadian inflation report for September 2015
USD/CAD forecast for the week of November 2, 2015 The USD/CAD pair initially tried to break higher during the course of the week but turned back around to form a shooting star. Because of this, we feel that the market is probably going to pull back from here in order to test the 1.28 handle. Because of this, we think short-term selling opportunities may present themselves, but at this point in time longer-term traders can get involved until we get below the 1.28 handle as it represents such a strong support level on the longer-term charts currently.
USD/CAD forecast for the week of November 9, 2015 The USD/CAD pair broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the top of the shooting star from the previous week. Ultimately, we believe that this market continues to go higher due to the breaking out to the upside, but we recognize of the 1.35 level of course is resistive. Any pullback at this point in time should be buying opportunities oh, and we will treat them as such. The 1.28 level below should continue to be the bottom of the support, so it’s not until we break down below there that we would consider selling.
Canadian Oct housing starts 198.1K vs 231.6K prior Housing starts from the CMHC The prior reading was revised slightly lower to 231.3K from 230.7K.
It's a sharp slowdown in Canadian home construction and something to keep an eye on but overall it's still a strong report. Pundits have been predicting a Canadian housing crash forever but we're still waiting.
USD/CAD: Loonie Trims Losses, Remains Under Pressure The USD/CAD gave up some gains in the afternoon as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen stayed mute on the timing of the next rate hike in her latest speech.
The so-called loonie dropped 0.29% to C$1.3305 against the greenback, after falling to a one-month low of C$1.3324 earlier in the session.
The loonie’s morning plunge was triggered by falling oil prices, which reached their lowest levels since the summer on Thursday, as commercial inventories of crude oil rose by 4.22 million barrels in the week of November 6, beating the 1.28 million barrel build up the markets had been expecting.
Futures for WTI crude oil declined 2.75% to $41.75 per barrel and Brent contracts tumbled 2.99% to trade at $44.44 per barrel.
"Domestic risk is limited to housing price data, leaving the focus for CAD squarely centered on broader developments—specifically the paths for oil and relative central bank policy. We note that WTI has made a clear break of the rising trend line off the lows from August and October, leaving it (and CAD) vulnerable to decline into and through the EIA inventory data," currency strategist at Scotiabank, Eric Theoret, said in a note.
"With regards to relative policy, OIS are remarkably pricing a modest (8%) chance of a BoC hike over the next 12 months, despite a generally neutral-dovish tone most recently delivered in October statement and MPR," Theoret added.
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USD/CAD: Loonie Off Intraday Lows, Still Near 1.5-Month Lows The USD/CAD pair continued its upward trend on Friday, with sluggish retail sales failing to leave a significant mark on the currency market.
The so-called loonie tumbled 0.16% to C$1.3312 against the greenback, marking the lowest level since September 29.
Crude oil prices were once again in the red on Friday as the global supply glut was still a major concern for traders. The Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that crude inventories in the US rose by 4.22 million barrels in the week to November 6, compared to the 1.28 million barrel build up expected by analysts.
Futures for WTI fell 3.04% to $40.48 per barrel and Brent contracts declined 0.91% to $43.66 per barrel.
At the beginning of the session, traders digested weak American retail sales, which edged up just 0.1% in October, falling short of the 0.3% increase projected by the markets. Meanwhile, the control core gauge rose 0.2%, while analysts’ consensus estimated to see a 0.4% advance, the US Census Bureau said.
However, economists are stating that the overall picture is not as bleak. "Retail sales … appear weaker when inflation is subdued and exclude a large share of the basket of services consumed by households. They can therefore be a head fake for measuring real consumer spending activity. This appears to be the case again in October. The weakness in the headline measure masks the fact that auto sales are near record highs and saving from lower gasoline prices are boosting services spending," senior economist at TD Economics, James Marple, said in a note.
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