USDCAD news - page 21
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
USD/CAD forecast for the week of September 21, 2015
The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the course the week but found enough support near the 1.30 level to turn things back around and form a nice-looking hammer. Will we find interesting about this market is that the Federal Reserve has stayed on the sidelines as far as interest-rate hikes are concerned, and with that it makes sense that the US dollar would fall. However, we turned around completely and formed a massive hammer at what should have been support. With that, we believe that this market is going to continue the uptrend, and with that we are bullish.
At this point in time, we do not have a scenario in which we sell this pair until we get well below the 1.28 handle, something that does not seem very likely. With that, we are looking for impulsive candles to the upside as well as a break above the top of the hammer in order to take advantage of what seems to be a well-established trend. At that point in time, we would assume that the market would test the 1.3350 level, and then possibly the 1.35 level after that.
On top of everything else, we think that the support runs from the 1.30 level all the way to the 1.28 level as it appears to be more of a zone than a support level. In fact, when we reached towards the highs at the 1.30 level, we had seen resistance all the way from the 1.28 level. We should now see that entire process completely reverse. The fact that we broke above that area was of course a very bullish sign, as the area had offered so much in the way of resistance that breaking out was indeed a major sign of strength. Keep in mind that the 1.30 level offered resistance several times during the financial crisis, so if we could not break above there during that chaos, the fact that we finally did really tells us something about the strength of this move higher, and the potential longevity. We are bullish.
source
Canadian July wholesale trade sales +0.0% vs +0.8% expected
Some stale, low-tier Canadian data
Strong sales in machinery, equipment and supplies were offset by declines in food & beverages, building materials and farm products.
The Canadian dollar is the only currency that's up against the US dollar so far today. It's getting a boost from the 2.5% rally in crude and this report is unlikely to make a difference.
USD/CAD: Loonie Flat After Wholesale Report
The Canadian dollar edged down on Monday after a flat wholesale trade report, while oil prices offered support to the commodity-based currency.
The so-called loonie was down 0.15% trading at C$1.3247 against the greenback, after hitting the intraday high of C$1.3182.
Traders absorbed the wholesale trade report, which failed to add a significant boost to the highly anticipated July GDP number. Sales were flat at 0%, remaining at C$55.4 billion during the seventh month of the year, after an advance of 1.3% in June, Statistics Canada said.
Monthly gains were driven largely by the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector, but were offset by declines in building materials as well as farm products.
read more
Canada July retail sales +0.5% vs +0.7% m/m expected
Highlights of the Canadian July retail sales report:
There is a wide variance in the Bloomberg and Reuters 'consensus' surveys for this data point. Bloomberg shows +0.7% on headline and +0.5% ex-autos; Reuters shows +0.5% and +0.4%, respectively.
USD/CAD hits another 11-year high, what's next
USD/CAD is up 86 pips to 1.3406 as the loonie wilts. The pair is higher for the sixth consecutive day.
There is virtually zero traditional technical resistance on the chart as it breaks out after a month of consolidation. The technical signals were the reversals on the day before the Fed and immediately after the FOMC. After a quick two-cent fall, USD/CAD shot higher and finished the day up.
Since then it's been a grind higher that accelerated yesterday when oil prices reversed. The slump in oil prices extended in early US trading today and that's pushed the pair further. In addition, yesterday's soft Canadian retail sales report added another reason to buy USD/CAD.
At the moment, I don't like buying her and I suggest longs take profits. It's been a good run and there's always the chance of a blow off but in this case I don't see it. You tend to get a quick squeeze when the market is offside but very few people have been trying to sell USD/CAD.
Instead, look for consolidation down to 1.3300 and consider buying there. I expect 1.39-1.40 within 6 months. As always, oil is the critical factor.
source
USD/CAD: Loonie Suffers Modest Losses Amid Greenback Strength
The USD/CAD pair advanced on upbeat US GDP data, while the gains were offset by higher oil prices, which slightly boosted the loonie.
The so-called loonie edged down 0.18% to C$1.3329 against the greenback, after hitting the intraday low of C$1.3352 earlier in the session.
"The US dollar has been the best performer today unsurprisingly given Yellen's comments last night and today's better than expected Q2 GDP revisions, hitting its highest levels this month against a basket of currencies," chief market analyst at CMC Markets, Michael Hewson, said in a note.
Traders paid close attention to the US Q2 third estimates released on Friday. The data revealed that the US economy grew 3.9% in the second quarter in annualized terms and outpaced the 3.7% expansion the markets were expecting, marking the fastest expansion in three quarters, fresh data from the Department of Commerce showed on Friday. GDP had risen just 0.6% at the beginning of the year.
Also, the US dollar was boosted by the less-than-dovish speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday, when she said that a rate hike in 2015 is still possible.
"The USD is trading broadly higher against its major currency counterparts into the end of the week as equity markets and EM FX stabilize following Fed Chair Yellen's comment last night that she, and many of her colleagues on the committee, feel that rates are likely to rise this year," currency strategist at Scotiabank, Eric Theoret, said in a research note.
read more
USD/CAD forecast for the week of September 28, 2015
The USD/CAD pair broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the 1.3350 level significantly. We did pullback though, so we think it won’t necessarily be the easiest trade to take, but quite frankly we like going long of the USD/CAD pair for both a short and longer-term perspective. After all, you can see on the charts that we have marked the 1.30 level and the 1.28 level. This is essentially a support “zone” in our opinion, and therefore we think that there will be plenty of buyers in that general vicinity. In other words, we think that it’s only a matter of time before the buyers come back into this marketplace going forward.
You have to keep in mind that the area was massively supportive in the past, as the financial crisis sent this market much higher in the past, slamming into the 1.30 level several times. However, the market simply could not get above there, and then we fell drastically from there over the course of the next couple of years. This is a perfect example of “market memory”, and now that we have broken above that significant resistance, it should now act as support. That is what we have seen recently, and as a result it’s very likely that it continues to be very supportive. As long as we can stay above the 1.28 level, we believe that there is no way whatsoever to sell this market going forward.
On a break above the top of the candle for the week, it’s very likely that we will then reach towards the 1.35 handle, and perhaps even higher than that. We think this would be a multi-year uptrend waiting to happen, and therefore we are very bullish of this pair. If we did break down below the 1.28 level, we would be very cautious about trading this market for a wild. Ultimately, the oil markets are not helping the Canadian dollar either, so ultimately we still feel that the US dollar continues to go much higher.
source
USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 28-Oct. 2
USD/CAD showed some strength last week, as the pair gained over 100 points, closing at 1.3334. This week’s highlight in an otherwise quiet week is the GDP release. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
The greenback posted sharp gains as, Yellen surprised with a relatively hawkish speech, and the week ended on a positive note as Final GDP for Q2 posted a strong gain. In Canada, a weak Core Retail Sales report weighed on the struggling loonie.
* All times are GMT.
source
USD/CAD: Loonie Falls After US Consumer Confidence, Hawkish Dudley Comments
The USD/CAD pair received support from New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley's hawkish comments as well as American consumer confidence data. Meanwhile, lower oil prices continued to weigh on the commodity-based Canadian dollar.
The so-called loonie fell 0.19% to C$1.3363 against the greenback, after hitting the intraday low of 1.3376 earlier in the session.
"The dollar was mostly higher on Monday after consumer confidence rose in September and Federal Reserve board member William Dudley hinted at a US rate hike as early as October," CMC Markets analyst Jasper Lawler said in a note.
A measure of consumption closely watched by the Federal Reserve showed firm results, as the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) excluding food & energy rose 0.1% in August, meeting market expectations. Meanwhile, personal spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP, was up 0.4%, which is more than the 0.3% increase the markets had been projecting.
read more
USD/CAD: Pair At 11-Yrs Highs, Targets C$1.35
Traders bought the greenback on Tuesday and the pair was seen hovering around the C$1.34 handle, which opens space for a possible test of the psychological C$1.35 barrier later in the week.
The drop after the FOMC, which took the pair to C$1.30, was aggressively bought and the US dollar soared since then as the loonie remains under pressure due to commodity-linked currencies turmoil.
"We remain long USD/CAD. USD/CAD’s uptrend may have stalled in the last month but by the same token, and perhaps tellingly, CAD has failed to capitalise on what has been a notable bounce in energy prices (WTI +19% from its late Aug lows), a stabilisation in the local data flow and Poloz' more upbeat take on the Canadian outlook," analysts at Westpac shared their view on the USD/CAD pair.
Wednesday sees monthly Canadian GDP data for July, which is expected to drop from 0.5% to 0.2%, while the yearly change should tick higher to 0.7% from 0.6% previously.
read more