Market View; World Stock Indexes & Trading Journal - page 32
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US markets closed with gains of more than 1% but the volume was much lower than in recent weeks. The increase was led by sectors that have been most penalized in previous sessions such as oil and other more cyclical sectors. The day was also marked by economic data. Retail sales grew 0.20% in August, less than 0.30% estimated. However, this weakness is merely apparent, since the smaller increase than expected was mainly due to the price drop of fuel, an effect that is favorable to consumers that may materialize in the coming months. In addition, when excluding the more volatile items, retail sales rose 0.40%. While retail sales relative to July with these exclusions were revised upwards from 0.30% to 0.60%. These data, although positive, should not influence the decision of the Fed tomorrow, with regard to interest rates. Industrial production on July declined 0.40%, against a fall of just 0.20% expected. The publication of inflation, measured by the consumer price index, should not have too much weight on the Fed decision. Due to the decline in fuel prices and the appreciation of the dollar against the currencies of emerging economies in recent months is expected that the inflation fell in August compared with July. Leaving aside the prices of fuels and cars (usually volatile goods), inflation in annual terms is expected to be 1.90%. If these assets are considered in the calculation, inflation remains in 0.20%, below the 2% desired by the Fed.
Boosting US markets was the appreciation of oil (+ 5.70%) and possibly some expectation that the Fed will keep rates unchanged today. The commodities also rose in general, with an highlight to the appreciation of oil. This oil boost is explained by last week announce regarding the decrease of 2.1 million barrels. A large part of this decline (1.9 million barrels) was registered in Cushing (Oklahoma) which is a storage point for most of the oil generated in the US. The rise in oil boosted not only its sector as well as industrial, which has registered a high correlation with the evolution of crude oil. Another possible reason for the rise in the past two days has to do with a statistical curiosity. The New York Fed published an interesting statistic that indicates that since 1994 the American indices recorded valuations (in 80% of cases) in the two days preceding the meeting of the Fed. The meeting of the Fed is the main event of the day, and the decision will be reported at 19h00 and succeeded by a press conference where Janet Yellen will refer their motivations. Today’s session should be so divided in two phases. The first should be marked by the expectation of the Fed decision, with reduced volume as well as low volatility. The second part of the session shall be characterized by the reaction of investors to the outcome of the meeting. Most likely we shall be able to watch to a first reaction today after the decision, but the real impact will occur tomorrow, with the opening of the emerging markets.
In the pre-opening, European markets traded lower, albeit with very small volumes, a day after it was known the decision of the US Federal Reserve. In Asia, the market response was not uniform, having initially been observed a moderately positive response, but later stood the renewed fears about the health of the global economy, particularly the Chinese economy. Following this decision the Euro appreciated against the dollar which could penalize the stocks of the main European exporting companies, including car manufacturers and luxury goods. During the session today (and probably in the coming sessions) investors will reshape their expectations after yesterday’s decision by the Fed and then readjust their portfolios. At the same time, investors of the Old Continent will monitor the reaction of the commodities market (interest rates affect doubly these assets as they influence economic activity and the evolution of the dollar, which has an inverse relationship with commodities). In addition, investors will monitor the reaction of the first emerging markets in Asia (Asian and southeast Turkey) then in Africa (especially South Africa) until the opening of the Mexican and Brazilian markets.
In the pre-opening, European shares traded with modest losses. Questions regarding the monetary policy of the Fed and the global economic situation will shape investor sentiment in the near future. In the medium term, the outlook for equity markets looks a bit threatening to the extent that uncertainties should not dissipate shortly. It is not excluded the occurrence of recoveries in prices (as a reaction to recent losses) but the underlying trend deserves caution. An uncertainty that was feared by investors would be a tie in the Greek elections, which did not materialize, and the Greek bonds climbed in the first hour of trading today.
The evolution of the Chinese economy and its impact on emerging markets as well as the perception of the market against the US monetary policy will be the most important variables. In this context, DAX is a single case. Although this index is also influenced by the external environment, some specific issues have conditioned the German market. The first is related to the uncertainty about the proceedings and costs that RWE and E.On have to dismantle its nuclear facilities after the law passed by the German government, which strongly penalized their actions. On the other hand, yesterday announced that Volkswagen cheated on CO2 emission levels in the US, which should involve payment of damages and possibly lawsuits. Another risk is that other governments as they examine the practices were committed in their countries. Through the automobile sector’s behavior from yesterday, there is a risk of contagion to other manufacturers, which may have acted within the rules.
The macroeconomic data from China justified the fears of investors about the Chinese and global economy. Despite this data, the prices of the main raw materials remained stable, so it can attend a less selling pressure on the mining and petroleum sectors, much penalized in recent sessions. The situation of the Volkswagen came additionally to stress the panorama of the automotive sector. After the strong recovery of the past two years, which ended a row of six years of contraction, the outlook for the automotive industry became less optimistic with declining sales in emerging markets (especially China) and with increasing environmental pressures in Zone euro. The case of Volkswagen (which has already established a provision of € 6500 M. to deal with legal processes) may increase the pressure on other manufacturers (even if they have met the standards). The diesel is not as used in the US as in Europe and the sale of diesel vehicles was one of the bets of European manufacturers to enter the market of this country. European manufacturers are world leaders in the technology of this type of vehicles. With the infringement committed by Volkswagen this bet of the European brands may be impaired. In a survey prepared by CNBC on its website, 58% of respondents said they will continue to buy a car diesel compared to 31% who do not have this intention. However, several European countries have already announced that they will conduct rigorous testing of vehicles powered by this fuel, which represent additional costs for car manufacturers. Today at 14h00, the ECB President Mario Draghi will give some perspectives on the current economic climate to the committee of economic and financial affairs of the European Parliament. Although the outlook for markets is still threatening, given recent declines one can not exclude any short-term recovery.
US markets closed yesterday without major fluctuations. This behavior turns out to be disappointing in light of recent losses suffered by the stock market. In fact, contrary to what occurred in Europe, the US indices were unable to rebound, In recent years, the “buying the dips” strategy (buy the corrections of the market) had been a very popular (and profitable) strategy among investors, whether institutional or private. However, in recent weeks there have been few followers, signaling that in August, the strong and sharp falls suffered and the volatility observed, marked investor sentiment. Today, the President of the Fed, Janet Yellen, will be present at a conference organized by the University of Massachusetts at 22h00. Given the uncertainty generated by her press conference in last week’s meeting, this time she may try alleviate the situation.
In the pre-opening, European shares traded with sharp gains. Contributing to this initial impulse were the words of Janet Yellen, the recovery of raw materials in the Asian session and some expectations that Volkswagen will present a new strategic plan that will draw the outline to solve the problems caused by the scandal of diesel engines. Despite this recovery the current environment continues to offer many challenges to investors, thus I'll keep a cautious stance.
In the pre-opening, European shares traded with some losses. The reverse of the trend of Wall Street on Friday should dictate investor sentiment at this early stage. The technology sector and pharmacist should be more sensitive because of the US biotech sector weakness. In Madrid, investors will react to election results in Catalonia. This region accounts for about 20% of the Spanish GDP. With 7.5 million inhabitants (of 46.7 million), GDP per capita is the fourth of the country (after Madrid, the Basque Country and Navarra), the unemployment rate of 19.10% against the national average of 22.37%. Catalonia is Spain’s most indebted region of the country (66 180 M. €).
Investors continue to focus on the ramifications of the Volkswagen situation (in the US has been dubbed DieselGate), in the automotive sector and in the German economy. In the near future, the new CEO Matthias Muller, will have to address several points. The first is how to deal with the 11 million vehicles (which may possibly be more) that were sold and did not meet the standards of CO2 emissions. The second is related to various lawsuits which begin to be brought against the company. The third relates to the reaction of many governments, the first was the Swiss that banned the sale of the related models. The fourth is the threat of some rating agencies cut the credit rating of VW debt, which would increase the company’s borrowing costs and reflect the leasing costs and financing of car buyers of the brand. But probably what most alarmed investors is the impact that will have on the German economy. According to the Ministry of Economy of this country, the automobile sector is, directly and indirectly, approximately 10% of GDP. In addition, some investors fear that this case compromise the good name and reputation that German industry has in the world.