Daily Market Analysis by FXNET - page 11
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Market News by FxNet
The U.S. dollar fell against the Euro for five consecutive sessions despite a positive survey which showed good US job data. Euro gains have been accumulating over the past month giving the shared currency a monthly boost of 2.2 percent against its U.S. counterpart. Gains however have been modest with the strongest gain of the month being 0.30 percent.
EUR/USD traded between 1.1132 and 1.1217 overnight, by Early Asian trading on Thursday the pair settled at 1.1207, a 0.03 percent gain. The pair is expected to find support at 1.1086 and resistance at 1.1562.
Despite underperforming against the Euro the dollar was supported by the U.S. Labour Department that said on Wednesday in its Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey that nationwide openings increased in July, reaching 5.8 million. In May the survey had hit 5.4 million and for July it hit a new record which is the highest in the 15 year history of surveys.
The job openings rate added 3.9 percent in July, after being at 3.6 percent for three months. This report balances out last Friday’s disappointing nonfarm payroll report.
USD/CAD added 0.36 percent to 1.3255, after the Bank of Canada (BOC) decided to keep its interest rates on the same level, USD/JPY added 0.58 percent closing at 120.50, the yen was affected by an unexpected fall of Japan’s key gauge of capital spending, this was its second consecutive fall in the last two months which highlights the economy’s weakness.
NZD/USD lost 1.82 percent trading at 0.6278 while AUD/USD lost 0.78 percent trading at 0.6963. The Aussie was affected by the overall employment rate fall which dropped to 6.2 percent from 6.3 with the addition of 11,500 jobs.
China’s struggling market saw further negativity, when China’s consumer inflation in August was higher, but producer prices fell for the forty second straight month keeping the country at risk of deflation.
With big slowdowns in the world’s second and third largest economies, global growth forecasts by ANZ bank were revised for the years 2016 and 2017 dropping the growth rate to 3.5 percent instead of the 4 percent which had been previously predicted.
The U.S. dollar index which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies lost 0.14 percent to 95.83.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for October delivery lost 0.05 percent on the New York Mercantile Exchange falling to 44.19 dollars a barrel.
Brent Crude for October delivery on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) lost 3.86 percent trading at 47.62 dollars a barrel.
Gold for December delivery added 0.33 percent on the Comex of the New York Mercantile Exchange trading at 1,105.60 dollars a troy ounce.
Silver futures for December delivery lost 0.04 percent to trade at 14.570 dollars a troy ounce.
Copper for December delivery added 0.39 percent to 2.432 dollars a pound.
The U.S. dollar which was weaker than most currencies for the past week saw some small gains as all eyes turn to the Fed meeting which begins today and ends tomorrow, and will announce interest rates decisions.
EUR/USD fell on Tuesday afternoon tumbling below the 1.13 level for the first time in four sessions.
The pair traded between 1.1259 and 1.1321 during Tuesday's session, it settled at 1.1269, 0.48 percent lower. EUR/USD was expected to find support at 1.1017 and resistance at 1.1562. Previously the Euro had been gaining for eight straight days before breaking the cycle on Tuesday as markets anticipated the Fed Meeting which convenes today and will go on till tomorrow.
Data released on Tuesday showed a 0.2 percent increase in retail sales for August which fell short from the 0.3 percent increase expectations. Core retail sales excluding automobiles added 0.1 percent in August lower than the expected 0.2 percent. US industrial production fell by 0.4 percent for August more than the expected 0.2 percent decline.
Last night AUD/USD lost 0.10 percent trading at 0.7134, while USD/JPY lost 0.05 percent to 120.36.
The U.S. dollar index which measures the greenback against the basket of six major currencies added 0.06 percent to 95.70 on Tuesday evening.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added 32 cents on Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange trading at 44.91 dollars per barrel, while Brent futures on the ICE futures exchange added 9 cents trading at 47.84 dollars a barrel.
US crude was supported by the American Petroleum Institute's (API) announcement that there has been a 3.1 million barrel decline in crude inventories instead of expectations for a rise. Official data will be released later in the day.
Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex of the New York Mercantile Exchange added 0.14 percent trading at 1,104.10 dollars a troy ounce.
Silver futures on the Comex added 0.10 percent trading at 14.340 dollars a troy ounce, while copper for December delivery lost 0.10 percent to 2.425 dollars a pound.
EUR/USD saw some gains on Wednesday afternoon after falling in the morning. The pair fluctuated between 1.1214 and 1.1321. It settled 0.20% up at 1.1288. Over the last month of trading the Euro has gained 1.75% in value against the American dollar. EUR/USD was expected to gain support at 1.1015 and resistance at 1.1625.
The office of National Statistics said U.K. retail sales were 0.2% higher in August as expected. They were 3.7% up from the same month the previous year, just a tick below the forecast 3.8%. Core retail sales which exclude automobile sales added 0.1% Month on Month for August and 3.6% Year on Year. GBP/USD rose up to 1.5526 and consolidated at 1.5495.
Statistics New Zealand showed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country was 0.4% higher for the second quarter (April-June) slightly lower than expectations of a 0.5% increase. The first quarter had seen a 0.2% increase. NZD/USD lost 0.14% consolidating at 0.6358.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced its decision to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at -0.75% as expected.
The bank also left the target range for the three months libor unchanged between -1.25% and -2.25%. The decision came after the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said its expectation for Switzerland's economic growth is at 0.9% for 2015 and 1.5% for 2016. USD/CHF fell 0.41% trading at 0.9673.
The US dollar Index which measures the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies lost over 0.40% on Wednesday to an intraday low of 95.30.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude were at 47.13 dollars per barrel at 4:30 GMT unchanged from their previous close, Brent was 6 cents higher at 49.81 dollars per barrel.
Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex of the New York Mercantile Exchange were at 1,118.3 dollars an ounce falling from overnight’s 1,122.4.
Silver Futures for December delivery lost 0.24% falling to 14.85 dollars an ounce. Copper for December delivery lost 0.62% to trade at 2.437 dollars a pound.
The interest rate decision will be announced by the Fed at 2 PM EST, 6 PM GMT.
The US dollar was steady to lower on Tuesday after recovering losses on Monday. Market volatility surrounding the Fed’s interest rate hike decision was the leading reason behind most currency movements, and now the Fed is coming under attack for prompting uncertainty.
EUR/USD lost 0.17 percent trading at 1.1172, its lowest level since September 9th.
Australia's second quarter house price index rose by 4.7 percent, higher than the 2.5 percent quarter on quarter rise. AUD/USD added 0.13 percent trading at 0.7140. The US dollar held strong despite yesterday's disappointing housing data report. USD/JPY lost 0.16 percent to 120.37.
The National Association of Realtors said on Monday that existing home sales lost 4.8 percent to an annual rate of 5.31 million units. Expectations were on a 5.51 million unit pace of home sales for August. From a year ago sales were up 6.2 percent. Nationwide the median home price fell slightly in August to 228,700 dollars, 4.7 percent higher than a year earlier but left the year over year rate at its lowest since August 2014. In the West, prices were up by 7.1.
The US dollar index which measures the greenbacks’ strength against a basket of six major currencies lost 0.07 percent overnight to 95.97 then rose to 96.15.
Overnight West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost 48 cents trading at 46.20 dollars per barrel, while Brent futures were 45 cents lower at 48.47 dollars a barrel. Prices fell after surging on Monday following a decline in US rigs drilling for oil. Prices are expected to rise according to Reuters analyst Wang Tao, who says Brent will rise to 49.70 dollars per barrel and WTI could reach 47.78 based on Fibonacci retracement indicators.
Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex of the New York Mercantile Exchnage traded at 1,133 dollars a troy ounce. Silver for December delivery lost 0.24 percent to 15.185 dollars a troy ounce, while Copper for December lost 0.27 percent to 2.383 dollars a pound.
Markets were mainly affected by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi’s speech. Draghi spoke in Brussels before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs on Wednesday saying that the future of the quantitative easing program is difficult to forecast.
"more time is needed to determine whether the loss of growth momentum in emerging markets is of a temporary or permanent nature and to assess the driving forces behind recent episodes of severe financial turbulence" he said.
Following Draghi's speech EUR/USD added 0.44 percent to 1.1105 and was expected to find support at 1.1086 and resistance at 1.1209. EUR/NZD lost 0.17 percent to 1.7785. EUR/GBP lost 0.2 percent to 73.29 pence.
Elsewhere total British car production rose almost 41 percent to 99.919 cars for August according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
The greenback was 0.2 percent lower than the Japanese yen in early Asian trading on Thursday at 120.03 yen.
AUD/USD remained close to its two and a half week lows at 0.6992 consolidating at 0.6997. The pair was expected to find support at 0.6942 and resistance at 0.7095.
NZD/USD added 0.26% to 0.6294. The pair was expected to find support at 0.6233 and resistance at 0.6405.
New Zealand's trade balance for August widened to a deficit of 1.035 billion NZ dollars month on month, higher than the 850 million NZ dollars deficit seen. Late on Wednesday NZD/USD added 0.17 percent to 0.6287.
The US dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies was up 0.1 percent during Thursday’s early Asian trade at 96.173; still below Wednesday’s two and a half week high of 96.548.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data on Wednesday showing that U.S. crude oil stocks were 1.9 million barrels lower for the week ending September 18th more than expectations of a 533,000 barrels decrease.
Oil prices gained momentum following the bullish news with Brent climbing 29 cents to 48.04 dollars a barrel. US Crude added 33 cents to 44.81 dollars a barrel.
Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex of the New York Mercantile Exchange lost 0.04 percent trading at 1,131.00 dollars a troy ounce. Elsewhere on the Comex Silver for December delivery added 0.04 percent to 14.795 dollars a troy ounce while Copper for December added 0.21 percent to 2.299 dollars a pound.
Markets were mainly affected by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi’s speech. Draghi spoke in Brussels before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs on Wednesday saying that the future of the quantitative easing program is difficult to forecast.
"more time is needed to determine whether the loss of growth momentum in emerging markets is of a temporary or permanent nature and to assess the driving forces behind recent episodes of severe financial turbulence" he said.
Following Draghi's speech EUR/USD added 0.44 percent to 1.1105 and was expected to find support at 1.1086 and resistance at 1.1209. EUR/NZD lost 0.17 percent to 1.7785. EUR/GBP lost 0.2 percent to 73.29 pence.
Elsewhere total British car production rose almost 41 percent to 99.919 cars for August according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
The greenback was 0.2 percent lower than the Japanese yen in early Asian trading on Thursday at 120.03 yen.
AUD/USD remained close to its two and a half week lows at 0.6992 consolidating at 0.6997. The pair was expected to find support at 0.6942 and resistance at 0.7095.
NZD/USD added 0.26% to 0.6294. The pair was expected to find support at 0.6233 and resistance at 0.6405.
New Zealand's trade balance for August widened to a deficit of 1.035 billion NZ dollars month on month, higher than the 850 million NZ dollars deficit seen. Late on Wednesday NZD/USD added 0.17 percent to 0.6287.
The US dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies was up 0.1 percent during Thursday’s early Asian trade at 96.173; still below Wednesday’s two and a half week high of 96.548.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data on Wednesday showing that U.S. crude oil stocks were 1.9 million barrels lower for the week ending September 18th more than expectations of a 533,000 barrels decrease.
Oil prices gained momentum following the bullish news with Brent climbing 29 cents to 48.04 dollars a barrel. US Crude added 33 cents to 44.81 dollars a barrel.
Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex of the New York Mercantile Exchange lost 0.04 percent trading at 1,131.00 dollars a troy ounce. Elsewhere on the Comex Silver for December delivery added 0.04 percent to 14.795 dollars a troy ounce while Copper for December added 0.21 percent to 2.299 dollars a pound.
AUSSIE REMAINS STEADY, GREENBACK GAINS
Chinese trade data still pressuring markets
Following the release of Australian consumer sentiment data, the aussie was slightly changed on Wednesday, as the kiwi slid down among worldwide concerns.
Markets were broadly affected by low Chinese trade data, which on Tuesday showed that china’s exports fell 24.4% instead of expectations of a 12.5% decrease, China being one of the world’s biggest importers tends to rattle markets when disappointing data comes through.
AUD/USD was trading at 0.7431.
According to The Westpac Banking Corporation, Australia’s consumer sentiment declined 2.2% in March, after a 4.2% rise last month.
Another report showed that home loans fell 3.9% in January, much higher than initial expectations of a 2.3% decline. A revised figure showed that December home loans had gained 2.7%, instead of the initially reported 2.6% gain.
NZD/USD fell 0.21% to trade at 0.7431, investors are looking ahead to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision, expected on Thursday.
Later in the day the RBNZ will release its Official Cash Rate, and Monetary Policy Statement followed by a press conference and a speech by Governor Wheeler.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.21% at 97.36, off the last session’s two-week low of 96.89.
The US will release wholesale inventories month on month later today.