The Complete German Election Preview: The Worst Case Scenario
The worst case scenario is that Merkel wins again and that Europe continues in the direction it is going now
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The 2013 German federal elections may bring about pretty complicated results. With Merkel's junior coalition partner's (FDP) support dropping below the mandated 5% to enter parliament (according to polls), as Deutsche Bank notes, there is no point in working through the numerous possible coalition scenarios and options. In that case, the task of governing Germany and providing joint leadership in European affairs will become much more complicated than it used to be in normal times of a clear-cut victory for one camp. All inter-camp coalitions may well have a built-in tendency towards paralysis and require special political tricks that allow the partners to show their true colors in clearly circumscribed policy issues while not rocking the boat. A few years from now, September 22, 2013, might be remembered as the day when German politics finally became normally complicated, as in other countries, too. There are two major political narratives that appear dominant currently.
Via Deutsche Bank,
In normal times, a popular leader, an all-time employment record and the traditional conservatism of the German electorate ought to suffice to keep a conservative chancellor in power. A recent poll by the Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach found that respondents did not think the election would matter much, a big majority expected a victory for Merkel (63%) and only one-third of respondents favoured a change in government. For the Social Democrats to win, it often takes deep-seated dissatisfaction of the electorate with the conservative incumbent, a generally strong desire for substantial policy change and an SPD candidate who possesses most outstanding leadership qualities. In the last century, it usually took a shift of the Liberals to the SPD caucus, too. That has happened every twenty years or so. Staying in power for another term is usually possible.
Yet why are the 2013 elections not a foregone conclusion? What’s wrong with 2013? Why should we bother at all about what some observers call a “non-event”? The answer is much more nuanced than one might think. It is not the impact of the financial crisis that is shaping German politics directly these days, even though different policy responses to the crises dominate the party platforms and the ideas driving them.
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