AUD/USD news - page 10
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AUD/USD forecast for the week of October 6, 2014
The AUD/USD pair initially rallied during the course of the week, slamming into the 0.88 handle. That level of course is massively resistive, and as a result we feel that the sellers will continue to step into this marketplace every time we rally. After all, the gold markets have been absolutely brutalize lately, and have broken down below the $1200 level, which is a sell signal for the longer-term charts as well. We believe that the gold markets are heading down to the $1000 handle, and that should translate into a much lower valued Australian dollar.
The shape of the candle of course tells us that the sellers are still in control and pressing the issue, and as a result we feel that the market will more than likely head to the 0.85 level looking for support. If we can get below there, we could go as low as the 0.80 handle. In fact, the 0.80 handle is a longer-term “pivot point” of sorts, as the market has quite often found the area to be like a magnet for price over the last several decades.
On the other hand, if we did break above the top of the shooting star for the week, it’s very likely that this market goes to the 0.90 level. The level is a significantly resistive very as well, so at that point time we would really like to see some type of resistant candle in order to start selling again, as we believe that this market will offer plenty of selling opportunities going forward for the rest of the year. If we did somehow get above the 0.90 level, this market could go as high as 0.9350 of the course of the next several weeks. However, we are a long way from doing that so it’s very likely that at this point time we won’t get an opportunity to buy the Australian dollar anytime soon. Remember to watch the gold markets, they should end up leading the way as the correlation continues longer-term.
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AUD/USD Forecast Oct. 6-10
The Australian dollar continues to lose ground, as AUD/USD lost about 70 points last week, closing at 0.8663. The pair dipped below the 0.8650 line, its lowest level in over four years. This week’s major events are the Cash Rate and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The US dollar received a boost from an excellent Nonfarm Payrolls late in the week. Australian data was a mix, as Retail Sales dipped, while Building Approvals posted a strong gain.
* All times are GMT.
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Australia Rate Decision On Tap For Tuesday
The Reserve Bank of Australia will on Tuesday conclude its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The RBA is widely expected to keep its benchmark on hold at 2.50 percent.
Australia also will see September results for the Performance of Construction Index from AiG; in August, the index had a score of 55.0.
Japan will see preliminary August numbers for its leading and coincident indexes. The leading index is expected to show a score of 104.0, down from 105.4, while the coincident is expected to dip to 108.6 from 109.8 a month earlier.
The Philippines will provide August numbers for producer prices and September figures for consumer prices. PPI was down 0.6 percent on month and 2.0 percent on year in July, while CPI added 0.3 percent on month and 4.9 percent on year in August.
The central bank in Indonesia will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and announce its decision on interest rates; the central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark on hold at 7.50 percent.
Hong Kong will see September results for the manufacturing PMI from Markit Economics; in August, the index posted a score of 49.6.
Finally, the markets in China remain closed for the National Day holiday, and will return to action on Wednesday.
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Those Australian job gains were indeed too good to be true – AUD/USD slides
Australia reported a unbelievable gain of 121K jobs in August, way off the chart. That was taken with a grain of salt at the time, and now the Australian Bureau of Statistics has made the bold decision of changing it by basically removing the seasonal adjustment. So, that means that Australia gained only 32.1K jobs in August.
This comes one day ahead of September’s jobs data, and already has some negative impact on the Aussie.
July’s fall in jobs is also lower on the removal of seasonal adjustment: from 11.9K to 4.1K now. This is actually a small improvement. August has the bigger impact. We do not know the impact that this has on he unemployment rate, but it is set to rise for August.
For the month of September, the current estimations stand on a loss of around 30K. This will definitely shake the Aussie. See how to trade the Australian employment change with AUDUSD.
AUD/USD reached a high 0.8828, matching previous highs, and has since lost ground. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.8770, and this is a battleground.
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AUD: Don’t Sell At Current Levels; Correction Risk Intact – Credit Agricole
The Australian dollar had a wobble following the announcement about a change in the seasonal adjustments to the employment data and after the RBA decision.
What’s next for the Aussie? Credit Agricole says that a correction risk is intact.
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
Stable RBA monetary policy expectations should leave the AUD driven by external factors such as global risk sentiment and Fed monetary policy expectations.
This is especially true as the central bank appears to be somewhat less cautious when it comes to the currency’s high valuation. Although the central bank still regards the AUD as being high by historical standards it refrained from calling it overvalued according to most fundamental estimates.
Looking ahead, we anticipated further upside correction risk. First of all we see scope of Fed speakers sounding more cautious this week.
This is mainly due to a high USD’s dampening impact on inflation expectations, which have been falling during the past few weeks. Accordingly we advise against selling AUD/USD around the current levels.
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AUD/USD forecast for the week of October 13, 2014
The AUD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but gave back all of the gains in order to form a massive shooting star. The shooting star sits right on the top of massive support, so we feel that this market will more than likely break down at this point. We feel that the market should then head to the 0.85 handle, and then possibly the 0.80 level as well. We have no interest in buying the Australian dollar at the moment, as the gold markets are certainly working against its value.
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AUD/USD falls from false breakout, still in high range
The Australian dollar showed a lot of strength in recent days and managed to top the 0.89 level on Fed Day. But then came the Fed, and turned everything around.
Yellen and her colleagues not only ended QE, but acknowledged the improvement in job market. AUD/USD fell from the highs, losing support at 0.8820 and also dipping below 0.88. The move above 0.89 proved to be a false break, or an opportunity to go short at resistance.
Hawkishness from the Fed is quite uncommon and could be clearly seen via the type of dissent: it was dovish. The Fed was not too worried about inflation either. The only thing that wasn’t too hawkish was the phrase about interest rates: they are set to stay low for a considerable time.
There are good reasons for the Fed to be hawkish about the US economy: jobs are growing nicely, and this is seen in the Non-Farm Payrolls, JOLTs (which the Fed eyes) and jobless claims, which are at the lowest since the year 2000.
For Australian policymakers, this is good news: the RBA would like to see a weaker Australian dollar, perhaps as low as 0.85, if we quote a rare statement from RBA governor Glenn Stevens.
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AUD/USD news
AUD/USD: Trading the Australian Employment Change
Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.
Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.
Employment Change looked awful in September, with a reading of -29.7 thousand. This surprised the markets, which had stood at 17.6 thousand. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround, with a forecast of 10.3 thousand.
Sentiment and Levels
The US dollar has benefited from a US economy which continues to expand at an impressive clip, led by a strong GDP and excellent consumer confidence numbers. With the Fed giving the economy a thumbs up and concluding QE last week, the next move is a rate hike in 2015. Down Under, the RBA made no move with interest rates, and this week’s key numbers will have to be strong if the Aussie hopes to hold its own against the US dollar. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.9185, 0.90, 0.8891, 0.8750, 0.8660 and 0.8550.
5 Scenarios
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Australian dollar flat ahead of Q4 CPI, eyes on Fed
The Australian dollar was flat to weaker ahead of consumer priced data for the last quarter of 2014 with investors also focused on the latest upcoming Federal Reserve statement on monetary policy.
AUD/USD traded at 0.7936, flat, while USD/JPY changed hands at 117.82, down 0.02%.
Australia reports fourth quarter CPI, with quarter-on-quarter data seen up 0.3% for a year-on-year figure of 1.8%, well below the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2% to 3% inflation target.
Ahead of that, Westpac-MI publishes the leading index for December. The leading index has been pointing toward
sub-trend growth heading into 2015 and the same is expected in the latest index.
Overnight, the dollar extended losses against the other major currencies on Tuesday, after the release of mixed U.S. economic reports, as investors turned their attention to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy statement on Wednesday.
The Conference Board said its index of U.S. consumer confidence improved to an eight-year high of 102.9 this month from a reading of 93.1 in December, whose figure was revised up from a previously reported 92.6.
Analysts expected the index to increase to 95.1 in January.
Separately, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that new home sales climbed by 11.6% to 481,000 units last month, above expectations for 450,000. New home sales in November were revised down to 431,000 units from a previously reported 438,000 units.
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AUD/USD falls towards 0.78 on monetary policy divergence speculation
The Australian dollar hit new 2009 lows against the US dollar as both countries seem to go in different directions.
AUD/USD reached a low of 0.7827, breaking below the 0.7850 line that was the previous support line.
The Federal Reserve made no earth shattering changes to its statement: it still sees quite a few positives in the US economy while calling for patience regarding normalizing monetary policy – raising the interest rates.
While Yellen and co. did express some worries about international developments, this was quite sidelined by the upbeat wording on the solid economy and strong job growth.
In New Zealand, Australia’s neighbor, the tone was different: the RBNZ switched to neutral stance: a rate hike is no longer on the cards, and this makes sense after the fall in inflation.
Australia did not incur a drop in inflation: the trimmed mean CPI actually beat expectations and y/y it remains above 2.2%. However, when everybody is busy in a currency war, Australia probably cannot stay behind.
Speculation is mounting in the Australian press about a rate hike as soon as February 4th. Will the RBA slash 25 basis points and set the interest rate at 2.25%? They could do it now or in March.
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