Daily Technical Analysis for Majors
(Daily Technical Analysis for Majors
EUR/USD Rises On Greek Debt Deal Optimism
EUR/USD:
The EUR/USD has managed to stay above 1.3100 and climbed slowly but the pair couldn’t pass 1.3160 resistance. There are important events today so the market may stay calm during the Asian session. Investors will focus on the ECB policy decision and participation in the Greek debt swap. Reports about Greece’s debt restructuring efforts made some progress stopped the euro from falling deeper. A positive outcome should clear the way for the next aid package and help Greece avoid a messy default. However, any suggestion the deadline might be extended would probably disappoint the markets. It is quite possible that the pair will continue its bullish tendencies on hopes but the bulls have to move above 1.3160 first. If the pair can pass and stay above this level, the pair may test 1.3240 resistance first, next though resistance will be waiting the bulls at 1.3220. If the pair fails to stay above 1.3160, we will eventually go below 1.3100 and test 1.3000.
GBP/USD:
It seems that the bearish action on the GBP/USD ended temporarily. The pair was able to stay above 1.57 support but it is still below an important resistance at 1.5765. BoE policy decision today will probably send the cable either above 1.5765 or below 1.5700. If the bulls can pass 1.5765, 1.5810 and 1.5880 will be the next resistance levels ahead of them. If the pair falls below 1.5700, we may see 1.5640 in a short time. 1.5560 is the next support below that.
AUD/USD:
Even though employment figures were worse than expected, AUD/USD managed to stay 1.0550 level so far today. This level is also the 23.6% fibonacci level based on the bullish run from 09662 to 1.0850. As a result I think that the pair will make an attempt to pass 1.0600 resistance first. If the pair can break this level, the bulls may have a chance to test 1.0690 resistance. If the pair closes today below 1.0550, then it will head to 1.0440.
USD/JPY:
After failing to break the 82 line the pair fell back and found support at 80.60. The pair may consolidate between 81.85 and 80.60 this week before we see a breakout. If the pair makes a close above 82, look for 94. On the down side, watch for support at 80.60 and 80.25.
Resource: Fx Technical Trade
The European Central Bank Kept Interest Rates Unchanged
EUR/USD:
The pair was pretty bullish yesterday and managed to close above daily moving average(100). The latest news about Greece was positive and The ECB signaled that it won’t cut interest rates further. The euro is being bought because Greece is overcoming a hurdle but of course we need to see the announcement and more details before making any decisions. Today, there is a good chance that markets will turn their focus to the U.S. economy. I expect today’s range will be between 1.3320 and 1.3240 ahead of the release of U.S. employment data. If the pair can stay above 1.3240 there is a strong possibility that we will test 1.3320 resistance. Above that level, I will look for 1.3390 and 1.3480. However, if the bears take over the control and bring the pair below 1.3240, we will head to 1.3160 again.
GBP/USD:
The cable climbed yesterday after it passed the first barrier at 1.5765. It is quite possible that the pair will continue its bullish tendencies (if it can stay above 1.5790) and try to test the next resistance at 1.5880. But if the pair falls below that line, we will head back to 1.5765/35 zone.
AUD/USD:
The latest report released by the Bureau of Statistics showed Australia’s trade balance unexpectedly turned to a deficit. AUD/USD needs to pass 1.0690 level in order to continue rising but it may be hard. I think we will spend some more days between 1.0690 and 1.0550.
USD/CAD:
USD/CAD fell back to 0.9900 line after it failed to stay above the parity. If the pair can’t move above 0.9930 during London session, I think it is highly possible that the pair will test 0.9850 support today. If the bulls can push the pair above 0.9930 level again, we will test 1.00 level next week.
Source: Fx Technical Trade
Markets Continue To React To Weak Chinese Data
EUR/USD:
The pair rose on hopes eurozone finance ministers will complete a second Greek bailout today. If everything goes fine Greece will receive €5.9 billion within this month. Today the markets’ focus will be on the U.S. as investors awaits policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. I think the pair will be capped under 1.3220 resistance line until the announcement. So I expect that the pair will consolidate between 1.3160 and 1.3220/40 before the announcement. 1.3220/40 zone is a tough nut to crack but if it can push through this key resistance, the pair will test 1.3265. If EUR/USD falls below 1.3140, support will be seen at 1.3090 and 1.3040. I am bearish on this pair until it trades above 1.33
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD is hovering around a critical support level at 1.5645. The pair will be under the selling pressure as long as price remains below 1.5765. Today resistance levels to watch will be 1.5670, 1.5722 and 1.5765. To the downside, there is support at 1.5645, 1.5580 and 1.5510.
AUD/USD:
AUD/USD is losing its strength as markets continue to react to weak Chinese trade figures. Yesterday the pair fell to 1.0472, its lowest level since January 25. The market is bearish below 1.0600 and the pair will possibly test 1.0400 support unless the bulls manage to pull the pair above this key level. If the pair makes a daily close above 1.0600, I will be looking for 1.0690. If the bears continue the push downward, look for support at 1.0440, 1.0400 and 1.0305
USD/JPY:
The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy has been in the spotlight after surprising markets by boosting asset purchases by 10 trillion yen. Today BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will hold a news conference at around 0630 GMT, after the central bank’s policy statement. If BoJ conducts more monetary easing, we may see the pair testing 83.09 and 83.40 levels. To the downside, there will be support at 81.85, 81,09 and 80,60.
USD Faces Profit Taking
EUR/USD:
The US dollar weakened against the euro, despite the data released last night showed the U.S. economy continues to improve. EUR/USD was in a consolidation mode during the Asian and London sessions. EUR/USD climbed after failing to break below 1.3000 support level. Now the pair is trading at 1.3085. In order to remain bullish, price needs to break 1.3160. If the bulls can penetrate this barrier, the next and important resistance, which is also daily moving average(100), is located at 1.3220. If the bears increase the pressure and take over, the pair will revisit support at 1.3000. Again markets will be most focused on figures that provide a measure of strength of the U.S. economy. Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and CPI numbers will be released today.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD had been very choppy yesterday. The near-term news has undoubtedly got better, certainly than was the case in November. It is also possible that funding and credit conditions could improve. As a result, the pair rose and tested EMA(34). This is a critical level for the Cable. It will need to break above 1.5700 before challenging 1.5810 on its way to 1.6000. This is possible for sure, but it is early to tell. However if price turns bearish and the bears follow through, the pair’s next targets will be 1.5530 and 1.5470.
AUD/USD:
Data this month has shown just how much pain the strong AUD has inflicted on Australia’s economy. However demand from central banks seeking to diversify their reserves has been holding the AUD above the parity for a long time. AUD/USD is trading at 1.0543 by the time of typing and 4-Hour chart is indicating that we could see prices pushing higher. The pair stopped its fall yesterday at the 38.2 fibonacci level and bounced back to 1.0500 resistance after it broke the wedge formation. If the pair holds above 1.0500, look for 1.0599 and 1.0690. If the bears win the battle, there will be support at 1.0477 and 1.0400.
USD and EUR
slipped against CHF after the Swiss National Bank kept policy steady as expected. The SNB doubled its growth forecast for 2012 and said it was determined to enforce its cap on the strong franc at 1.20 per euro because it was helping stabilize the economy. The Swiss franc strengthened after the SNB announcement and pulled back to 0.9200. If price holds above 0.9200 and turns bullish, look for resistance at 0.9287 and 0.9347. If it can’t stay above 0.9200, look for support at 0.9140 and 0.9090.
The IMF Approved €28 Billion Loan For Greece
EUR/USD:
USD sell off was the theme of Friday after the US data was released. The softer than expected CPI report and weaker University of Michigan CSI proved sufficient enough reason to sell the greenback across the board. A rise in Treasury bond yields after recent strong economic data indicated that investors betting that the Fed may be more aggressive and tighten monetary policy sooner than anticipated. EUR/USD bounced from 1.3003 (which is 23.6 fibo retracement) and closed the week at 1.3165. The pair also formed a hammer on the weekly chart. This indicates that the pair will test daily moving average (100), which is located at 1.3210. If the pair is strong enough pass 1.3210/40 resistance zone, look for 1.3300, 1.3370 and 1.3455. If price does not break and hold above 1.3240, then it will retrace to at least 1.3110.
GBP/USD:
The cable closed the week at 1.5830 after a bullish week. It seems that the pair will test 1.5880, the first barrier which the bears will try to stop the bulls. If the bulls win the fight, look for 1.5932 1.5986. However, it is possible that the pair will retrace back to 1.5810 or 1.5780 before edging higher.
USD/CHF:
The USD/CHF had reversed after failing to break the strong resistance at 0.9330. If the pair turns north and climb on Monday, expect resistance at 0.9200, 0.9250 and 0.9300/30 levels. I think this week’s range will be between 0.9250 and 0.9050. To the downside, there is support at 0.9150 and 0.9085.
USD/JPY:
It seems that USD/ JPY will have hard time breaking the long term trend line. If the bears increase the pressure, expect it to retrace to at least 82.93 or 82.40. To the upside, there will be resistance at 84.15 and 84.78. It is possible to see USD/JPY testing resistance at 83.80 so I would advise watching JPY crosses as well.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
EUR/USD Climbs As Eurozone Worries Ease
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD had a bullish day after New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley’s comments fueled worries about the health of the U.S. economy. He said “The U.S. economy still faces significant headwinds and there are some meaningful downside risks. It is far too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods in terms of generating a strong, sustainable recovery.”. Even though there has been no significant improvement in the eurozone, 1.30 support remained intact lately. EUR/USD daily charts suggest that the pair will remain bullish as long as the pair trades above 1.3200. If the pair holds above 1.3210, which is the daily moving average (100), it is possible to see another attempt towards 1.3400 level. If price does rally and resume heading north, look for resistance at 1.3290 and 1.3330. If the pair reverses at 1.3240, which is 38.2 fibonacci level, support will be seen at 1.3200, 1.3160 and 1.3110.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD has been doing its best to sustain these extreme overbought levels. The U.K. has the third highest deficit in the G-7 but the market remains optimistic as the country will not ease austerity in its budget. I expect to see some retracement and touch 1.5850/30 before the bulls try to push the pair higher. If the pair can move above 1.5880, it would head to previous month’s high at 1.5990. If prices turn bearish from here, look for support at 1.5830, 1.5800 and 1.5770.
AUD/USD:
AUD/USD has been pulling back lately, but the previous week it found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level. The pair has been overly bullish for several months now, and it appears that the pair completed a sell-off since 29 February. As a result, the pullbacks are probably going to attract buyers going forward. Worries about the Chinese economy is slowing may put pressure on AUD though. Resistance levels to watch will be 1.0665, 1.0705 and 1.0800 with support levels at 1.0550, 1.0510 and 1.0420.
USD/CAD:
This pair has been looking for a direction for weeks. The upside is protected by the parity level and the Canadian dollar normally gains from higher oil prices so it is hard to buy this pair at the moment. On the way down there will be support at 0.9850, 0.9790 and 0.9705. Resistance levels are located at 0.9905, 1.0000 and 1.0050.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
Investors are Cautious Ahead of Bernanke’s Testimony
EUR/USD:
Economic data released from the Eurozone and the U.S. were slightly better than expected. EUR/USD traded as low as 1.3172 but European Central Bank council member Ewald Nowotny’s comments on Portugal and current situation pushed the pair above 1.3220. Even though the pair had a bearish day, price is still above 100 daily moving average. Daily charts indicate that the bulls will try to push the pair above 1.3250 once more. 1.3250 is a vital point at the moment. If the bulls want to dominate the pair, they should definitely shatter this barrier. The next resistance levels to watch will be 1.3287, 1.3350 and 1.3410. If prices turn bearish from here, look for support at 1.3200, 1.3160 and 1.3092. Today, the market’s focus will be on the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Existing home sales data.
GBP/USD:
After 3 bullish days, GBP/USD had an inside day (which technically means that a move above/below yesterday’s high/low tends to extend that direction further) with a lower close. The bears are trying to protect 1.5900 barrier as much as possible and the bulls are defending 1.5800 support level. Once this range is broken, the cable will close the week accordingly. Though, the sentiment is bullish as long as the pair trades above 1.5800. Resistance levels to watch will be 1.5900, 1.5970/90 and 1.6021 with support levels at 1.5800, 1.5744 and 1.5640.
AUD/USD:
The Chinese slowdown had an effect on the commodity currencies, especially on Australian dollar. AUD fell against USD after BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) said China’s steel production is slowing, boosting concern about the nation’s growth outlook. The pair stopped its bearish free fall at 1.0450. As long as 1.0450/20 zone can hold it is possible to see an attempt to climb towards 1.0600. If AUD/USD can pass and hold above this level look for 1.0552 and 1.0630. If the pair resumes its fall, there will be support at 1.0420, 1.0374 and 1.0310.
USD/CHF:
After the pair failed to pass 0.9300, it has been sinking. It seems that the pair found some support again at 0.9100 but I doubt it will hold today.If it breaks below 0.9080, look for support at 0.9040 and 0.8990. To the upside, there will be resistance at 0.9160, 0.9210 and 0.9250.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
JPY Gains On Unexpected Trade Surplus
EUR/USD:
The euro ran out of steam just below 1.33. EUR/USD fell after the latest data showed that the U.S. housing market is stabilizing and very gradually carving out a recovery. Also fading expectations of more monetary easing by the Federal Reserve hampered the euro. There is a tough battle going on between the bulls and the bears so it is probably better to step aside and just watch until the dust settles. The pair has to stay above 1.32 key level in order to have another change to break 1.3280. Closing above this level will mean a re-test of last month’s high at 1.3484. If the bears win the battle and push the pair below 1.3200, look for support at 1.3156/46, 1.3100 and 1.3040. A close below 1.3150 may increase the selling pressure on the pair remarkably.
GBP/USD:
The GBP/USD stumbled from the 1.5924 following a much more dovish release of the BOE minutes. The pair tested 1.5820 after BOE members Posen and Miles voted for further quantitative easing. Unexpected increase in the public sector borrowing was another important element. The pair has been stuck in 1.58-1.59 range for 3 days, therefore the outlook is unclear while we continue to trade in this range. At this point it would be more logical to wait for a breakout of this 1.5800-900 sideways range to get clear idea on the further direction of move. Once the pair breaks out this range, Resistance levels to watch will be 1.5960, 1.5990 and 1.6021 with support levels at 1.5740 and 1.5650.
USD/CHF:
USD/CHF got good support near 0.9080 and bounced above 0.9115. If price can stay above this level and moves higher, look for resistance at 0.9200, 0.9250 and 0.9330. Pair would turn bullish if 0.9250 is left behind. If the bears win and we see prices break the support zone at 0.9080, look for support at 0.9038, 0.9015 and 0.8930.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY closed the day lower than open. The pair climbed to 84.08 but couldn’t pass this strong barrier. Daily candle indicates that the higher prices are being rejected by traders, as a result it is possible to see the pair sliding back to 82.96. If 82.96 support is broken, look for 82.30 and 81.85. To the upside, there will be resistance at 83.70, 84.15 and 85.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
Chinese Data Disappoints Forex Investors
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD had a very volatile day after this morning’s terrible data out of Europe and the better than forecasted US data. The softer European data is forcing investors to watch European peripheral states again, as reports circulate about concerns many have about Spain. The yield on the Spanish 10-year note continues to push out to fresh two-month highs. While few expect the euro zone’s debt crisis to be resolved anytime soon, given that crucial structural reforms require several years, investors were yet again reminded of the long road ahead. EUR/USD bounced after touching daily moving average (50) and now the pair is trying to pass 1.3200 line. If the pair can’t stay above 1.3180 which is also daily moving average (100), it would pull back to 1.3150 area again. A weekly close below 1.3150 may give hard time to EUR bulls. In order for the bulls to take control, they should pull the pair above 1.3230 at least. Tomorrow resistance levels to watch will be 1.3230, 1.3280 and 1.3352 with support levels at 1.3150, 1.3100 and 1.3030.
GBP/USD:
The latest retail sales data showed that sales including fuel fell 0.8% from January. This indicates that consumers will be cautious in their spending for some time. Today’s retail sales data add to evidence that growth expectations for the first quarter are probably going to have to be lowered. GBP/USD dived after the news and traded as low 1.5770. The pair found support at this EMA 34 level and bounced back to 1.5820. If the pair passes and holds above this crucial, the bulls may find the power they need to break 1.5900 and 1.5970. If the bears increase the pressure, look for support at 1.5744 and 1.5650.
AUD/USD:
Another round of weak Chinese data hit the Australian dollar. The HSBC Flash Manufacturing China PMI data, the earliest indicator of China’s industrial activity, showed further contraction. AUD/USD broke an important support level at 1.0420 and fell sharply. For now price is hovering around 1.0350 support. If the pair finds strong support, it is possible to see a bounce to previous support (now resistance) at 1.0420. Above 1.0420, there will be more resistance at 1.0470 and especially 1.0525. As long as the pair trades below 1.0420, it is highly possible to see 1.0250 very soon.
USD/CAD:
The USD/CAD pair has been in a tight range for some time. The biggest reason for this is the fact that the oil markets have been so erratic. The Greenback continued to climb against the Canadian dollar but the bears are defending the parity level again. But it may not be so long. If the pair can break 1.00 level, it will have a chance to test 1.0050 resistance. Above 1.0050 there will be resistance at 1.0100 and 1.0153. To the downside there will be support at 0.9941, 0.9900 and .09870.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
EUR/USD Gains on U.S. Outlook
EUR/USD:
The forex market was volatile as the headlines and investors’ focus changed often during the last two days. EUR/USD slipped after disappointing Manufacturing and Services PMI figures, and then the next day the pair climbed and hit 1.3290 after the U.S. Census Bureau reported that new single-family home sales came in weaker than expected, stoking fears that housing sector still faces hurdles. Well, the moving averages are coming together and the market is looking for a move to follow. Probably Monday or Tuesday the investors will see where the pair going next. Last week’s weekly candle was a hammer and Friday’s close was higher than the previous 4 days. The weekly chart is positive and showing that it is possible for the pair to go all the way up to the 1.3385-1.3405 area as long as it holds above 1.3210-1.3190. Passing 1.33 barrier would give the bulls the fuel they need. If the pair turns bearish and falls breaks below 1.3150, expect support at 1.3200, 1.3160 and 1.3100. German business, consumer climate and US consumer confidence figures will be watched closely.
GBP/USD:
For the last 2 months the pair has been trapped in a range which is about 400 pips wide. With the budget problems still weighing on Britain’s AAA credit rating, and slowing recovery in the US economy, the investors can’t seem to make up their mind about GBP/USD. So for the moment all we are dealing with is flat on macd. It is positive that the pair is trading above 50 daily moving average but the bulls failed to climb above 1.5900 for the last 5 trading days. If price does rally and resume heading north, look for plenty of resistance at 1.5900 and 1.6000. If price reverses and starts to head south, 1.5800 will be an important level to watch. A daily close below this level may send the pair back to 1.5650. In addition, the pair appears to be forming a classic head&shoulders pattern on the daily chart GBP/USD will need to break either above 1.5900 or lower than 1.5800 before it can resume trending.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY broke below 82.96 support, retraced back to test it as resistance and fell afterwards. For now it seems that the pair stopped its bearish free fall but as long as it trades below 83 level, selling pressure would increase in time. The pair may test 81.85 support, which also short term daily trend line, before it starts rising. If the bulls take over, look for 82.96, 83.70 and 84.10. Keep in mind that Bank of Japan will be watching the pair closely.
USD/CHF:
The pair closed the week just above an important support line at 0.9080. The pair looks heavy when it trades below 0.9200. If the bearish action continues today and beyond, there will be support at 0.9016 and 0.8930. To the upside, there will be resistance at 0.9150, 0.9200 and 0.9250.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
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