Update - Daily Technical Levels from FXCC - page 30
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Market Overview by FXCC Sep 12 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 12 2012
Consensus ESM approved: Will it come with conditions?
“Market consensus for tomorrow's Constitutional Court judgement is overwhelmingly that the Constitutional Court will not block ESM and the Fiscal Pact: 99% of respondents in our Investor poll this week subscribe to this view.” According to a Reuters poll of 20 legal experts, there is unanimous consensus the soon-to-be-established ESM will be approved but with strings as the wildcard. Strings could mean a German limit on contributions, making a case for euro shorts ahead of the court decision, due at 0800 GMT today.
London session ahead will be very busy as the common currency faces one of most important days ahead for its future. There are plenty of risk events in the coming hours, that will presumable pick volatility up. For starters in terms of macro data EUR related France will release CPI figures for Aug at 05:30 GMT, followed by German CPI 30 minutes later, and French current account at 06:45 GMT. Spain CPI will be out at 07:00 GMT, followed by Italian industrial production 1 hour later, and EU industrial production along with Portugal CPI another hour after.
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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12092012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-12 06:00 GMT | Germany. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Aug)
2012-09-12 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Claimant Count Change (Aug)
2012-09-12 09:00 GMT | E.M.U. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Jul)
2012-09-12 21:00 GMT | New Zealand. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-12 04:43 GMT | EUR/USD above 1.2850 ahead of a crucial day for the common currency
2012-09-12 03:30 GMT | NZD/USD rally hits 0.8200, highest in 5 weeks
2012-09-12 02:45 GMT | AUD/JPY approaching 50% Fibo res.
2012-09-12 01:54 GMT | USD/JPY rising back toward 78.00 as Asia turns ‘risk-on’
EURUSD : 1.28724 / 1.28727
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3018 | 1.2952 | 1.2885
1.2837 | 1.2767 | 1.2701
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Constitutional court expected to give its preliminary ruling on the ESM and the fiscal compact today, this would be the major market driver for the currency. Our target at 1.2870 was met yesterday and market closed on a positive note. Fresh high, formed today at 1.2885 (R1) is a next attractive point for the uptrend penetration. If a brake occur here we suggest gradual targets to be placed at 1.2952 (R2) and 1.3018 (R3). Next upcoming support holds at 1.2837 (S1), a consolidation development below it might take the pair towards to eventual supports located at 1.2767 (S2) and 1.2701 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.60766 / 1.60774
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6186 | 1.6136 | 1.6085
1.6051 | 1.5997 | 1.5940
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Cable managed to advance above the suggested resistance level at 1.6034 and printed a fresh high during the European session at 1.6085 (R1), which is our next resistance level for today. Rise above it might keep the bearish pressure intact and expose next targets at 1.6136 (R2) and 1.6186 (R3) later on today. We placed our next support level below the both moving averages at 1.6051 (S1). Loss here might enable bearish pressure and downgrade Cable towards to expected targets at 1.5997 (S2) and 1.5940 (S3). United Kingdom Claimant Count Change at 08:30 GMT is the next data release in focus.
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USDJPY : 77.884 / 77.889
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.33 | 78.17 | 78.01
77.69 | 77.51 | 77.33
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
USDJPY gained momentum yesterday and reached our downside target at 77.81. A medium-term bias is negative now though intraday bullish forces might be activated if the pair penetrates above the resistance level at 78.01 (R1). Next immediate resistance levels holds at 78.17 (R2) and 78.33 (R3). Conversely, next support level stays right below the fresh low, provided yesterday at 77.69 (S1). Brake here would suggest next target at 77.51 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 77.33 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading Software | ECN Forex News Trading | Forex Options Trading | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 13 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 13 2012
QE3 done deal or coinflip?
An overwhelming majority, as reflected by recent USD selling, sees it obvious that the economy in the US is weak, and with Bernanke reminding how well past QEs have worked in his speech at Jackson Hole, not to forget the last straw being the big miss in last Friday's NFP reports, talking about a fresh wave of money printing announced today seems logical. On the other hand, there is a case that points towards 'disappointment' being a prospect not that distant. With Europe having kicked the can down the road yet again thru new stimulus policies by the ECB – subject to Spain bailout request and the economic data in the US modestly upbeat in general in early September, one may also make the case for another month of 'wait-and-see” by the Fed. Not to forget is election time in the US, and any new 'money printing' may be controversial.
London session ahead will be a quite one data related waiting for the key event for the day in the form of FOMC Fed fund rates at 16:30 GMT. During the European hours, few major risk events will be coming from Switzerland, so some volatility could be expected around EUR/CHF cross given latest moves, while for EUR macro data related the EU will publish ECB monthly bulletin at 08:00 GMT at the same time than Italy CPI, followed 1 hour later by EU labor costs index.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-13 07:30 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Interest Rate Decision
2012-09-13 08:00 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Monthly Report
2012-09-13 18:15 GMT | United States. Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
2012-09-13 16:30 GMT | United States. Fed Interest Rate Decision
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-13 04:34 GMT | GBP/USD moving sideways above 1.61
2012-09-13 04:33 GMT | EUR/USD threatening recent 4-month highs
2012-09-13 01:16 GMT | EUR/AUD prints “Pin,” set for bullish continuation?
2012-09-13 00:54 GMT | Potential for further USDJPY selling post FOMC - UBS
EURUSD : 1.29249 / 1.29254
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3086 | 1.3018 | 1.2952
1.2876 | 1.2817 | 1.2748
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Following the German ratification of the ESM, EURUSD bounced though closed trading session on the positive tone. The Focus will now shift to Thursday's FOMC meeting at 18:15 GMT. Currently pair is moving towards to our next resistance level at 1.2952 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 1.3018 (R2) and 1.3086 (R3). The downside trend evolvement is limited by next support level at 1.2876 (S1), brake here might lead to the next targets execution at 1.2817 (S2) and 1.2748 (S3).
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GBPUSD : 1.61173 / 1.61182
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6235 | 1.6186 | 1.6136
1.6079 | 1.6035 | 1.5985
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Pair has settled positive bias on the hourly timeframe but recently looks overbought. From the technical side, upside pressure might force the market to test next resistance level at 1.6136 (R1). Successful penetration above it might provide sufficient space for the price increase towards to our next targets at 1.6186 (R2) and 1.6235 (R3). On the flip side, depreciation below the support level at 1.6079 (S1) would enable our targets at 1.6035 (S2) and 1.5985 (S3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 77.717 / 77.721
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.17 | 78.01 | 77.86
77.69 | 77.51 | 77.33
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Current installation might suggest us about the bearish market sentiment. Morning decline below the key support level at 77.69 (S1) might open the road towards to lower targets, located at the same levels as yesterday for the downside penetration: 77.51 (S2) and 77.33 (S3).A move above the resistance level at 77.86 (R1) might drive price towards to the next target at 78.01 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by last resistance at 78.17 (R3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Practice Account | ECN Broker | ECN Forex | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 14 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 14 2012
On USD/JPY intervention watch today - Westpac
According to Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac: "Some support came from NY traders telling news wires that the Bank of Japan had checked prices. We also heard an anonymous Japanese govt official deeming post-FOMC yen moves to be 'very excessive, speculative'." Westpac are very much on Intervention watch today.
London session ahead will bring EU CPI and employment figures, along with Italy current account at 09:00 GMT, with no more EUR/USD macro data related for the day till the NY session time, when before it opens, US CPI and retail sales are expected at 12:30 GMT. No sovereign debt auction in the euro zone as usual for Fridays. Monthly currency options expire during the weekend.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-14 09:00 GMT E.M.U. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
2012-09-14 12:30 GMT United States. Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
2012-09-14 13:15 GMT United States. Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
2012-09-14 13:55 GMT United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sep) Preliminar
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-14 04:36 GMT EUR/USD above 1.30 ahead of ECOFIN
2012-09-14 02:39 GMT AUD/JPY hits 82.00
2012-09-14 01:56 GMT AUD/USD breaks NY highs; targeting 1.0615
2012-09-13 23:23 GMT USD/JPY: BoJ eyeing 77.00 – V.Bednarik
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EURUSD : 1.30259 / 1.30262
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3267 | 1.3179 | 1.3086
1.2959 | 1.2874 | 1.2789
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The European Council meeting today might bring additional volatility to the markets. We expect that EURUSD decline today however medium term bias remains positive. Uptrend development might face next resistance level at 1.3086 (R1). Brake here is essential for the bullish market participants with next targets in focus at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3267 (R3). On the downturn, a consolidation might take the pair towards to eventual supports located at 1.2959 (S1), 1.2874 (S2) and 1.2789 (S3). Consumer Price Index release at 09:00 GMT is the next macroeconomic data in focus.
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GBPUSD : 1.61997 / 1.62006
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6347 | 1.6289 | 1.6235
1.6164 | 1.6106 | 1.6048
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
GBPUSD gained momentum and maintained uptrend development. Currently pair trades at the day high and we see potential for further appreciation towards to next resistance at 1.6235 (R1). Brake here would suggest next targets at 1.6289 (R2) and 1.6347 (R3). Though, our short –term outlook is negative and easing towards to our next support level at 1.6164 (S1) is possible. Clear break here is required for further depreciation with next intraday targets at 1.6106 (S2) and 1.6048 (S3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 77.636 / 77.642
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.09 | 77.92 | 77.74
77.51 | 77.35 | 77.17
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
USDJPY eased yesterday below the suggested support level at 77.69 and managed to reach our final target at 77.33. Market sentiment is bearish and brake below the support at 77.51 (S1) would suggest next target at 77.35 (S2). Price level at 77.17 (S3) is acting as final support level for the pair today. On the other hand, If the market manage to climb above the resistance level at 77.74 (R1) we expect next target to be achieved at 77.92 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 78.09 (R3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Brokers | ECN Forex Brokers | ECN Trading | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 17 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 17 2012
China forecasts adjusted lower; rate cutting cycle over - Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered has just published a note to clients revising the 2012 and 2013 forecasts GDP for China, now looking at 7.8% growth in 2013, and a better H2 than H1; "We lower our GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013 to 7.7% and 7.8%, respectively (from 8.1% and 8.7%), expecting clearer signs of the start of a moderate recovery to emerge in Q4-2012 and early 2013." Furthermore, they, now believe "the interest rate cutting cycle has ended and expect the next move to be up, in late 2013." Looking at the CNY, the bank thinks "it should remain stable against the USD in 2012, but appreciate mildly as the trade surplus revives in 2013-14." Standard Chartered forecasts USD-CNY at 6.19 at end-2013, 6.00 at end-2014.
Not many macro economic data EUR related will be released during London session ahead, starting with EU current account and Italian trade balance at 08:00 GMT, followed by EU labor costs 1 hour later. In the EZ sovereign debt front France will auction some short term maturities, while headlines coming from Greece or Spain could be making headlines any time during the session.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-17 08:00 GMT | E.M.U. Current Account s.a (Jul)
2012-09-17 08:00 GMT | E.M.U. Trade Balance s.a. (Jul)
2012-09-17 12:30 GMT | Canada. Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities (Jul)
2012-09-17 12:30 GMT | United States. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-17 04:37 GMT | EUR/USD unchanged above 1.31
2012-09-17 04:09 GMT | AUD/USD bias bearish - NAB
2012-09-17 02:16 GMT | GBP/JPY pulls back below 127.00
2012-09-17 01:53 GMT | Rebound in USD/JPY favoured - TDS
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EURUSD : 1.31301 / 1.31307
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3355 | 1.3267 | 1.3179
1.3085 | 1.2995 | 1.2903
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Last week was totally positive for EUR. After the FOMC has announced unlimited purchases of MBS (Mortgage-backed Securities) at a pace of $40 billion per month and QE3 announcement, EURUSD rose to the new highs. Today we expect slow trading session ahead. Our next resistance level is placed above the fresh high at 1.3179 (R1), violation here might expose next targets at 1.3267 (R2) and 1.3355 (R3) if the uptrend remains in power. Correction is possible below the next support level, placed at 1.3085 (S1). Further decline below it might test next targets at 1.2995 (S2) and 1.2903 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.62260 / 1.62271
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6347 | 1.6301 | 1.6255
1.6195 | 1.6145 | 1.6096
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
GBPUSD currently deviates from its initial uptrend formation and we expect low volatility today. If the pair can breach the key resistance at 1.6255 (R1), we suggest next targets at 1.6301 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by last resistance at 1.6347 (R3) intraday. From the other side, loss of next support at 1.6195 (S1) might encourage executing of protective orders and drive market price towards to the next targets at 1.6145 (S2) and 1.6096 (S3).
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USDJPY : 78.299 / 78.302
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.81 | 78.64 | 78.47
78.14 | 77.96 | 77.78
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Market stabilized after the Friday’s gains and we expect further consolidation development later on today as main scenario. Next support could be found at 78.14 (S1), clearance here is required to attack lower targets at 77.96 (S2) and 77.78 (S3). From the other side, if the pair manages to overcome the 78.47 (R1) level, we might see further appreciation towards to next targets at 78.64 (R2) and 78.81 (R3) in perspective.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Platform | Forex Broker Reviews | Online Forex Broker | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 18 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 18 2012
RBA minutes - Bias still to the downside
The RBA's minutes for this month's 4 Sep meeting is out, with plenty of downbeat commentary regarding the worsening outlook for Australia due to global and Chinese growth concerns, acknowledging prospects are now more uncertain. RBA added there is still scope to reduce the benchmark interest rate should outlook worsen significantly. The extent of RBA concern surrounding China appears to have worsened, while the potential for an October rate cut is very much on the cards. According to RBA, previous rate cuts are still working through economy.
London session ahead will only have a single risk event for the European morning coming out EUR related, but a key one, as German ZEW economic sentiment is, due at 09:00 GMT, which usually implies volatility. The UK will publish CPI figures at 08:30 GMT.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-18 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Core Consumer Price Index (Aug)
2012-09-18 09:00 GMT | Germany. ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Sep)
2012-09-18 12:00 GMT | United States. Fed's Evans Speech
2012-09-18 12:30 GMT | United States. Current Account (Q2)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-18 04:39 GMT | GBP/USD flat around 1.6245 ahead of UK CPI data
2012-09-18 04:35 GMT | EUR/USD awaits ZEW around 1.31
2012-09-18 03:59 GMT | USD/JPY stalls below 79.00 ahead of BoJ
2012-09-18 04:14 GMT | NZD/USD gently bid above 0.8250
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EURUSD : 1.31018 / 1.31021
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3355 | 1.3267 | 1.3179
1.3085 | 1.2995 | 1.2903
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
EURUSD remains under the sideways direction and we leave all ours support and resistance at the same levels as yesterday. Upside direction is limited by the next resistance level at 1.3179 (R1), brake here would enable higher target at 1.3267 (R2). Sufficient momentum on the upside direction might expose last target at 1.3355 (R3) in potential. On the downturn, clear brake of support level at 1.3085 (S1) would enable target at 1.2995 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support level at 1.2903 (S3). In focus the Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment release at 09:00 GMT.
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GBPUSD : 1.62435 / 1.62444
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6392 | 1.6347 | 1.6301
1.6212 | 1.6165 | 1.6119
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
BOE Inflation Letter might be a major market driver today for GBP however next important data release expected at 08:30 GMT - Core Consumer Price Index (Aug). GBPUSD penetrated above the suggested resistance level at 1.6255 yesterday but failed to establish positive tone. A further increase will then bring focus to the next resistance levels at 1.6301 (R1) and 1.6347 (R2). Final resistance can be found at 1.6392 (R3) level later on today. Next support level holds at 1.6212 (S1), brake below it would suggest next target at 1.6165 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited to 1.6119 (S3).
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USDJPY : 78.648 / 78.654
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.42 | 79.16 | 78.92
78.47 | 78.21 | 77.95
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
USDJPY climbed yesterday above the suggested resistance level at 78.47 and hit our target at 78.81. Next resistance is spotted at 78.92 (R1), brake here might expose next target at 79.16 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting 79.42 (R3). Our now bullish short term outlook will remain in place while USDJPY trades above the support at 78.47 (S1). A downside move below it might retest our next targets at 78.21 (S2) and 77.95 (S3) in potential.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trading| Forex Rates | Forex Market | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 19 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 19 2012
BOJ eases more than expected
The BOJ left the overnight call rate range unchanged between 0.0% and 0.1%. Amid much anticipated expectations of the BoJ following the Fed and ECB with further easing, the bank decided to increase the APP program by 10 trillion yen. The increase in the size corresponds to additional increases of treasury disccount bills by 5trillion yen and purchases in JGBs by another 5 trillion. BOJ keeps monthly JGB purchases at 1.8 trillion yen. As John Noonan, Head of IFR Markets, notes: "BOJ has eased a bit more than most were expecting. Market likes it and USD/JPY testing 79.00 level from 78.70 before announcment."
Lack of macro economic EUR related data for the London session ahead will be the news, with only ECB Governing Council 2 day Meeting starting today, while in the sovereign debt auctions front Germany will sell up to € 5B in 2 year federal notes, and Portugal trying to sell up to € 1.75 in short term T-bills at 09:30 GMT. Portugal 10 year bonds reached past week record 1 ½ year-lows around 8% coming from as high as 17% from Feb 2012, last at 8.72%, while Germany is dealing with 4-month highs touched on Monday at 1.74%, last at 1.65%.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-19 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2012-09-19 09:00 GMT | Switzerland. ZEW Survey - Expectations (Sep)
2012-09-19 14:00 GMT | United States. Existing Home Sales Change (Aug)
2012-09-19 22:45 GMT | New Zealand. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-19 04:48 GMT | GBP/JPY, blue sky until 130.00?
2012-09-19 04:14 GMT | EUR/USD spikes after BoJ
2012-09-19 04:03 GMT | JPY weakens across the board post-BoJ
2012-09-19 02:43 GMT | AUD/JPY peels back below 82.00
EURUSD : 1.30706 / 1.30711
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3227 | 1.3172 | 1.3116
1.2995 | 1.2941 | 1.2888
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
EURUSD penetrated below the suggested support level at 1.3085 yesterday but failed to go much lower and reach any of our targets. Medium term bias remains positive and today we expect further appreciation if it manage to overcome next resistance level at 1.3116 (R1). Strengthening above it might open way towards to next targets at 1.3172 (R2) and 1.3227 (R3). Current retracement formation might face next support levels at 1.2995 (S1), 1.2941 and 1.2888 (S3) in potential. ZEW Survey - Expectations from Switzerland is the next macroeconomic data release in focus at 09:00 GMT.
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GBPUSD 1.62525 / 1.62534
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6348 | 1.6308 | 1.6273
1.6218 | 1.6181 | 1.6144
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The GBPUSD trades in a sideways channel between our next support level at 1.6218 (S1) and resistance at 1.6273 (R1). A break in either direction might determine the trading bias for the medium term perspective. Bank of England Minutes at 08:30 GMT might provide sufficient impulse for the market move. Penetration above the 1.6273 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.6308 (R2) and 1.6348 (R3) in potential. On the other side, loss of 1.6218 (S1) would enable targets at 1.6181 (S2) and 1.6144 (S3). We suggest waiting for a clear directional signal prior taking any positions
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USDJPY : 79.164 / 79.167
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.84 | 79.63 | 79.42
79.93 | 78.72 | 78.51
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
After the BoJ Interest Rate Decision stays unchanged at 0.1%, USDJPY gained momentum and reached our target at 79.17 today. Technically, current bullish market sentiment will remain in place while USDJPY trades above the support level at 79.93 (S1). Our upwards targets locates at 79.42 (R1), 79.63 (R2) and 79.84 (R3) in potential. Conversely, decline below the suggested support level at 79.93 (S1) might initiate protective orders execution and expose next targets at 78.72 (S2) and 78.51 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Rate | Forex News | ECN Forex Broker | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 20 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 20 2012
HSBC Manufacturing PMI still in contraction at 47.8
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI registered a 2-month high of 47.8 in September from 47.6 in August, Markit Economics reported Thursday. This reading signals that the manufacturing sector in China remains in contraction (above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction).
For the London session ahead the Spanish sovereign 10 year bond auction will take center stage, as yields have been below 6% for last few days, and previous auction reached a 6.65% final yield. France will also sell up to € 10B in different maturities starting at 08:50 GMT. In the macro data EUR related front Germany will release its PPI figures at 06:00 GMT, followed by French PMIs at 06:58 GMT, German PMIs at 07:28 GMT, Netherlands consumer confidence and unemployment 2 minutes later, EU PMIs at 07:58 GMT, and Italian industrial orders 2 minutes later.
Read More
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-20 07:28 GMT | Germany. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep) Preliminar
2012-09-20 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)
2012-09-20 12:30 GMT | United States. Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 15)
2012-09-20 14:00 GMT | United States. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Sep)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-20 04:35 GMT | EUR/JPY moves downhill, regional bourses deep in red
2012-09-20 04:31 GMT | EUR/USD holding above 1.30
2012-09-20 03:22 GMT | AUD/JPY pressured, Asian stocks weigh
2012-09-20 00:37 GMT | USD/JPY: expect slide to continue below 78.20 – V.Bednarik
EURUSD : 1.30031 / 1.30036
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3173 |1.3131 | 1.3085
1.2298 |1.2945 |1.2900
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Today we expect increase of volatility due to the many macroeconomic data releases. The Germany market Manufacturing PMI release at 07:28 GMT is the next news in focus for Eurozone. Local high, formed yesterday at 1.3085 (R1) is acts now as next immediate resistance level today. Brake here is required to enable stronger market action, targeting 1.3131 (R2) and 1.3173 (R3). At the moment instrument is moving towards to our next support level at 1.2298 (S1). If it breaks below it, we expect further downgrade towards to next targets at 1.2945 (S2) and 1.2900 (S3).
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GBPUSD : 1.62029 / 1.62040
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6311 | 1.6274 | 1.6239
1.6181 | 1.6144 | 1.6109
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Decline into the negative territory yesterday initiated selling pressure and GBPUSD dropped below the suggested support level at 1.6218. Technically, pair is set for new targets achievement. On the upside, next resistance locates above the today’s high at 1.6239 (R1). Break here would suggest next target at 1.6274 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.6311 (R3). However, successful retest of our next support level at 1.6181 (S1) would suggest a pullback expansion towards to targets at 1.6144 (S2) and 1.6109 (S3). In focus UK Retail Sales for August at 08:30.
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USDJPY : 78.113 / 78.118
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.01 | 78.73 | 78.46
77.88 | 77.62 | 77.37
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The pair is under the process of recovering. Our bearish medium term outlook will remain in place while USDJPY trades below the resistance at 78.46 (R1). Break here might change market structure and determine medium term uptrend development. In such scenario we would suggest next targets at 78.73 (R2) and 79.01 (R3). Though, today we expect that the pair continues to extend its bearish pressure and face next support level at 77.88 (S1). Break here is required to extend easing towards to 77.62 (S2) and 77.37 (S3) in perspective.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Charts | Forex Exchange | ECN Forex Online | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 21 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 21 2012
EU and Spanish authorities working on bailout program - FT
EU authorities are presumably, according to FT reporters Peter Spiegel and Miles Johnson, working behind closed doors on a an aid package to Spain as well as preparing for an open-ended bond purchases program by the ECB. Brussels is reportedly helping Madrid to tweak an economic reform plan thought to be announced next week, the FT reports. "According to officials involved in the discussions, talks between the Spanish government and the European Commission are focusing on measures that would be demanded by international lenders as part of a new rescue programme, ensuring they are in place before a bailout is formally requested. The plan will focus on structural reforms to the Spanish economy."
London session ahead will lack any major risk event related to EUR, including sovereign debt auctions, as usual on Fridays, whit EZ periphery troubled countries yields at more reasonable levels, with Spanish 10y at 5.87%.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-21 07:30 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Sep 21)
2012-09-21 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Public Sector Net Borrowing (Aug)
2012-09-21 12:30 GMT | Canada. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
2012-09-21 16:40 GMT | United States. Fed's Lockhart speech
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-21 03:32 GMT | AUD/USD bid above 1.0450, Asian stocks support
2012-09-21 02:46 GMT | EUR/USD should see larger correction - DailyFX
2012-09-21 02:38 GMT | AUD/JPY limited below 82.00
2012-09-21 00:57 GMT | USD/JPY slightly boosted, ticks above 78.30
EURUSD : 1.29865 / 1.29867
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3078 | 1.3045 | 1.3012
1.2967 | 1.2932 | 1.2895
SUMMARY Up
TREND Up trend
MA10 Bullish
MA20 Bullish
STOCHASTIC Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Market continued correction yesterday and exposed our target at 1.2945. Main tendency remains positive and we expect further appreciation later on today. Main scenario: Potential of going higher is seen above the next resistance at 1.3012 (R1), surpassing of this level would suggest next targets at 1.3045 (R2) and 1.3078 (R3). Alternative scenario: If it fail to go higher, we might see further retracement development below the support at 1.2967 (S1) with next target in focus at 1.2932 (S2). Final target locates at 1.2895 (S3).
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GBPUSD : 1.62542 / 1.62551
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6347 | 1.6311 | 1.6276
1.6232 | 1.6197 | 1.6163
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Currently Instrument appreciates by 0.3% and looks set for further gains later on today. On the slightly longer term formation of the correction is reasonable.Main scenario: Key resistance level locates at 1.6276 (R1), break here is required for uptrend formation targeting 1.6311 (R2) and 1.6347 (R3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Development of the pull back is possible below the next support level at 1.6232 (S1). A break here would suggest next target at 1.6197 (S2) and any further fall would then be targeting 1.6163 (S3).
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USDJPY : 78.161 / 78.163
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.71 | 78.54 | 78.38
78.01 | 77.85 | 77.69
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Instrument stabilized after the previous day’s losses and trades in a narrow channel without priority in direction on the hourly chart. In such situation we suggest waiting for a clear break out of important levels prior taking any positions. Main scenario: While medium term bias is negative we expect the break of next support level at 78.01 (S1) first. Next targets locates at 77.85 (S2) and 77.69 (S3) Alternative scenario: Possibility of the USDJPY strengthening is seen above the resistance at 78.38 (R1), targeting resistances at 78.54 (R2) and 78.71 (R3) in potential.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 24 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 24 2012
Will the RBA cut rates in Sept? - NAB
The RBA 2 October rate decision has many media commentators expecting a rate cut and the market. NAB: "The Minutes from September were softer than the post Board Statement when they added the line that 'The current assessment of the inflation outlook continued to provide scope to adjust policy in response to any significant deterioration in the outlook for growth.”' But we have not seen a 'significant deterioration in the outlook for growth' since early September. At this stage we'd say a cut is less a 50% chance."
London session ahead will bring all kinds of talks related to EZ debt crisis as Greece is urged by Troika to reduce budgets even more, Spain will release plenty of key data on coming Friday, and rumors on ESM to be leveraged up to € 2 Trillion make the rounds. In the economic agenda most important and almost only data to be released will be German IFO business climate at 08:00 GMT although the Netherlands final GDP will also be published 30 minutes earlier. European Parliament Committee hearing on Libor scandal will also take place today.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-24 06:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Nationwide Housing Prices (Aug)
2012-09-24 08:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Business Climate (Sep)
2012-09-24 12:30 GMT | United States. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug)
2012-09-24 14:30 GMT | United States. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Sep)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-24 04:20 GMT | EUR/USD slips below 1.2950
2012-09-24 04:07 GMT | USD/JPY rally expected to resume – H.E.Wave
2012-09-24 03:50 GMT | AUD/NZD above 1.26 off fresh 5-month lows
2012-09-24 03:07 GMT | NZD/USD under pressure; Regional bourses weigh
EURUSD : 1.29472 / 1.29476
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3045 | 1.3012 | 1.2979
1.2927 | 1.2895 | 1.2860
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Instrument trades below the moving averages and we expect the pair to extend its losses later on today. Main scenario: Without significant economic news announcement, further consolidation looks reasonable today. The price progress below the next support level at 1.2927 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.2895 (S2) and 1.2860 (S3). Alternative scenario: The upside movement is limited by next resistance level at 1.2979 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 1.3012 (R2) and any further gain would then be limited by last resistance at 1.3045 (R3).
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GBPUSD : 1.62171 / 1.62182
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6295 | 1.6245 | 1.6234
1.6197 | 1.6169 | 1.6141
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: GBPUSD trades in negative tone on the short term perspective however medium term bias remains positive. Main scenario: Our next targets for current retracement formation locates at 1.6197 (S1), break here is required to put focus on the next target at 1.6169 (S2). If the market gains momentum we suggest last support at 1.6141 (S3). Alternative scenario: Next resistance level is placed at 1.6234 (R1). Brake here might eventually activate bulls pressure and enable targets at 1.6245 (R2) and 1.6295 (R3).
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USDJPY : 78.043 / 78.047
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.47 | 78.33 | 78.18
78.00 | 77.85 | 77.69
SUMMARY : Sideway
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Neutral hourly studies suggest further consolidation development. We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however market is set for new targets achievement. Main scenario: If the price manage to stay below the next resistance at 78.18 (R1), we expect the see retest of our support at 78.00 (S1). Break below that level would suggest next targets at 77.85 (S2) and 77.69 (S3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Break above the 78.18 (R1)would enable higher target at 78.33 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by 78.47 (R3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Signals | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trade | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 25 2012
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 25 2012
RBA Financial Stability Review: Cautiously upbeat on the economy
According to the RBA Financial Stability Review, Australian households remain well positioned to pay back their debts. Looking at business appetite for debt, the central bank expects it to recover while reaffirming that corporate balance sheets are in good shape. The RBA commented that IMF tests indicate banks are likely to withstand severe shocks, although they remain strong to cope with any potential EZ shock, which they expect is likely to remain core risk to the global financial system. RBA warned that the decrease in profits by banks may promote unwanted riskier lending. RBA is confident that modest employment growth will continue, according to latest survey observations.
Busy day ahead for the London session in the sovereign debt auctions front, with Italy selling zero coupon bonds and the Netherlands up to € 2.5B worth of 20 year bonds, while Spain will try to sell 3 and 6 month bills. Italy's 10 year bond yields have been around 5% for current week while Spain's one have been below 6%, around multi-week lows.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-25 12:30 GMT | Canada. Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
2012-09-25 13:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. ECB President Draghi's Speech
2012-09-25 14:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Confidence (Sep)
2012-09-25 17:30 GMT | United States. Treasury's Geithner Speech
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-25 04:43 GMT | GBP/USD still sideways below 1.6300
2012-09-25 02:31 GMT | AUD/USD snaps higher post China data
2012-09-25 01:26 GMT | Scenarios for EUR/USD to target 1.25 in Q4 - JPMorgan
2012-09-25 00:51 GMT | Has USD/JPY found temporal bottom?
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EURUSD : 1.29362 / 1.29368
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3013 | 1.2984 | 1.2956
1.2923 | 1.2891 | 1.2860
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: EURUSD formed retracement formation yesterday, turning intraday bias to the negative side however market sentiment remains positive on the medium term perspective. ECB President Draghi's Speech In focus today. Main scenario: Further easing might initiate protective orders execution and drive market price below the next support level at 1.2923 (S1). Next expected targets for locates at 1.2891 (S2) and 1.2860 (S3). Alternative scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.2956 (R1), clearance here would open way for strengthening towards to next targets at 1.2984 (R2) and 1.3013 (R3).
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GBPUSD : 1.62254 / 1.62266
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6295 | 1.6270 | 1.6242
1.6212 | 1.6185 | 1.6157
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: The pair continues to extend its weakness on the short term perspective. We expect the pair to remain on a gradual downtrend formation today. Main scenario: Our 20 sma at 1.6212 (S1) acts as next support level. Below here opens the way for a return to 1.6185 (S2) price level. Potential is seen to reach final target at 1.6157 (S3) in perspective. Alternative scenario: Risk of upside penetration is seen above the next resistance at 1.6242(R1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 1.6270 (R2) and 1.6295 (R3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 77.790 / 77.796
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.20 | 78.06 | 77.91
77.73 | 77.59 | 77.44
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Pair has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe however pull back formation is possible. Today’s trading session has set up negative sentiment with instrument depreciation to -0.12% from its opening price. Main scenario: If instrument holds its momentum, we expect to see penetration below the next support at 77.73 (S1). In such scenario we suggest our next targets to be placed at 77.59 (S2) and 77.44 (S3). Alternative scenario: Our 20 sma might be considered as dynamic resistance for the instrument. Successful attack to the 77.91 (R1) price level might encourage correction formation with next targets in focus at 78.06 (R2) and 78.20 (R3)
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Brokers | Forex Converter | Forex Expert Advisors | FXCC )