BinaryOptionStrategy Analysis - page 27
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The Yen Rises
Then yen advanced against most of its peers as market participants run to buy safe haven currencies after the Chinese trade data disappointed . The Japanese currency climbed 0.5% to 96.20 per euro, adding to the weekly gain of 1%. At the same time the low-yielding currency rose 0.4% to 78.24 per dollar. Eurozone’s common currency traded almost unchanged, at $1.2298, after declining as much as 0.5% earlier in the session. The euro is headed for a weekly loss of 0.7%.
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Binary Options Daily Analysis – S&P 500 Posts 6th Straight Gain Despite Weak Chinese
By BinaryOptionStrategy.com
Equities
Asian markets declined on Friday, ending a 4-day winning streak, pressured by weak Chinese data. The Shanghai Composite slipped .2% to 2169, as exports grew by just 1%, sharply below forecasts for an 8.6% gain. The Hang Seng fell .7% to 20136, the Nikkei slumped 1% to 8891, and the ASX 200 sank .7% to 4277. Bucking the trend, Korea’s Kospi rose .3%, as LG Display rallied 3%, thanks to an analyst upgrade.
European markets eased as well, taking a break from the recent rally. The CAC40 dropped .6% to 3435, the DAX declined .3% to 6945, and the FTSE eased .1% to 5847.
In the US, the leading indexes rose modestly, and the S&P 500 clinched its 6th straight gain, edging up .2% to 1406. The Dow advanced 43 points to 13208, and the Nasdaq inched up .1% to 3021. The VIX fell 3.1% to 14.81, a confirmation of investor calmness.
Yahoo tumbled 5.4% amid reports that the company will not distribute the gains from a deal with Alibaba to shareholders.
Treasuries and Commodities
10-year notes gained 9/32 to yield 1.66%, and 30-year notes climbed 12/32 to yield 2.75%.
In energy, natural gas tumbled 5.9% to 2.77, crude oil slipped .5% to 92.87, and gasoline ticked up .1% to 3.0039.
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Gold rose .2% to 1619.70, copper slumped 1% to 3.3935, and silver eased .1% to 28.062
Corn fell 1.8% to 809.25, and wheat sank 3% to 885.25.
Currencies
The Dollar settled mixed against global currencies, as the pairs traded in fairly narrow ranges. The Euro declined .1% to 1.2290, the Pound climbed .3% to 1.5688, and the Yen rallied .4% to 78.28. The Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar both settled little changed.
Economic Outlook
US import prices unexpectedly declined .6% last month, versus forecasts for a .1% gain. The Federal budget deficit increased by $69.6 billion, significantly below forecasts for $103 billion increase.
No major economic reports are due on Monday. Earnings are expected from Groupon and Sysco.
Binary Options Weekly Report (August 6 – August 10)
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MARKETS
US equities posted gains on the week with the S&P managing a 1% rally to finish at 1405.9 as technician are looking at the market internals which suggest this move is not convincing for a real bulls case, as the advance decline line was lower, volume was light (S&P Futures volume 20% below 4 week average) and a total Put/Call ratio of 1.02 suggests bulls and bears are almost even. With volatility continuing to sink with the CBOE VIX at 14.74 down another 5.75% on the week as markets continue to add risk. Markets are setting themselves up for some type of a break move from here. The DJIA was up 0.85% at 13,208 close for the week and equity moves favored risk with the NASDAQ posting a 1.75% move higher at 2,723 close for the week.
FOREX
Yet again the Euro is still centre stage as it closed the week down 0.8% at 1.2288 and with commodity currency moves also fading somewhat as AUDUSD up 0.1% at 1.0575 and classic carry trades like EURJPY down 1% at 96.20 seem to be decoupling somewhat from other risk assets. The Dollar index closed up 0.22% at 82.63 on the week.
COMMODITIES
Crude saw larger drawdown on oil inventories of -3.7m barrels versus analyst forecast of -0.6m draw Brent rally 4.4% to 113.54 as the Sept contract rolls to Oct. WTI less obvious move up 2.2% at 93.40. OPEC suggesting cuts to demand in 2013, coupled with China slowing and weaker trade data still didn’t slow the bigger moves. RBOB unleaded gasoline futures closed up 3.1% at 3.0200. Natural Gas plunged 4.5% at 2.783 on the September 2012 contract this is the third weekly decline as forecast for cooler weather in New York are reported through. Heating Oil finished up 3.5% to 3.031 on the week. Gold finished the week up 1% at USD$1623.10 /oz in New York.
EQUTIES
RIMM up 18.6% on the week and gained 6.3% on Friday as a California judge overturned a jury finding that the BlackBerry maker had infringed on others patents. Talk that IBM maybe looking at RIMM’s enterprise services business.
YAHOO down 5.1% as the company warned that it may not return all of the cash it gets from selling its stake in Alibaba to shareholders.
Fusion-io Inc. up 38% on the week to $26.86 reported better-than-expected results for its 4th Qtr. The company also said it expects 1st Qtr revenue to “modestly increase” over its 4th Qtr.
Monster Beverage plunged 18.7% on the week and 9.7% on Friday after missing earnings expectations by $0.02 and missing revenue forecasts by $3 million.
Economic news- Euro Sovereign Yields Fall as Markets Look to Central Banks for Sti
ECONOMIC NEWS
The yields on Italian debt have fallen over the last week, particularly in the short end. Yields on Spanish 10 years have managed to stay under the all important 7.00% mark which has been considered to be the point of no return. Comments from the ECB last week have supported the move into riskier assets. Whilst most of the economic data out is tending to be increasingly negative.
Most of the data out of China is showing signs of continued weakness and has seemed to miss market forecasts. Namely China is continuing to see weak trade data in the form of its Trade balance at 25.1bn vs a market forecast of 35.1bn and CPI has cooled off to only be 1.8%.
Whilst economic news out of US was a little light on the week the main focus has been markets looking to September as the possible time for further QE.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday: Nothing to note Data wise
Tuesday: German ZEW, EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment, EUR Flash GDP, German Prelim GDP, US Core Retail Sales, US PPI, US Retail Sales
Wednesday: US Core CPI, Empire State Manufacturing Index, US TIC flows, US IP, Crude Inventories
Thursday: EUR CPI, US Building Permits, US Unemployment Claims, US Housing Starts, US Philly Fed
Friday: German PPI, EUR Current Account, US Prelim Unvi of Mich Consumer Sentiment
Subdued Trading Sees Asian Stocks Rise
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14th August
In a low volume lackluster trading session, Asian stocks rose on the release of the Bank of Japan minutes showing policy makers are considering steps to boost the economy, and before U.S. retail sales data is released and is expected to signal that demand is recovering in the US economy.
Stocks throughout Asia gained after minutes of the Bank of Japan’s last meeting signaled policy members are considering ways to expand stimulus and that it shouldn’t rule out any options in advance. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average increased 0.2% with volume on the measure 20 percent below the 30-day average as Japan yesterday entered a week long O-bon period, a time where many Japanese companies are closed for business.
Also rising was South Korea’s Kospi Index, rising 0.8%, Australia’s S&P/AS 200 Index which gained 0.29% and Hong Kongs Hang Seng index which rose 0.25%.
The subdued trading could be seen in most markets with very little movement in both the currency and commodity markets. The US dollar index which tracks the greenback against a basket of 6 weighted currencies was down 0.03%, valued at 82.45. The USD was down against most major currencies with the EUR/USD up 0.11%, the GBP/USF up 0.03% but the USD/JPY was up 0.13%, primarily on the BoJ minutes release. Gold and Silver both gained on the weakened US Dollar with Gold increasing 0.14%, trading at 1612.85 and Silver up 0.13%, trading at 27.803.
Attention swung back to Greece yesterday as Greece revealed its economy contracted by 6.2% in the second quarter of the year compared with the same period a year earlier. This was a slight improvement on the 6.5% annual pace of contraction recorded in the first quarter and beat other forecasters, including Greece’s Prime Minister, Antonis Samaras, who expected the economy to shrink by 7%.
Today
After a quiet day yesterday, there is a veritable bounty of economic data being released today which should keep the binary options trader busy. GDP figures are out in France and Germany in the morning, along with Spanish, French and British CPI data. Then after German economic sentiment is released – a key indicator of the economic outlook, attention turns to the US where retail sales figures are released. Sales at U.S. retailers most likely increased July for the first time in 4 months, data from the Commerce Department may show today which would mean a rising USD.
Binary Options Daily Analysis – Japan’s GDP Disappoints, Commodities Slide
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Equities
Asian markets traded mostly lower on Monday, as GDP data from Japan fell short of forecasts, growing by a slim .3%. The Nikkei eased .1% to 8885, the Kospi slumped .7% to 1932, and the ASX 200 edged up .1% to 4283. China’s Shanghai Composite tumbled 1.5% to 2136, as brokerages tumbled on earnings concerns, and the hang Seng declined .3% to 20081.
Shanghai Composite Drops 1.5%
In Europe, the major indexes declined as well. The DAX sank .5% to 6910, the while the FSTE and CAC40 both slipped .3%.
US stocks settled mostly lower, but the losses were minor. The Dow declined 39 points to 13169, the S&P 500 eased .1% to 1404, and the Nasdaq inched up 2 points to 3023.
Google shares jumped 2.8% to 660.01 after announcing it would cut 20% of Motorola Mobility’s workforce, which it purchased in May.
Treasuries and Commodities
Bonds settled little changed, with 10-year notes down 1/32 to yield 1.66%, and 30-year notes flat to yield 2.75%.
Natural gas fell another 1.1% to 2.741, gasoline declined .4% to 2.9928, and crude oil eased .1% to 92.79.
Copper and silver both sank 1.2% to 3.353 and 27.73 respectively, while gold shed .7% to 1609.10.
Corn slumped 2.1%, wheat tumbled 3.2%, and soybeans skidded 2.6% as agricultural futures sold off.
Currencies
The Euro advanced .4% to 1.2337, and the Swiss Franc moved in step, rising .4% to .9736. The Australian Dollar declined .5% to 1.0521, and the Canadian Dollar slipped .1% to .9925. The Pound settled little changed at 1.5684, and the Yen ticked down less than .1% to 78.33.
Economic Outlook
Tuesday’s reports will include PPI, retail sales, business inventories, and the TIPP economic optimism report.
Earnings are due from Bob Evans Farms, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Estee Lauder, Home Depot, JDS Uniphase, and Saks.
Binary Options Daily Analysis – Asia and Europe Rise, US Flat on German and French GD
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Equities
Asian markets rose on Tuesday, encouraged by upbeat economic data from France and Germany. The Nikkei advanced .5% to 8930, the Kospi rallied 1.3% to 1957, and the ASX 200 edged up .2% to 4292. In greater China, the Hang Seng climbed 1.1% to 20292, while the Shanghai Composite bounced .3% to 2143 following Monday’s steep drop.
European markets experienced a similar gain. The DAX rallied .9% to 6974, the CAC40 gained .7% to 3450, and the FTSE rose .6% to 5865. France and German GDP were both slightly above forecasts, although both numbers were remarkably weak.
US stocks ended little changed, shrugging off upbeat retails sales data. The Dow inched up 3 points to 13172, the S&P 500 ended down a fraction of a point, and the Nasdaq eased .2% to 3017. The VIX surged 8.4% to 14.85, bouncing off of Monday’s 5-year low of 13.70.
Groupon shares plunged 27% to 5.51 after sales fell short of forecasts. The company issued a weak outlook, prompting an avalanche of analyst downgrades.
Groupon Continues to Tumble
Home Depot shares rallied 3.6% after beating forecasts and lifting its guidance.
Treasuries and Commodities
10-year notes fell 18/32 to yield 1.73%, and 30-year notes slumped 1 16/32 to yield 2.83%.
Natural gas bounced 3.9% to 2.836, as energy rose. Crude oil advanced .7% to 93.41, and gasoline gained .5% to 3.0042.
Gold skidded .7% to 1600, copper declined .2% to 3.348, and silver eased .1% to 27.735.
Currencies
The currency markets traded in tight ranges on Tuesday, ending little changed. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, and British Pound all settled less than .1% from their previous open. The Yen fell .5% to 78.73.
Economic Outlook
Retail sale rose .8% last month, beating forecasts of .4%. PPI rose .3%, in line with forecasts, although core PPI rose .4%, more than expected. Business inventories rose .1%, less than expected, and the TIPP economic optimism index unexpectedly fell to 45.6 from 47.0.
Wednesday’s reports will include CPI, the Empire State manufacturing index, industrial production, the NAHB housing market index, and weekly oil inventories.
Earnings are due from Abercrombie & Fitch, Agilent, Applied Materials, Cisco, Deere, NetApp, NetEase, Sina, and Staples.
USD Rises on Surprise Jump in Retail Sales
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15th August
The greenback was up against most major currencies in overnight trading as an unexpected rise in core retail sales. The U.S. Commerce Department reported that retail sales figured jumped 0.8% in July after a 0.7% decline in June, by far beating market expectations for a 0.3% increase. This was the first increase in four months. Lower fuel prices and moderate growth in employment helped towards a 0.8% monthly increase in retail and food services sales.
The numbers reported by the U.S. Commerce Department sparked hopes the Federal Reserve will probably stall on widely anticipated plans to stimulate the fragile US economy – the world’s largest economy – with monetary easing tools, weakening the greenback to stimulate growth.
Whilst markets applauded the retail figures, the economic recovery in the US remains delicate. Its economy increased at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the second 3 months of this year, slower than the 2% rate recorded at the start of the year. The total number of unemployed people stood at 12.8 million for last month and is about 8.3% of its working age population. The US economy has to generate 100,000 new jobs each and every month just to remain stagnant, according to figures from the Federal Reserve.
Gains in the USD were tempered a little by lower profit forecasts by a host of global companies but still the USD posted a 0.05% increase against the JPY, a 0.02% increase against the GBP and a 0.10% increase against the AUD.
Yesterday stocks in Europe increased on the news that the economy of the 17 member state eurozone contracted 0.2% in the 3 months from April to June compared with the zero growth in the previous quarter. Europe’s largest economy, Germany increased by 0.3% in the second quarter, aided by increases in exports and domestic consumption. France’s economy recorded zero growth in the period, beating expectations, but Portugal’s GDP contracted 1.2%, Cyprus posted a 0.8% contraction and Italy shrank 0.7%.
Today
After a volatile days trading yesterday, today much of the focus will be on first the UK, with key unemployment figures released. This is followed by the focus switching to the US where key CPI figures, industrial production and manufacturing index figures are all released. This should be a busy day for the GBP/USD, currently 1.5674, with supports seen at 1.5675/57 and then at 1.5578, whilst resistance levels are at 1.5730/66 and then at 1.5768.
Chinese Stimulus Talk Boosts Stocks
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16th August
Asian stocks increased following on from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao indicating that the cooling inflation rates give China – the world’s second largest economy – the room to roll out economic stimulus measures to encourage stronger growth.
Slowing growth rates in China have raised fears that the global economy may be weakening and news that China may implement monetary policy measures sent stocks rising, as investors enthusiastically turned away from U.S. markets and the many mixed signals it has been giving off recently.
China’s gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 7.6% during the April to June period which may be healthy compared to many developed Western economies, however it was the slowest rate of expansion seen for China in three years. Figures released earlier in August showed sharp declines in export and import expansion during the month of July, indicating that external and internal demands were both slowing.
Two of China’s biggest markets, the eurozone and the US, continue to remain weak, helping raise fears that China’s growth may slow even further in the near future, triggering calls for monetary easing policy.
Asian trading overnight saw Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gain 0.18%, Australia’s S&P/ASX200 rise 0.65%, whilst Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index gained 1.71%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures closed up 0.18% whilst the S&P 500 futures closed up 0.19%.
Today
Later Today, binary traders will look towards the US for increased volatility as the U.S. is to publish figures on building permits and housing starts, key gauges for the construction and housing sectors. Also weekly government data on unemployment claims are released and a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area. Expect a busy day of volatility and trading for the greenback as well as European stock futures indicating a higher opening