GIGFX Daily Economic Analysis - page 2
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Thursday 20-01-2011 Technical Analysis Report
EUR/USD
Yesterday trades saw more rising for the European currency against the U.S dollar whereas, by reaching the level 1.3538 the pair registered the 5 weeks highest price, this rising was after breaking the resistance level 1.3457 that represents the point B of the harmonic pattern AB=CD. After reaching the level 1.3538, the pair formed a top at which it was pushed declining to re-test the nearest support levels. A bottom has been formed during the last intraday trades between the level 1.3457 and the support level 1.3425 at which the price coincided with the bullish trend line that matches the point A with the point C. it is expected during the upcoming trades that the pair will use this bottom to rise again targeting to re-test the level 1.3538 which with its breaking up the pair will target to reach the resistance level 1.3589 that represents 161.8% Fibonacci continuous level for the rib BC. The target of this rising is to complete forming the rib CD which is expected to be finished at the area of the point D between the level 1.3802 that represents 261.8% Fibonacci continuous level for the rib BC and the level 1.3850. In order to reach this area, the pair should break the resistance levels 1.3589 and 1.3670 which represent Fibonacci's continuous levels for the rib BC.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the support level 1.3425.
Res: 1.3551 1.3629 1.3721
Pivot: 1.3459
Sup: 1.3381 1.3289 1.3211
GBP/USD
The bullish direction is still dominating the short and medium-terms move of the pair, the pair succeeded while rising to break the level 1.5930 at the beginning of this week trades to confirm the tendency of the pair to continue rising and expecting more rising during today's intraday levels, targeting the resistance level 1.6070 but under the condition of holding the support level 1.5930 but in case of breaking this level during today's intraday trades, the pair will push down in order to re-test the support level 1.5820.
The previous analysis is still remaining till now
Res: 1.6038 1.6083 1.6130
Pivot: 1.5991
Sup: 1.5946 1.5899 1.5854
USD/CHF
As it was expected yesterday, the pair succeeded to break the support level 38.2% Fibonacci correction level for the last bearish wave for the medium-term. this confirms the tendency of the pair to continue declining during today's intraday levels targeting the support level 0.9485 that represents 23.6% Fibonacci correction level and also represents 61.8% Fibonacci correction level for the last bearish wave for the short period but this vision is under the condition of holding the 0.9595 resistance level steady that held against the pair re-testing yesterday to confirm the strength of this expected scenario.
Res: 0.9623 0.9699 0.9751
Pivot: 0.9571
Sup: 0.9495 0.9443 0.9367
USD/CAD
The pair has succeeded during yesterday trades on breaking the resistance level 0.9933, this bullish move came after forming a bottom at the level 0.9887 and this bullish move has continued after breaking the mentioned resistance level till it reached the top boarder for the bearish channel for the medium-term, whereas the last intraday trades has seen the breaking of this top boarder up with a good close above it, breaking this boarder remains a strong sign on beginning forming a bullish correction direction but to confirm this direction; the resistance level 0.9976 must be broken which represents 38.2% Fibonacci retracement correction level for the bearish direction ( from 1.0207 to 0.9833 ), if this condition has been done the pair will continue rising to the targeted price area to get out of the bearish confined channel between the level 1.0100 and the level 1.0119 which represents 76.4% Fibonacci retracement correction level for the same mentioned bearish direction, in case of failing this rising condition; the pair will be pushed to trade below the top boarder for the bearish channel again reaching again the level 0.9887 which with breaking it down means a further drop till the level 0.9833.
Res: 0.9984 1.0013 1.0062
Pivot: 0.9935
Sup: 0.9906 0.9857 0.9828
AUD/USD
The negative harmonic pattern Gartley has been completed by reaching the area D point which is confined between the level 1.0060 which represents 127% Fibonacci retracement continuous level for the BC rib and the level 1.0082 which represents 61.8% Fibonacci retracement correction level for the XA rib, whereas a top has formed at the mentioned area which coincides with the trend line that matches the B point and the D point, the pair has been pushed down from this formed top to retest the bullish trend line which matches the A point and the C point, whereas it is expected that this line will coincide with the support level 0.9909, if a bullish bottom formed at this area means rising the pair again to retest the D point area, but in case of breaking the support level 0.9909 with breaking the trend line, the pair will continue falling reaching the level 0.9850 declaring that the pair is able to continue forming the bearish directions for the medium-term.
Res: 1.0067 1.0128 1.0181
Pivot: 1.0014
Sup: 0.9953 0.9900 0.9839
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Tuseday 25-01-2011 Technical Analysis Report
EUR/USD
The Euro continued rising against the U.S dollar, forming the rib CD of the harmonic pattern AB=CD that was mentioned through the previous reports. Yesterday trades saw the pair success in breaking the resistance level 1.3624 then continued rising till reached the resistance level 1.3670 that represents 200% Fibonacci continuous level for the rib CD, the pair did not succeed to break this level up till now, so it is expected at the upcoming trades, the pair will try to break this level which with its breaking up the pair will continue rising to reach the D area that completes the harmonic pattern which is located between the level 1.3802 that represents 261.8% Fibonacci continuous level for the rib BC and the level 1.3850.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the support level 1.3589.
RES: 1.3701 1.3765 1.3846
PIVOT: 1.3630
SUP: 1.3556 1.3475 1.3411
GBP/USD
The bullish direction is still dominating the pair move for the short and medium periods, the move of the pair during the last two days since the trades of the last week ended and the beginning of this week trades was a sideways one, forming a continues pattern for the bullish direction (head and shoulders pattern). the pair also is in the forming stage of a harmonic pattern AB=CD and is moving in the last wave of this pattern (CD), these two patterns requires succeeding the pair to break the resistance level 1.6010 that still holding the pair till now.
So if the pair was able to break the resistance level 1.6010, it will target to reach the resistance level 1.6095 as the first target for this rising and to complete the harmonic pattern AB=CD, and in the case of the continuation of rising and breaking this level, it will target to reach the resistance level 1.6180 that represents the target of the formed pattern.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the support level 1.5885.
RES:1.6025 1.6064 1.6117
PIVOT: 1.5972
SUP: 1.5933 1.5880 1.5841
USD/CHF
In this chart, the pair formed a harmonic pattern (Gartley) where the possibility of forming this pattern raised after the price hit the resistance level 0.9658 that coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci correction level for the wave AB and reflected the pair down targeting the support level 0.9520 that represents the point B of the pattern.
It is expected that the pair will decline targeting the level of the point B and if the pair succeeded to break this level, formation the pattern will be confirmed and then the pair will target to reach the end of the wave CD that its target supposed to be at the level 0.9425 that coincides with 161.8% Fibonacci continuous level for the wave BC and also 76.4% Fibonacci correction level for the wave XA.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the resistance level 0.9685.
RES: 0.9585 0.9678 0.9735
PIVOT: 0.9528
SUP: 0.9435 0.9378 0.9285
USD/CAD
Yesterday's trades for the pair saw the retesting of the resistance level 0.9976 in which it didn't succeed on breaking it up forming a bearish top at this level which pushed the pair down to retest the support level 0.9905, through this movement which is between rising and falling it's noticed of existence the ( 1.2.3 ) pattern which shows the bearish direction that will be confirmed with breaking the support level 0.9905 which represents the ( 2 ) point, the pair will target the bearish move till the targeted price area which is between the support level 0.9860 and the support level 0.9833.
This expectation depends on the stability of the resistance level 0.9976.
RES: 0.9970 1.0007 1.0034
PIVOT: 0.9943
SUP: 0.9906 0.9879 0.9842
AUD/USD
As expected in yesterday report, the pair was able to break the resistance level 0.9909 to continue rising till it reached the resistance level 0.9975 which didn't sufficient by reaching this level during yesterday trades to continue rising achieving the highest price at the level 1.0019, So it's expected that this rise pushing will be continued during the next trades and for further confirmation for this bullish move the level 1.0019 must be broken and with breaking it up means a further rise till the resistance level 1.0082 which represents 61.8% Fibonacci retracement correction level for the bullish direction ( from 0.9803 to 1.0254 ).
This expectation depends on the stability of the support level 0.9909.
RES: 1.0039 1.0107 1.0195
PIVOT: 0.9951
SUP: 0.9882 0.9795 0.9727
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Wednesday 26-01-2011 Technical Analysis Report
EUR/USD
The Euro continued rising against the U.S dollar, forming the rib CD of the harmonic pattern AB=CD that was mentioned through the previous reports. Yesterday trades saw the pair success in breaking the resistance level 1.3624 then continued rising till reached the resistance level 1.3670 that represents 200% Fibonacci continuous level for the rib CD, the pair did not succeed to break this level up till now, so it is expected at the upcoming trades, the pair will try to break this level which with its breaking up the pair will continue rising to reach the D area that completes the harmonic pattern which is located between the level 1.3802 that represents 261.8% Fibonacci continuous level for the rib BC and the level 1.3850.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the support level 1.3589.
RES: 1.3701 1.3765 1.3846
PIVOT: 1.3630
SUP: 1.3556 1.3475 1.3411
GBP/USD
The bullish direction is still dominating the pair move for the short and medium periods, the move of the pair during the last two days since the trades of the last week ended and the beginning of this week trades was a sideways one, forming a continues pattern for the bullish direction (head and shoulders pattern). the pair also is in the forming stage of a harmonic pattern AB=CD and is moving in the last wave of this pattern (CD), these two patterns requires succeeding the pair to break the resistance level 1.6010 that still holding the pair till now.
So if the pair was able to break the resistance level 1.6010, it will target to reach the resistance level 1.6095 as the first target for this rising and to complete the harmonic pattern AB=CD, and in the case of the continuation of rising and breaking this level, it will target to reach the resistance level 1.6180 that represents the target of the formed pattern.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the support level 1.5885.
RES:1.6025 1.6064 1.6117
PIVOT: 1.5972
SUP: 1.5933 1.5880 1.5841
USD/CHF
In this chart, the pair formed a harmonic pattern (Gartley) where the possibility of forming this pattern raised after the price hit the resistance level 0.9658 that coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci correction level for the wave AB and reflected the pair down targeting the support level 0.9520 that represents the point B of the pattern.
It is expected that the pair will decline targeting the level of the point B and if the pair succeeded to break this level, formation the pattern will be confirmed and then the pair will target to reach the end of the wave CD that its target supposed to be at the level 0.9425 that coincides with 161.8% Fibonacci continuous level for the wave BC and also 76.4% Fibonacci correction level for the wave XA.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the resistance level 0.9685.
RES: 0.9585 0.9678 0.9735
PIVOT: 0.9528
SUP: 0.9435 0.9378 0.9285
USD/CAD
Yesterday's trades for the pair saw the retesting of the resistance level 0.9976 in which it didn't succeed on breaking it up forming a bearish top at this level which pushed the pair down to retest the support level 0.9905, through this movement which is between rising and falling it's noticed of existence the ( 1.2.3 ) pattern which shows the bearish direction that will be confirmed with breaking the support level 0.9905 which represents the ( 2 ) point, the pair will target the bearish move till the targeted price area which is between the support level 0.9860 and the support level 0.9833.
This expectation depends on the stability of the resistance level 0.9976.
RES: 0.9970 1.0007 1.0034
PIVOT: 0.9943
SUP: 0.9906 0.9879 0.9842
AUD/USD
As expected in yesterday report, the pair was able to break the resistance level 0.9909 to continue rising till it reached the resistance level 0.9975 which didn't sufficient by reaching this level during yesterday trades to continue rising achieving the highest price at the level 1.0019, So it's expected that this rise pushing will be continued during the next trades and for further confirmation for this bullish move the level 1.0019 must be broken and with breaking it up means a further rise till the resistance level 1.0082 which represents 61.8% Fibonacci retracement correction level for the bullish direction ( from 0.9803 to 1.0254 ).
This expectation depends on the stability of the support level 0.9909.
RES: 1.0039 1.0107 1.0195
PIVOT: 0.9951
SUP: 0.9882 0.9795 0.9727
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Monday 07-02-2011 Technical Analysis Report
EUR/USD
The last week trades saw a new declining for the European currency against the American dollar which started after the pair achieved the highest price in two months at the level 1.3861, it is noticed that the pair was able to break the support level 1.3628 which represents 23.6% Fibonacci correction level for the bullish direction (from 1.2874 to 1.3861) this breaking confirms that the pair is moving outside the short and medium-term bullish channel. all those signals confirms the tendency of the pair to continue forming a corrective bearish wave that will be confirmed with breaking down the support level 1.3570 then the pair will continue declining targeting the level 1.3484 which represents 38.2% Fibonacci correction level for the same mentioned bullish direction.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the resistance level 1.3680.
RES: 1.3663 1.3738 1.3798
PIVOT: 1.3603
SUP: 1.3528 1.3468 1.3939
GBP/USD
The bullish direction is still dominating the trades of the pair for medium and long periods whereas the pair declined at the beginning of this week trades in order to re-test the support level 1.6055 which declared its stability, once the pair hit that level it reflected up again with expectations of more rising in the light of a harmonic pattern (butterfly) which is still in the forming stage and now it is forming the last wave (CD) after breaking the level 1.6055, its re-testing and stability against the pair till now.
So that it is expected to continue rising during trading the pair above the level 1.6055 targeting the level 1.6260 as the first target of the intraday levels of today and tomorrow, if the pair succeeded to break this level up it means that the pair tends to continue rising in order to achieve the target of the pattern that is formed on the medium-term, this target is to reach the resistance area between the levels 1.6460 and 1.6545.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the support level 1.6055.
RES: 1.6170 1.6237 1.6304
PIVOT: 1.6103
SUP: 1.6036 1.5969 1.5902
USD/CHF
On the contrary of what was expected, the pair succeeded to achieve more consecutive gains by rising on the short-term and intraday levels whereas the pair succeeded to break the level 0.9500 which represents 38.2% Fibonacci correction level for the last short-term bearish wave to confirm the tendency of the pair to continue rising. now the pair is facing the level 0.9555 which represents 50% of the same mentioned levels, if the pair was able to hold steady above this level during the upcoming trades, it is sure that the pair will target the resistance level 0.9675 but under the condition of breaking the resistance level 0.9610 to confirm the tendency of the pair to continue rising during today's intraday trades.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the support level 0.9500.
RES: 0.9451 0.9489 0.9515
PIVOT: 0.9425
SUP: 0.9387 0.9361 0.9323
USD/CAD
The bearish direction is still dominating the pair for the medium and the short-terms so it is expected for the intraday levels that the pair will continue the bearish direction because the pair is in process of forming a harmonic pattern whereas the price is moving now within the last wave of the pattern which is CD which is expected for it to target the support level 0.9658 but to confirm this, the pair must break the support level 0.9826 which represents the B point.
This expectation depends on breaking and the stability of the lowest support level 0.9826 which represents the B point.
But if the pair is not able to break the support level 128.56 which represents the B point and hold below it, the pair will target the support level 1.0060 which represents the C point for the pattern.
RES: 0.9924 0.9976 1.0023
PIVOT: 0.9877
SUP: 0.9825 0.9778 0.9726
AUD/USD
After the pair formed a bullish top at the level 1.0194, it fell again retesting the nearest resistance support levels. the RSI index movement is found bearish through the bullish movement to build bullish tops which means that there is a negative divergence reflecting the bullish direction therefore the pair fell again retesting the nearest support levels, whereas it formed a bottom at the level 1.0102 which represents 23.6% Fibonacci retracement correction level for the bullish direction ( from 0.9803 to 1.0194 ) in case of continuing the next trades above this level it's expected to continuing forming the bullish direction which will be confirmed with breaking the level 1.0194 up, but if the pair is able to break the support level 1.0102 down it means that there is a further drop till the level 1.0045 which represents 38.2% Fibonacci retracement correction level for the same mentioned bullish direction.
RES: 1.0181 1.0234 1.0270
PIVOT: 1.0145
SUP: 1.0092 1.0056 1.000.000
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Tuseday 08-02-2011 Technical Analysis Report
EUR/USD
As it was expected through yesterday report, Euro continued declining against the American dollar whereas; the pair achieved the lowest price during yesterday trades at the level 1.3508 near to the level 1.3484 which represents 38.2% Fibonacci correction level for the bullish direction (from 1.2874 to 1.3508). Through forming the bearish direction that performed this declining, a bullish move for the stochastic index was noticed, this means the existence of a positive divergence that shifts the direction from downtrend to uptrend, so that the pair formed a bottom at the level 1.3508 and used it to push rising in order to re-test the nearest resistance levels. During the current trades the pair is in its way to test the resistance level 1.3680 and if the pair succeeded to break it up, it will continue rising targeting to reach the resistance level 1.3765.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the support level 1.3508.
RES: 1.3636 1.3690 1.3754
PIVOT: 1.3572
SUP: 1.3518 1.3454 1.3400
GBP/USD
The bullish direction is still dominating the trades of the pair for medium and long periods whereas the pair declined at the beginning of this week trades in order to re-test the support level 1.6055 which declared its stability, once the pair hit that level it reflected up again with expectations of more rising in the light of a harmonic pattern (butterfly) which is still in the forming stage and now it is forming the last wave (CD) after breaking the level 1.6055, its re-testing and stability against the pair till now.
So that it is expected to continue rising during trading the pair above the level 1.6055 targeting the level 1.6260 as the first target of the intraday levels, if the pair succeeded to break this level up it means that the pair tends to continue rising in order to achieve the target of the pattern that is formed on the medium-term, this target is to reach the resistance area between the levels 1.6460 and 1.6545.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the support level 1.6055.
Yesterday analysis is still remaining till now
RES: 1.6165 1.6222 1.6260
PIVOT: 1.6127
SUP: 1.6070 1.6032 1.5975
USD/CHF
The level 0.9555 could not be steady against the price action yesterday, now the pair is trading below this level; this shows the weakness of the bullish direction for the near-term and the intraday levels with expectations of more declining during today's trades as trading below the level 0.9555 targeting the support level 0.9500 as the first target of this declining wave then to the support level 0.9435.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the resistance level 0.9555.
RES: 0.9591 0.9628 0.9659
PIVOT: 0.9560
SUP: 0.9523 0.9492 0.9455
USD/CAD
The bearish direction is still dominating the pair for the medium and the short-terms, so it is expected that the intraday trades the pair will continue the bearish direction because the pair is still in process of forming a harmonic pattern whereas the price is moving now within the last wave of the pattern which is CD which is expected for it to target the support level 0.9658 but to confirm this, the pair must break the support level 0.9826 which represents the B point.
This expectation depends on breaking and the stability of the lowest support level 0.9826 which represents the B point.
But if the pair is not able to break the support level 128.56 which represents the B point and hold below it, the pair will target the support level 1.0060 which represents the C point for the pattern.
The previous analyze still remains till now
RES: 0.9925 0.9944 1.9979
PIVOT: 0.9890
SUP: 0.9871 0.9836 0.9817
AUD/USD
As noticed in the chart, the pair is in process of forming a harmonic pattern AB=CD whereas the ( BC ) rib came by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement correction level for the ( AB ) rib therefore it is expected that the ( CD ) will be completed at 161.8% Fibonacci retracement continuous level for the ( BC ) rip. if the resistance level 1.0194 that represents the ( B ) point is broken, the pair will continue rising to complete the remaining part of the ( CD ) rib which will be completed by reaching the level 1.0250 which represents the ( D ) point, it's noticed through forming the harmonic pattern that the pair is still keeping it's direction between the frame of the bullish channel for the medium and the short-terms.
This expectation depends on the stability of the support level 1.0102.
RES: 1.0160 1.0187 1.0261
PIVOT: 1.0131
SUP: 1.0104 1.0075 1.0048.
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Wednesday 09-02-2011 Technical Analysis Report
EUR/USD
As shown in the chart, the pair in in the forming stage of a reversal pattern on the short term ( Head & Shoulders Pattern) where the head was formed at the support level 1.3508 and during the intraday trades the pair is trying to form the right shoulder of the pattern. The resistance level 1.3608 represents the neck line for this pattern which with its breaking up, the pair will continue rising to reach the 1.3861 level as the target of the pattern but first the pair should break the resistance level 1.3765
This expectation depends on the stability of the support level 1.3575
RES: 1.3684 1.3744 1.3800
PIVOT: 1.3628
SUP: 1.3568 1.3512 1.3452
GBP/USD
The bullish direction is still dominating the trades of the pair for medium and long periods whereas the pair declined at the beginning of this week trades in order to re-test the support level 1.6055 which declared its stability, once the pair hit that level it reflected up again with expectations of more rising in the light of a harmonic pattern (butterfly) which is still in the forming stage and now it is forming the last wave (CD) after breaking the level 1.6055, its re-testing and stability against the pair till now.
So that it is expected to continue rising during trading the pair above the level 1.6055 targeting the level 1.6260 as the first target of the intraday levels, if the pair succeeded to break this level up it means that the pair tends to continue rising in order to achieve the target of the pattern that is formed on the medium-term, this target is to reach the resistance area between the levels 1.6460 and 1.6545.
The stability of these expectations requires the stability of the support level 1.6055.
RES: 1.6143 1.6222 1.6277
PIVOT: 1.6085
SUP: 1.6009 1.5951 1.5875
USD/CHF
The pair rose yesterday unlike the expectations which was referring to the possibility of a further drop for the pair, the pair was able to break the resistance level 0.9600 and to be stable above it. The support level 0.9530 acts as the base of rising with expectations for a further rise during the intraday trades targeting the resistance level 0.9720 but it's provided by continuing holding the support level 0.9600 and trading the pair above it during the next hours.
RES: 0.9674 0.9717 0.9792
PIVOT: 0.9599
SUP: 0.9556 0.9481 0.9438
USD/CAD
During the last trades the pair has formed a reversal pattern which is the inverted head and shoulders pattern whereas the pair broke yesterday the second shoulder mid line but it wasn't able to reach its target at the resistance level 1.0015.
And the pair was able to reach the resistance level 0.9955as a first target for the formed pattern.
It is expected that the pair direction for the intraday trades is the bullish direction and that the pair will target the resistance level 0.9955 and the stability above this level will lead it to target the resistance level 1.0015.
RES: 0.9995 1.0040 1.0106
PIVOT: 0.9929
SUP: 0.9884 0.9818 0.9773
AUD/USD
The pair was unable to break the resistance level 1.0194 during yesterday trades which represents the ( B ) point for the harmonic pattern AB=CD giving a signal on the difficulty of completing this pattern and at the same time it's found that the pair has formed a second consecutive top at the same level which means that there's a probability on existence a reflective pattern for the bullish direction which is the double consecutive tops pattern, the base of this pattern is at the support level 1.0102 and which confirms on the strength of existence this pattern is trading the pair now below the bullish trend line which matches the ( A ) point with the ( C ) point. therefore it's expected that with breaking the support level 1.0102 down the pair will continue falling reaching the level 1.0000 which represents the targeted price for the pattern and at the same time it represents 50% Fibonacci retracement correction level for the bullish direction ( from 0.9803 to 1.0198 ).
This expectation depends on the stability of the resistance level 1.0194.
RES: 1.0186 1.0228 1.0265
PIVOT: 1.0149
SUP: 1.0107 1.0070 1.0028.
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