Intraday trading signal - page 186
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AceTraderFx Aug 18: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
18 Aug 2015 01:51GMT
GBP/USD - ..... The mildly hawkish comments by MPC official (our 01:23GMT update) over the weekend proved to be a red herring. Although Asian traders showed muted reaction to the newspaper report, London traders, in the absence of any U.K. data on Monday, used the news to take the pound higher on stop-hunting.
However, market chatter of offers just below July's 1.5691 checked intra-day gain at 1.5690 and cable quickly retreated and fell due to continued liquidation on intra-day 'speculative' long positions.
Price tumbled to 1.5619 at New York open, and despite a short-covering recovery to 1.5643, another wave of road-based pound bashing sent price tanking to 1.5578.
Cable weakened to 1.5576 at Asian open before stabilising.
Expect cable to gain temporary respite ahead of European open but price may well come under renewed selling when the key U.K. inflation data comes out at 08:30GMT.
Annual CPI is expected to stay a 'flat' rate and street forecast for July's M/M reading is -0.3% vs previous figure of 0.0%.
Therefore, if the monthly reading comes in a forecast or lower, then cable should head south.
Offers are tipped at 1.5590/00 and more above with some stops reported at 1.5620, some bids are noted at 1.5575-65 with stops reported below 1.5535.
Data to be released on Tuesday include:
Australia's RBA meeting minutes, China's house prices, UK's CPI, PPI, DCLG house price index and RPI, U.S.'s building permits, housing starts and Redbook.
AceTraderFx Aug 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 18 Aug 2015 08:12 GMT
USD/JPY - 124.25
Despite the greenback's sharp sell-off from 125.28 to as low as 123.79 last Wednesday, subsequent strong rebound on broad-based dollar strength suggests aforesaid correction has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias would be seen.
However, above 125.07 is needed to signal the erratic rise from 120.42 has resumed and yield re-test of 125.28. Above would extend gain towards 125.50/60 but June's near 13-year peak at 125.86 should remain intact this month and yield retreat later.
On the downside, only below 123.79 would confirm a temporary top has been made and risk would shift to the downside for a stronger retracement towards 123.52, then 123.01.
AceTraderFx Aug 18: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
18 Aug 2015 09:00GMT
GBP/USD - ..... Although cable came under renewed selling pressure after recovering from 1.5576 to 1.5597 in Asia and then fell to a fresh session low of 1.5563 in European morning, short-covering lifted price from there and the pair later rallied to 1.5672 as official data showed U.K. consumer price inflation rose unexpectedly in July.
In a report, the U.K. Office for National Statistics said the rate of consumer price inflation inched up by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% last month, up from a flat reading in June.
Market had expected a flat reading in July. Month-over-month, U.K. consumer price inflation declined 0.2% in July, compared to estimates for 0.3% drop and following a flat reading in June.
BoE Governor Mark Carney will now have to write an open letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, as inflation is more than a percentage point below the central bank's target of 2.0%.
At present, bids are now seen at 1.5630-10 region and more below with stops building just below 1.5580, whilst initial offers are noted at 1.5680-90 and more above with stop above 1.5720.
AceTraderFx Aug 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 19 Aug 2015 01:10 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1038
Although euro's decline from Monday's 1.1125 high to 1.1018 yesterday in NY session confirms euro's recent erratic rise from July's bottom at 1.0808 has made a top earlier last week at 1.1214 and as long as said Monday's high holds.
Downside bias remains for further weakness, near term loss of momentum would prevent steep fall today and minor chart support at 1.0960 is expected to remain intact, yield subsequent rebound.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1125 would be the 1st signal pullback from 1.1214 has ended and yield stronger gain towards 1.1189.
AceTraderFx Aug 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 19 Aug 2015 08:19 GMT
USD/JPY - 124.24
Despite the greenback's sharp sell-off from 125.28 to as low as 123.79 last Wednesday, subsequent strong rebound on broad-based dollar strength suggests aforesaid correction has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias would be seen.
However, above 125.07 is needed to signal the erratic rise from 120.42 has resumed and yield re-test of 125.28.
Above would extend gain towards 125.50/60 but June's near 13-year peak at 125.86 should remain intact this month and yield retreat later.
On the downside, only below 123.79 would confirm a temporary top has been made and risk would shift to the downside for a stronger retracement towards 123.52, then 123.01.
AceTraderFx Aug 19: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
19 Aug 2015 09:45GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr traded with a soft bias in Asia and early Europe and edged lower from 124.43 to 124.21 as risk-off trades continued to weigh on the demand for the greenback vs yen.
Order book is pretty thin right now as investors are reluctant to enter large positions ahead of the release of U.S. inflation reports and FOMC minutes in NY session.
Offers are tipped at 124.40/50 and more above with stops reported above 124.70. However, selling interest is touted at 124.80/90.
On the downside, initial bids are noted at 124.20/10 with some stops below 124.00.
AceTraderFx Aug 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 20 Aug 2015 01:08 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1139
Despite euro's re-test of Tuesday's low at 1.1018 yesterday, subsequent rally to 1.1134 in New York afternoon on dollar's broad-based weakness following the release of dovish FOMC minutes suggests the pullback from last Wednesday's 1-month high at 1.1214 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen.
Above resistance at 1.1189 would confirm this view and yield resumption of recent uptrend for a re-test of aforesaid high.
On the downside, only below 1.1018 would confirm a temporary top has been made and risk would shift to the downside for a stronger retracement towards 1.0960.
AceTraderFx Aug 20: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY ) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
Aug 20 02:07GMT
USD/JPY- ..... The greenback pares o/n sell-off to 123.69 in post-FOMC New York session after Fed minutes dashed market expectation of a Fed rate hike in September or anytime soon.
As usual, after a big move in New York, Tokyo players will fade the move and traders spotted dlr buying by Japanese importers shortly after Tokyo open, dlr edged back to 123.99 before easing as softness in the Nikkei and Chinese stocks is dampening risk sentiment in the Japanese yen.
Expect consolidation above 123.69 until European open before decline resumes.
However, steep fall is unlikely as traders will wait for release of Thursday's U.S. weekly jobless claims, existing home sales and leading indicator due out later in the day.
Offers are tipped at 124.95/05 ans more above with stops noted at 124.20. Initial bids are reported at 123.80-70 and more below with stops touted below 123.50.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany producer prices, Switzerland's trade balance, UK's retail sales and CBI trends, Canada's wholesale trade, U.S.'s existing homes sales, leading index and Philly Fed business index.
AceTraderFx Aug 20: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Aug 2015 06:47GMT
Breaking news from Reuters, FED's Williams says 'raising rates a 'costly' way to combat housing bubbles.'
Reuters then reported raising interest rates is an effective way to cool off a housing market that is too hot, but the resulting drop in house prices could wreak more economic havoc than it is worth, according to research presented Thursday by a top Federal Reserve official.
"A typical estimate is that a 1% loss in GDP is associated with a 4% reduction in house prices," San Francisco Fed President John Williams said in remarks prepared for delivery in Jakarta.
"This implies a very costly tradeoff of using monetary policy to affect house prices when macroeconomic and financial stability goals are in conflict."
Central bankers have argued for years over whether monetary policy should be used to head off risks to financial stability when poor economic conditions would not otherwise call for higher interest rates. Williams's own research and his interpretation of a range of other studies presented at the Bank Indonesia?BIS Conference bolster the argument that it should not.
That, of course, does not mean Williams opposes raising U.S. interest rates fairly soon. To the contrary, he has said previously he believes the Fed should probably raise interest rates a couple of times before the end of the year.
"If the housing sector and the overall economy are both booming, then tighter monetary policy may serve to both reduce the risks to the financial system and keep economic activity from exceeding desired levels," said Williams, whose bank is headquartered in one of the hottest housing markets in the U.S..
AceTraderFx Aug 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 20 Aug 2015 08:03 GMT
USD/JPY - 124.01
Despite dollar's sell-off to as low as 123.69 yesterday due to the release of dovish FOMC minutes, subsequent rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday's 2-month peak at 125.28 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen.
However, above resistance at 124.47 is needed to confirm this view and extend gain towards 124.60/63 later today or tomorrow.
On the downside, only below 123.69 would revive bearishness of stronger retracement of recent up-move towards 123.50/52, then to 123.20/30.