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AceTraderFx Aug 7: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
07 Aug 2015 02:21GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Although dlr edged higher after finding sup at 124.70 in Asia on Thursday and then climbed to 124.96 at New York open, selling interest below Wednesday's 7-week high of 125.01 capped intra-day gain there and dlr later retreated to 124.54 as weakness in U.S. stocks prompted yen-buying on risk aversion.
Later, dlr rebounded to 124.78 in late New York and then moved sideways for rest of the New York session.
In Asia, focus for the greenback is on the announcement of latest BoJ's monetary policy decision (expect to be 03:00-04:00GMT) and the Kuroda's press conference at 06:30GMT.
BoJ is expected to keep its money-printing program intact on Friday. The central bank is also likely to maintain its relatively positive outlook assessment for the economy, and to continue to insist the inflation target is in sight and will be hit soon
Later in New York session, market's focus will shift to the release of market's important U.S. jobs reports in NY morning, these include U.S. non-farm payroll, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. Economists are expecting an increase in payrolls of 223K, which is the same to last month's reading of 223K. For U.S. unemployment rate, economists are also forecasting it to be unchanged at 5.3%.
Finally, growth in average hourly earnings is expected to increase to 0.2% from last month's disappointing 0.0% growth rate.
Friday will see the release of Australia's housing finance, Swiss unemployment rate, Germany's exports, imports, trade balance and industrial output, U.K. goods trade balance, Canada's unemployment rate, building permits, employment change and Ivey PMI, U.S. average earnings, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate.
AceTraderFx Aug 7: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 07 Aug 2015 08:12 GMT
USD/JPY - 124.80
Dollar's rally above last Thursday's 7-week peak at 124.58 to 125.01 in New York on Wednesday signals up-move from 120.42 (July) has resumed and as price has rebounded after yesterday's intra-day retreat to 124.54, upside bias remains for aforesaid up-move to yield further gain after consolidation, however, price may falter below June's near 13-year peak at 125.86 today and yield retreat later.
On the downside, only a daily close below 124.54 would indicate a temporary top is made and shift risk to downside for retracement towards 124.02 but support at 123.80 should remain intact.
AceTraderFx Aug 7: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
07 Aug 2015 08:31GMT
EUR/USD - ..... The single currency found renewed buying after a brief drop to 1.0907 at European open and then ratcheted higher to 1.0950 due to active cross-buying in euro vs other major ccys (jpy, gbp n chf), however, profit-taking emerged there and swiftly knocked price to 1.0927.
Earlier, data from Destatis showed German industrial production fell unexpectedly with an adjusted annual rate of 1.4%, from +0.2% in the preceding month.
In a separate report, Destatis said that Germany's trade balance rose to 24.0 bln euros, from 19.5 bln euros in the preceding month whose figure was revised down from 22.8 bln euros.
At the moment, bids are reported in 1.0920-1.0900 region with bids and stops touted at 1.0880-70, whilst offers from various accounts are tipped at 1.0960-70 with stops reported just above 1.0980.
AceTraderFx Aug 7: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 07 Aug 2015 00:25GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
1.5539
55 HR EMA
1.5566
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s
13 HR RSI
66
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes
Resistance
1.5653 - Wed's high
1.5589 - Wed's NY low, now res
1.5545 - Reaction high fm 1.5465
Support
1.5465 - Y'day's low
1.5399 - 80.9% of 1.5330-1.5691
1.5330 - Jul's low (Jul 08)
. GBP/USD - 1.5513... Despite initial sideways trading ahead of BOE's super Thur, cable nose-dived to 1.5465 after only one MPC member voted for a rate hike, short-covering during BoE's Carney press conference lifted price to 1.5545.
. On the daily chart, despite extending early erratic rise fm Jul's 1.5330 low to 1.5691 last week, y'day's selloff to 1.5465 suggests aforesaid upmove has ended there n below 1.5465 would add credence to this view, then the pound would ratchet lower to 1.5399 (80.9% r of 1.5330-1.5691), break there would yield retest of 1.5330 later this month. A break of this key sup would confirm MT upmove fm 2015 near-5 year trough at 1.4566 (Apr) has ended earlier at 1.5930 (Jun), then outlook would bode ill for cable to head further south to 1.5248 (being a 'natural' 50% r of this move), then 1.5170 (Jun's low at 1.5170). Our weekly strategy had entered a short position y'day in anticipation of further fall to indicated downside targets. Only a move back abv 1.5638/53 area would dampen bearish scenario on the pound n may risk gain twd 1.5691.
. Today, although cable's sideways move in NY session shud continue in Asia, outlook remains bearish for weakness to 1.5430, then 1.5400/05.
AceTraderFx Aug 10: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
10 Aug 2015 01:39GMT
USD/JPY - 124.33.. Despite Friday's intra-day sell-off from a fresh 7-week high of 125.07 to 124.10 in post-NFP NY session, DLR staged a modest bounce ahead of Asian morning, possibly on buying by Japanese importers, suggesting sideways trading is in store.
Some offers are tipped at 124.45/55 and more above with stops noted above 124.85.
However, more selling interest is reported at 124.95/05.
At the moment, bids are touted at 124.20-10 with stops below 124.00.
Data to be released this week:
Japan current account, trade balance, BoJ economic survey, consumer confidence and EU sentix index on Monday.
UK BRC retail sales; Australia NAB business conditions, business confidence, Japan machine tool orders, Italy CPI, EU economic sentiment, Germany current conditions, economic sentiment, Canada housing starts, U.S. unit labor costs, redbook retail sales, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales on Tuesday.
Japan CGPI, machinery orders, industrial output, capacity utilisation, Australia WPI, consumer sentiment, China industrial output, retail sales, France current account, Italy trade balance, UK ILO unemployment rate, claimant count, average earnings, EU industrial production and U.S. Fed budget on Wednesday.
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Japan machinery orders, Germany CPI, HICP, France CPI, Swiss PPI, Canada new housing price, U.S. export prices, import prices, retail sales and business inventories on Thursday.
New Zealand retail sales, France GDP, Germany GDP, Italy GDP, EU GDP, inflation, Canada manufacturing sales, U.S. capacity utilisation and industrial output on Friday.
AceTraderFx Aug 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 10 Aug 2015 02:28 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0961
Despite euro's brief sell-off to as low as 1.856 on Friday following the release of solid U.S. jobs report, subsequent rally to 1.0979 suggests further choppy trading above last week's low at 1.0847 would continue with mild upside bias and above resistance area at 1.0988/96 would yield stronger retracement of decline from 1.1129 towards 1.1022 (61.8% r).
However, resistance at 1.1080/84 should remain intact and yield retreat later.
On the downside, only below 1.0907 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended and risk would shift to the downside for further weakness towards 1.0873.
AceTraderFx Aug 10: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
10 Aug 2015 06:24GMT
EUR/USD - ......Athens is negotiating with European Union institutions and the IMF for up to 86 billion euros in fresh loans to stave off economic collapse and stay in the euro zone.
The bailout must be in place by August 20, when Greece has a repayment falling due to the ECB. One senior EU official said there had been "outstanding cooperation" from the Greek side, which was keen to have a deal in place the soonest possible.
But the official said sticking points for some member states was still the size of the overall bailout, which some wanted reduced from the up to 86 billion agreed at the euro summit last month because of the political sensitivity.
For the Greek side, Greek sources said a key source of concern was how to deal with a mountain of non-performing loans in the banking sector, a factor likely to weigh on a potential recapitalisation bill for the banks.
AceTraderFx Aug 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 10 Aug 2015 08:10 GMT
USD/JPY - 124.45
Despite dollar's sell-off from a fresh 7-week high at 125.07 to 124.10 in New York session on Friday, intra-day strong rebound suggests aforesaid correction has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains, above resistance at 124.86 would confirm this view and yield resumption of up-move from July's trough at 120.42 for a re-test of abovementioned high, break would extend marginal gain.
However, June's near 13-year peak at 125.86 should remain intact.
On the downside, only below 124.10 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk would shift to the downside for a stronger retracement towards 123.52.
AceTraderFx Aug 10: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading USD/CHF
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 09 Aug 2015 23:10GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
0.9830
55 HR EMA
0.9813
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
53
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with a neutral bias
Resistance
0.9984 - May 19 high
0.9927 - 80.9% r of 1.0129-0.9072
0.9885 - Last Fri's high
Support
0.9793 - Last Fri's low
0.9759 - Last Wed's low
0.9720 - Jul's high (now sup)
. USD/CHF- 0.9833... The greenback continued its recent winning streak last week due to covert buying of eur/chf cross by SNB. Price penetrated Jul's 0.9720 high n later climbed to a fresh 4-month peak of 0.9885 Fri b4 retreating.
. On the bigger picture, last week's rally abv Jul's 0.9720 high to 0.9885 confirms dlr's MT erratic upmove fm May's 3-month bottom at 0.9072 to retrace early decline fm Mar's peak at 1.0129 remains in progress n price is en route to 0.9927, being 80.9% r of 1.0129-0.9072. However, as the daily oscillators' readings would be in o/bot territory on such move, reckon upside would falter well below 1.0129 n yield a much-needed minor correction. On the downside, a daily close below 0.9720 (last week's top, now sup) would be 1st signal a temporary top has been made, then risk would shift to the downside for a minor correction twd 0.9666 (Tue low) but daily sup at 0.9548 should remain intact.
. Today, as said Fri's 0.9885 was accompanied by prominent 'bearishivergences', subsequent retreat suggests a temporary top is possibly made n below 0.9593 would add credence to this view, then several days of consolidation with downside bias would be seen for a long-overdue retracement to 0.9759.
AceTraderFx Aug 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 11 Aug 2015 01:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1028
Despite euro's brief sell-off to as low as 1.856 on Friday following the release of solid U.S. jobs report, subsequent rally to 1.1042 yesterday suggests up-move from week's low at 1.0847 to retrace the decline from 1.1129 would head towards 1.1080/84 after initial consolidation.
However, near term loss of momentum would cap price below resistance at 1.1105/ 10 and yield retreat later.
On the downside, only below 1.0925 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended and risk would shift to the downside for further weakness towards 1.0873.