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AceTraderFx Feb 20: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Update At 20 Feb 2014 00:51GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.6689
55 HR EMA
1.6693
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
44
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Initial decline b4 rebound
Resistance
1.6823 - Mon's fresh 4-year high
1.6796 - Hourly chart
1.6742 - Tue's high
Support
1.6637 - Y'day's low
1.6600 - Hourly chart
1.6558 - Prev. res, now sup
. GBP/USD - 1.6678... Despite cable's brief rebound to 1.6734 in European
morning y'ay, price tumbled to 1.6660 after higher-than-expected U.K. unemploy-
ment rate n then to 1.6537 ahead of NY open. Later, cable recovered on short-
covering to 1.6725 in NY morning b4 falling again after FOMC minutes.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's firm breach of Tue's low
at 1.6655 to 1.6637 confirms corrective decline fm Mon's 4-year peak at 1.6823
has resumed n as long as res area at 1.6734/42 (y'day's high n Tue's high)
holds, downside bias remains for aforesaid fall to retrace MT uptrend fm 2013
bottom at 1.4814 (Jul) to extend marginally, however, as houly oscillators'
readings wud display 'bullish convergences' on next decline, reckon 1.6600/05,
hourly chart lvl n the 'minimum' 38.2% r of intermediate rise fm 1.6252-1.6823,
wud contain weakness n yield rebound later.
. In view of abv analysis, although selling cable on intra-day recovery is
favoured, day traders shud buy the pound on next decline. On the upside, a daily
close abv the said res area at 1.6724-42 wud be the 1st signal correction is
over n yield further gain twd 1.6796, then re-test of 1.623 next week.
AceTraderFx Feb 21: Euro weakens on Thursday after weak PMI data
Market Review - 20/02/2014 21:17GMT
Euro weakens on Thursday after weak PMI data
The single currency dropped against the dollar on Thursday after data showed that private sector activity in the euro area slowed in February. Euro dropped from Asian high of 1.3763 to as low as 1.3686 after the disappointing PMI reports before stabilizing. Later, the pair climbed back to 1.3729 in New York morning and then traded sideways in New York afternoon.
The French manufacturing PMI fell to a two month low of 48.5, while the nation's services PMI fell to a nine-month low of 46.9. Meanwhile, Germany's manufacturing PMI slowed to 54.7 from 56.5 in January, while the country's services PMI rose to 55.4 this month from 53.1 in January. Later, a separate report showed that the euro zone's manufacturing PMI fell to a two-month low of 53.0 from 54.0 in January, compared to expectations for an unchanged reading.
Dollar fluctuated wildly against the yen on Thursday, although the safe haven yen was boosted after data showed that the preliminary reading of China's HSBC manufacturing index fell to a seven month low of 48.3 this month, down from 49.5 in January and usd/jpy fell fm Asian high of 102.40 to 101.67 in European morning, renewed buying lifted price from there and dollar later rose to 102.42 in New York morning after reports showed that U.S. jobless claims fell last week, U.S. consumer prices rose broadly in line with forecasts in January, and U.S. manufacturing PMI expanded at the fastest pace this month since May 2010.
U.S. consumer prices rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in January, in line with expectations. Consumer prices were 0.1% higher from a month earlier, also matching forecasts. The number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell by 3,000 to 336,000, slightly below expectations for a decline of 4,000.
Market research group Markit said that its preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI increased to 56.7 in February from a final reading of 53.7 in January.
Cable moved closely with euro and dropped from Asian high of 1.6995, price briefly penetrated Wednesday low at 1.6637 to 1.6635 in European morning but active cross-buying of sterling limited intra-day losses there. Later, cable was lifted to 1.6700 in New York morning and moved in a choppy fashion for rest of the session.
In other news, BoJ board member Morimoto said on Thursday that 'Japan economic growth to exceeding potential despite impact of sales tax hike; important to average out swing caused by sales tax hike when making policy decision; Japan's economy is steady making progress towards 2% inflation target; needs to monitor impact of Fed tapering on capital flows n real economy; JGB yields may rise in a way derivating from economic fundamentals n trust in Japan's finances is lost.'
Data to be release on Friday:
UK retail sales, public sector net borrowing, Canada CPI and U.S. existing home sales.
AcetraderFx Feb 21: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic – USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1072.6
21 Feb 2014 00:11GMT
Despite opening marginally higher to 1073.9, present sent retreat suggests up move from 1058.2 (Mon) has made a minor top n pullback to 1069/70 likely b4 up.
Exit long at 1071.3 n buy again on dips to 1070.0. Above 1073.9 would extend subsequent gain to 1075/76.
AcetraderFx Feb 21: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
21 Feb 2014 00:02GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
102.22
55 HR EMA
102.17
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
62
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy consolidation to continue
Resistance
103.10 - 50% r of 105.45-100.76
102.74 - Tue's high
102.47 - Wed's high
Support
101.67 - Y'day's low
101.38 - Mon's low
100.76 - Feb 06 low
. USD/JPY - 102.32... The greenback met heavy selling pressure in Asia due to selloff in Nikkei index together with release of poor CH manf. PMI n tumbled to session low at 101.67 in European morning. However, dlr pared its losses n rose to 102.43 in NY morning after data showed U.S. jobless claims fell.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, despite y'day's initial retreat to 101.67, subsequent rebound suggests choppy consolidation abv Feb's 10-wk low at 100.76 wud continue with mild upside bias wud be seen, abv Tue's high at 102.74 is needed to confirm erratic decline fm Jan's 5-year peak at 105.45 has formed a low there n bring stronger correction twds 103.10, being the 'natural' 50% r of the abovementioned fall, a break there wud extend marginally but reckon daily res at 103.45 (Jan 28 peak) shud remain intact n yield decline early next week.
On the downside, only below 101.38 wud signal recovery fm 100.76 is over instead n turn outlook bearish for a re-test of said low.
. Today, in view of abv analysis n as dlr continues to edge higher at Asian open, buying on intra-day dips is the way to go with a stop placed below y'day's low at 101.67, break wud abort bullishness on the buck, risk 101.38.
AceTraderFX Feb 24: Euro strengthens against the dollar after disappointing US...
Market Review - 21/02/2014 21:06GMT
Euro strengthens against the dollar after disappointing U.S. home sales data
The single currency rose against the dollar on Friday after the release of disappointing U.S. existing home sales data which fell sharply to the lowest level in more than a year in January, the latest sign that the housing market in U.S. is buckling under higher mortgage rates and harsh winter.
During the day, although the single currency retreated after staging a brief jump to 1.3725 in Asia, renewed buying limited intra-day losses to 1.3702 and price later rallied to 1.3759 in New York morning after disappointing U.S. exiting home sales data but profit-taking knocked price to 1.3720 b4 recovering.
According to the National Association of Realtors, U.S existing home sales fell by 5.1% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.62 million in January from 4.87 million in December, the lowest level since July 2012, when it stood at 4.59 million.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar rose above Thursday's high of 102.43 to 102.71 in Asia after the BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes highlighted worries over the health of emerging economies together with the release of Japan's record trade deficit but cross-buying of yen knocked price down to 102.34 in European morning. Later, the pair rose again on renewed cross-selling on yen and the pair penetrated Tuesday's high of 102.74 to a fresh 2-week high at 102.83 in New York morning before easing.
Bank of Japan on Friday released the minutes of the meeting held on Jan. 21-22 and noted that, 'with regard to the emerging and commodity-exporting economies, many members said that the developments in these economies, some of which we're facing structural problems such as current account deficits, continued to warrant attention together with developments in the global financial markets.'
Cable fluctuated wildly on Friday as despite falling from Asian high at 1.6686 to a fresh 1-week low at 1.6610 in European morning after downbeat U.K. retail sales, price swiftly rallied to 1.6690 on short-covering. Later, cable retreated to 1.6656 but only to rally to 1.6725 in New York on dollar's broad-based weakness (except versus yen) after worse-than-expected U.S. existing home sales data before falling sharply to 1.6613 in New York trading.
Official data showed that U.K. retail sales dropped 1.5% in January, more than the expectation of 1% decline. Retail sales in December were revised down to a 2.5% increase from a previously estimated 2.6% gain. On a yearly basis, U.K. retail sales rose 4.3% last month, compared to expectations for a 5% increase, after a 5.3% advance in December.
A separate report showed that public sector net borrowing in the U.K. dropped by 6.4 billion pounds in January, confounding expectations for a 9 billion pounds decline. Public sector net borrowing for December was revised down to a 9 billion pounds increase from a previously estimated 10.4 billion pounds jump.
The Sydney G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting will be held over the weekend of 22-23 February 2014, with the main meeting being held on the Sunday. Australia Treasurer Joe Hockey said earlier on Wednesday that 'Australia will use its presidency of the Group of 20 advanced and emerging economies to push for agreements on strengthening global growth and to generate ideas on funding public infrastructure.'
Data to be released next week:
UK house prices, Germany Ifo business climate, current assessment, expectations, import price index and EU CPI on Monday.
Germany GDP, exports, imports, Italy retail sales, consumer confidence, UK CBI trends, U.S. house price index and consumer confidence on Tuesday.
Germany Gfk consumer confidence, UK exports, imports, GDP, U.S. mortgage applications and new home sales on Wednesday.
New Zealand trade balance, exports, imports, Swiss GDP, France consumer confidence, Germany unemployment, CPI, HICP, EU economic confidence, consumer confidence, Canada current account, U.S. durable goods and jobless claims on Thursday.
Japan manufacturing PMI, jobless rate, CPI, industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, construction orders, UK Gfk consumer confidence, France PPI, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy unemployment rate, EU unemployment rate, Canada GDP, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, core PCE, pending home sales and U. of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.
AceTraderFx Feb 24: Daily Market Outlook on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3739
Update Time:24 Feb 2014 00:33 GMT
Despite Friday's brief but sharp rebound to 1.3758, subsequent retreat to 1.3720 suggests initial consolidation would be seen and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, however, support at 1.3702 should contain downside and yield strong rebound later today. Above 1.3758 would retain bullishness for a re-test of last week's high at 1.3773, break would extend gain towards 1.3819/20.
On the downside, only below 1.3685 would abort intra-day bullish view and risk stronger retracement of rise from February's low at 1.3477 towards 1.3619.
AceTraderFx Feb 24: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic - USD/SGD
Daily USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2673
24 Feb 2014 03:46GMT
As USD has rebounded after a retreat from 1.2692 to
1.2662 in NY, up move from 1.2582 to retrace decline
from 1.2830 (Jan) to extend twd 1.2706 (50% r) later.
Hold long for this move n only below sup area at
1.2637/43 would risk stronger pullback to 1.2615/20.
AceTraderFx Feb 25: Dollar rises broadly Monday on safe haven demand
Market Review - 24/02/2014 21:25GMT
Dollar rises broadly Monday on safe haven demand
The dollar strengthened against other major currencies on Monday as safe haven demand increased after data showed that Chinese home prices fell for the first time in 14 months in January and added to fears that the world's second largest economy is slowing as the government tries to tackle bad loans and weak lenders.
During the day, although euro rose to a session high of 1.3772 after reports showed German business confidence rose more than expected this month, investors shrugged off the upbeat data and long-liquidation in 'delayed' reaction to 'negative' deposit rate comments by ECB Visco pressured price below New Zealand bottom at 1.3729 to a fresh session low of 1.3709 in New York morning before rebounding.
Ifo German business climate index came in at 111.3 in February, the highest level since mid-2011, up from 110.6 in January, meanwhile, the future expectations component of the index ticked down to 108.3 from 108.9 in January, but was ahead of expectations for a decline to 108.1. A separate report showed that the annual rate of euro zone inflation came in at 0.8% in January, unchanged from the previous month and slightly higher than the preliminary estimate for 0.7%.
ECB Goverrning Council member Ignazio Visco (also Governor of Bank of Italy) said on Monday that 'if needed, we're ready to consider negative deposit rate, Danish experience with this was not bad.'
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar dropped extended losses from Friday's near 3-week high of 102.83 to 102.17 in Asia but traded higher in European session due to the rebound in Nikkei futures. Later, dollar rose to 102.61 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based firmness before easing.
Cable fluctuated wildly on Monday, despite a brief selloff below last Friday's low at 1.6610 to 1.6598 in European morning, lack of follow-through selling lifted price from there and price later rebounded strongly to 1.6679, helped buy active cross-buying of sterling. Later, dollar's broad-based firmness knocked price down to a fresh near 2-week low at 1.6583 in New York morning before rebounding to 1.6670 in late New York.
News over the weekend worth noting, Bloomberg reported Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on the sidelines of the weekend G20 meeting, gave an interview with Australian newspapers published Sun and said a new phase of forward guidance is intended to give assurance that officials will support the economic rebound. He said 'we will not take risks with the recovery,' and 'we are going to set the path of monetary policy in a way that ensures that we see sustainable growth in jobs n incomes n in spending.' Carney said the revised framework for forward guidance that he introduced earlier this month reflects the necessity for a 'more complex set of judgments' than was needed in the first phase, where there was a link to the unemployment rate. The bank changed its approach after the jobless rate fell faster than officials had forecast toward the 7% threshold for considering an interest-rate increase.
Data to be release on Tuesday:
Germany GDP, exports, imports, Italy retail sales, consumer confidence, U.K. CBI trends, U.S. house price index and consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Feb 25: Daily Market Outlook on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3736
Update Time: 25 Feb 2014 01:22 GMT
Despite yesterday's sharp retreat from 1.3772 to 1.3708 due to negative deposit rate comments from ECB's Visco, subsequent recovery to 1.3748 in New York morning suggests consolidation with upside bias would be seen, however, above resistance at 1.3772/73 is needed to confirm erratic up move from February's low at 1.3477 has resumed and extend gain towards 1.3800, then 1.3819.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.3685 would abort intra-day bullishness and risk stronger retracement of aforesaid rise towards 1.3657.
AceTraderFx Feb 25: Daily Technical Outlook on Major USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
25 Feb 2014 01:40GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.8886
55 HR EMA
0.8884
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
51
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes
Resistance
0.8994 - 61.8% r of 0.9082 to 0.8851
0.8968 - Feb 12 low
0.8929 - Last Tue's high
Support
0.8851 - Y'day's low
0.8800 - Dec 2-year low (27th)
0.8771 - 1.236 ext. of 0.9156-0.8904 fm 0.9082
. USD/CHF - 0.8885... Although dlr remained under pressure in Asia on Mon due
to selling of eur/chf cross n briefly fell below last Wed's low at 0.8956 to
a fresh 8-week trough at 0.8951 in Europe, renewed dlr's broad-based strength n
cross unwinding lifted price to 0.8910 in NY morning b4 retreating.
. Looking at hourly n daily charts, dlr's recovery after y'day's resumption
of 'erratic' fall fm 0.9156 to 0.8851 suggests a minor low is made n choppy
trading wud be seen initially, however, present falling daily technical indica-
tors suggests dlr's broad outlook remains mildly bearish, reckon chart res at
0.8929/39, being the 'minimum' 38.2% r of intermediate fall fm 0.9082-0.9051 n
last Tue's high respectively, wud cap upside n bring another fall twd Dec's 2-
year trough at 0.8800 later this week. However, a break there is needed to con-
firm the MT downtrend fm 2012 peak at 0.9972 has finally resumed, extend weak-
ness to 0.8636 next month, this is 50% proj. of the intermediate fall fm 0.8839
(2013 high in May) to 0.8800 measured fm 0.9156.
. Today, we are trading dlr fm short side for next decline to 0.8830. Only
abv 0.8968 (Feb 12 low) risks stronger retrace. twd 0.8990/00 b4 down.