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AceTraderFx Feb 6: Daily Market Outlook on Major – EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3531
06 Feb 2014 01:10 GMT
Despite euro's volatile trading on Wednesday, as price has retreated after being capped below yesterday's New York morning high of 1.3555, suggesting recovery from Monday's 2-month low at 1.3477 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains, however, breach of said support is needed to confirm decline from December's 2-year peak at 1.3894 has resumed and extend weakness to next retracement objective at 1.3455 and later towards 1.3399.
On the upside, only a firm breach of chart resistance at 1.3574 would confirm a temporary low is in place and turn outlook mildly bullishness instead for gain to 1.3603/09 and then 1.3640
AceTraderFx Feb 6: Daily Technical Outlook on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
06 Feb 2014 00:41GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.3527
55 HR EMA
1.3523
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
58
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes
Resistance
1.3603 - Last Wed's low
1.3574 - Last Fri's high
1.3555 - Y'day's high
Support
1.3477 - Mon's 2-month low
1.3455 - 38.2% r of 1.2745-1.3894
1.3399 - Nov 21 low
. EUR/USD - 1.3507 ... The single currency fluctuated wildly in Wed NY session. Despite a brief bounce fm European 1.3499 low to 1.3555 in NY morning after release of less-than-expected U.S. ADP employment, euro dropped swiftly to 1.3504 on upbeat U.S. ISM non-manuf. report b4 recovering to 1.3546.
. Looking at the hourly chart, the erratic rise fm Mon's 2-month low at 1.3477 to 1.3555 (Wed) is viewed as a minor retracement of recent decline fm Jan's 2-year peak at 1.3894 n as long as indicated res at 1.3574 res (last Fri's high) holds, outlook remains bearish for aforesaid fall to correct the intermediate MT rise fm 2013 trough at 1.2745 to resume after consolidation, below said sup wud extend weakness to next downside objective at 1.3455, this is the 'minimum' 38.2% r of 1.2745-1.3894, however, previous daily sup at 1.3399 wud contain downside n yield a much needed strg rebound later this week as 'bullish convergences' wud appear on the hourly oscillators on next decline.
. Today, we're holding a short position in anticipation of a re-test of 1.3477. On the upside, only abv 1.3603/09 (last Wed's low, now res n 50% r of 1.3740-1.3477 resp.) wud confirm a temp. low is made n risk retrace. twd 1.3677.
AceTraderFx Feb 7: Euro jumps from 1.3483 to 1.3619 as ECB refraines from...
Market Review - 06/02/2014 18:10GMT
Euro jumps from 1.3483 to 1.3619 as ECB refraines from announcing any additional stimulus measures
Despite brief drop to 1.3483, the single currency jumped to as high as 1.3619 on Thursday after ECB's president Draghi said there is no eurozone deflation problem and need to wait for more data before taking action, following ECB kept interest unchanged.
The greenback rallied from 101.25 to 102.00 against the Japanese yen due to improved risk appetite (euro rose strongly against the Japanese yen from 136.80 to 138.80) as global stock markets rebounded.
On the data front, U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 20,000, bigger-than-expected, to a seasonally adjusted 331,000 last week. The U.S. trade deficit widened to $38.7 billion in December as exports fell and imports rose.
Despite early brief drop to 1.6272, the British pound rebounded after the Bank of England kept interest range unchanged at 0.5% as widely expected. BOE also left QE asset purchase total unchanged at 375 billion sterling. BOE makes no statement after monetary policy decision. Cable later rebounded to 1.6348 on short-covering in tandem with euro in New York.
Australian dollar extended gain to 0.8981 against U.S. currency after the release of Australia's trade data as the exports exceeded imports by A$468 million ($420 million) in December.
In other news, European Central Bank policymaker Christian Noyer told Les Echos daily in an interview to appear in its Friday edition that 'the euro zone's fragile economic recovery and low inflation is "not normal, but not alarming."
Friday will see the release of RBA policy statement, Japan's leading indicators, Germany's trade data, U.K. trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production, German industrial production, Canada's unemployment rate and the important U.S. non-farm payrolls.
lAceTraderFx Feb 7: Daily Market Outlook on Major EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3590
Update Time: 07 Feb 2014 01:35 GMT
Yesterday rally from 1.3482 to 1.3619 on Thursday after ECB'S President Mario Draghi refraining from any additional stimulus measures announcement signals decline from December's 2-year peak at 1.3894 has made a temporary low earlier at Monday's 2-month trough at 1.3477.
Consolidation with upside bias remains, above said overnight resistance at 1.3619 would bring stronger retracement to 1.3640 and then 1.3665/70, however, near term over bought condition should cap price below chart res sat 1.3686 and yield retreat later.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.3508 (previous daily support level) would indicate aforesaid correction is over instead and bring re-test of 1.3477, break, 1.3455 and then towards 1.3399.
AceTradeFx Feb 7 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1075.2
07 Feb 2014 05:41GMT
Despite dlr's recovery after opening lower to 1073.0,
fall fm Tue's 4-month top at 1089.9 shud head
twd 1070 after consolidation but 1067.8 wud hold.
Stand aside n look to sell on pullback next week
as 1080 wud cap upside n yield another selloff.
AceTraderFx Feb 7: Daily Technical Outlook on Major EUR/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
07 Feb 2014 00:28GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.3571
55 HR EMA
1.3548
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Easing fm overbought
13 HR RSI
64
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
1.3686 - 50% r of 1.3894-1.3477
1.3640 - 38.2% r of 1.3894-1.3477
1.3619 - Y'day's high
Support
1.3555 - Wed's high, now sup
1.3508 - Jan 20 low
1.3477 - Mon's 2-month low
. EUR/USD - 1.3507... Euro went through a 'roller-coaster' session y'day.
Despite brief drop to 1.3482 when ECB press conference began, solid bids abv
Mon's 2-mth low at 1.3477 lifted price n euro surged to as high as 1.3619 after
ECB's President Draghi refrained fm announcing any additional stimulus measures.
. Looking at the biiger picture, y'day's rally to 1.3619 signals recent
decline fm Jan's 2-year peak at 1.3894 has formed a temporary low at 1.3477 on
Mon n as long as 1.3555 (Wed's high, now sup) holds, 'choppy' consolidation with
upside bias remains for a correction to 1.3636/40 (being 61.8% r of 1.3740-1.34
77 n the minimum 38.2% r of 1.3894-1.3477 respectively), however, high readings
on hourly oscillators shud cap price at 1.3686/88 (50% r of 1.3894-1.3477 n Jan
28 high) n yield retreat later. Looking ahead, abv 1.3686/88 wud bring further
gain to chart res at 1.3740 but a daily close abv there is needed confirm the
major correction fm 1.3894 is over.
. In view of abv analysis, buying euro on intra-day pullback in anticipa-
tion of further gain is favoured. On the downside, only below 1.3536/44 wud
signal recovery fm 1.3508 is over instead n risk re-test of 1.3477 sup.
AceTraderFx Feb 10: U.S. dollar rallies versus Japanese yen on the rise in global...
Market Review - 07/02/2014 18:31GMT
U.S. dollar rallies versus Japanese yen on the rise in global stock markets
U.S. dollar rallied to as high as 102.58 against the Japanese yen on improved risk appetite due to the rally in global stock markets.
Although the greenback retreated briefly and strongly from 102.53/58 to an intra-day low of 101.41 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data which came in at 113,000 versus economists' forecast of 185,000 jobs added to the market, the pair rallied to 103.58 again due to the rally in U.S. stock markets.
Despite euro's brief retreat to 1.3553 in European session after German Constitutional Court said to refer ECB's bond-buying programme to European Court, the single currency rallied later to an intra-day high of 1.3648 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data, however, profit-taking knocked price lower to 1.3576 before rebounding.
German Constitutional Court said 'to refer ECB's bond-buying programme to European Court; it will rule on legality of ESM bailout mechanism and fiscal pact on March 18; sees substantial reasons to suggest OMT programme exceeds ECB mandate and infringes ban on funding member states; it is possible however that limited interpretation of OMT could make it conform to law.' The complaint said the ECB's plan, which pumps money into the financial system much the same way as the U.S. quantitative easing program, oversteps its mandate and violates a ban on it funding governments.
The British pound fell briefly to 1.6301 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.K. industrial and manufacturing output which came in at 0.4% m/m (forecast 0.6%), 1.8% y/y n 0.3% m/m (forecast 0.6%) or 1.5% y/y, however, cable ratcheted higher in tandem with euro in New York.
In other news, Canada's Flaherty said asked if 2015-16 surplus could be bigger than C$3.7 bln predicted in November; when asked what he would do about price parity with the United States, says wait for budget; next week's budget will not show a balance for coming year; primary function of Tuesday's budget is to stay the course, not waver from path of fiscal responsibility; Jan job gains are very good but important to look at trend, which also is good. The Canadian dollar tumbled fm 1.1080 to 1.0968 after U.S. NFP data before rebounding on short-covering.
AceTraderFx Feb 10: Daily Outlook on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY OUTLOOK - 102.59
09 Feb 2014 23:09GMT
Fri's resumption of erratic up move from Tuesday's 10-
week low at 100.76 after a knee-kerk reaction to
101.40 suggests aforesaid rise to retrace dlr's dec
line from 105.45 (Jan) would extend twd 102.94, loss of
momentum would cap price below 103.10 (50% r) today.
Raise long entry for this move n only below 101.
40 signals correction is over, 101.15/25 later.
AceTraderFx Feb 10: WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
10 Feb 2014 00:19GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
1.3607
55 HR EMA
1.3581
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
60
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
1.3740 - Jan 24 high
1.3685 - Jan 29 high
1.3649 - Last Fri's high
Support
1.3576 - Fri's reaction low fm 1.3649
1.3552 -1.3552
1.3483 - Last Fri's low
. EUR/USD - 1.3622... Euro briefly fell to a 2-month low at 1.3477 last Mon
n despite another attempt to re-test this level on Thur, price swiftly rallied to
1.3619 after ECB President Draghi did not give any hint of an imminent monetary
easing. Price then climbed to 1.3649 Fri after mixed U.S. jobs report.
. Looking at the daily chart, euro's rally to 1.3649 signals the early cor
reaction from Dec's 2-year peak at 1.3894 has made a low at 1.3477 as this level was
accompanied by prominent bullish convergences on the hourly oscillators' readings.
. As aforesaid rise on Fri has exceeded the 'minimum' 38.2% r obj. (1.3636) n
with current price trading above the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, upside bias remains for
the single currency to head to 1.3686 n probably twd 1.3735, being 50% n 61.8%
retracements respectively of the above mentioned fall from 1.3894. Looking ahead,
only a daily close abv 1.3740 res wud suggest the enture correction is over n
yield further gain twd 1.3894 in late Feb/early Mar. On the downside, a daily
close below 1.3552 (Fri's low) wud abort present bullishness on euro.
. Today, euro is expected to maintain a biddish tone n extend gain to next
chart obj. at 1.3785/86 but reckon res at 1.3740 shud cap upside.
AceTraderFx Feb 11: Dollar remains under pressure ahead of Fed's chairman Yellen...
Market Review - 10/02/2014 22:57GMT
Dollar remains under pressure ahead of Fed's chairman Yellen first testimony
The greenback traded mixed but with a soft bias against the other major currencies in thin trade on Monday as last Friday's downbeat non-farm payrolls report continued to dampen demand for the greenback. Investors are reluctant to add bets ahead of Fed's chairman Yellen first testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Thursday.
During the day, although euro opened lower at 1.3609 in New Zealand on Monday and then traded sideways in Asia, price rebounded in European morning and rose above last Friday's high of 1.3649 to 1.3652. Later, selling in euro crosses together with the worse-than-expected French manufacturing production and Italian industrial production pressured price to 1.3623 before moving sideways in New York trading.
Official data showed that French industrial production fell 0.3% in December, compared to expectations for a decrease of 0.2%. Industrial production in November was revised down to a 1.2% increase from a previously estimated 1.3% rise. A separate report showed that Italian industrial production fell in December after three straight gains, with a decline of 0.9%, compare to consensus forecast of a reading of 0.0%.
Versus the Japanese yen, despite dollar initial rise above last Friday's high of 102.58 to 102.65 in Australia, active buying of yen crosses knocked price down to 102.07 in European morning and then lower to 101.99 in New York morning. However, price pared intra-day losses and recovered to 102.27 near New York closing.
Cable moved sideways in Asia and then rose above last Friday's high of 1.6418 to 1.6428 ahead of European opening. Price later dropped to 1.6384 on cross-selling of sterling versus yen and euro in European morning and then moved around 1.6400 level for rest of the day.
In other news, EU's economic chief Olli Rehn says 'ECB still has big bazooka with plenty of ammunition after German court ruling; appropriate that an EU court should have final says over ECB as an EU institution; ECB should take decisions to ensure it meets its inflation target, better supporting euro zone economy; current 0.8% euro zone inflation is "quite far from ECB's self-set target".'