Intraday trading signal - page 75
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Acetraderfx Jan 14 : Daily Outlook On Asian Exotics USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1058.4
14 Jan 2014 05:43GMT
Usd's strg rebound fm y'day's low at 1055.6 sug-
gests fall fm 1071.0 (last Tue) has possibly made
a temp. low there, abv 1061.1 confirms, 1064.1.
On the downside, only below 1056.7 indicates
recovery is over n yields re-test of 1055.6.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 1061.1/1064.1/1071.0
SUP : 1055.6/1054.9/1052.5
AceTraderFx Jan 15: Dollar strengthens against the yen after upbeat U.S. retail sales
Market Review - 14/01/2014 21:42GMT
Dollar strengthens against the yen after upbeat U.S. retail sales
U.S. dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Tuesday after data showed that U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in December, bolstering the outlook for the economy going into 2014.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar found support at 103.02 at Asian open on Tuesday and climbed higher to 103.52 after data showed that trade deficit in the Japan widened to 1,254.3 billion yen in November, price later dropped to 103.23 at Asian midday but only to rally to as high as 104.29 near New York close due to the release of better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data.
The Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% last month, beating expectations for a 0.1% increase. Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, climbed 0.7% in December, above forecasts for a 0.4% increase.
The single currency traded sideways against the dollar in Asia and then dropped to 1.3649 shortly after European opening, however, 'euro-supportive' comments from European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny lifted price sharply higher to 1.3699 in European morning but profit-taking ahead of 1.3700 pressured price lower ahead of New York open. Later, euro briefly fell to 1.3658 after release of upbeat U.S. retail sales and then traded sideways for rest of New York session.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said on Tuesday that 'there was a potential upside to the ECB’s growth forecast for this year. The ECB revised its growth forecast for 2014 slightly higher in December, saying it now expects growth of 1.1%.'
The British pound moved in a choppy fashion versus the dollar on Tuesday. Cable dropped to 1.6368 in early European trading and then rose sharply to 1.6447 in tandem with euro and active cross buying in sterling in European morning, price then swiftly tanked to 1.6396 after the U.K. inflation data but later rose further to 1.6465 in New York before retreating.
On the data front, U.K. reported that the annual rate of consumer inflation rose 2.0% in December, slowing from 2.1% in November. It was the first time since 2009 that the U.K. inflation rate was in line with the Bank of England’s official target of 2%.
In the other news, Fed's Plosser says 'prefers to end bond purchases before late 2014; economy 'on firmer footing than it has been for the past several years; expects 6.2% U.S. unemployment by year end; rise in inflation toward 2%; Dec jobs growth likely hit by cold weather; drop in workforce participation mostly driven by demographics.'
Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said on Tuesday that "the droves of Americans dropping out of the work force may not be a problem that needs to be fixed with policies; the U.S. labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, fell 0.2 percentage point to 62.8 percent in December, returning to the more than 35-year low hit in October."
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Japan machine tools orders, Germany GDP, Swiss retail sales, EU trade balance, US empire state mfg, PPI, Fed releases Beige Book report and Canada existing home sales.
AceTraderFx Jan 15: Daily Outlook on Minors - USD/CAD
DAILY USD/CAD OUTLOOK - 1.0950
15 Jan 2014 00:40GMT
Y'day's rally to a fresh 4-year high at 1.0960
suggests MT uptrend wud head twd 1.1000, however,
'loss of momentum' wud cap usd at 1.1030/32 today.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated n only below
1.0879 wud risk retracement twd 1.0843 b4 rebound.
STRATEGY : Buy at 1.0930
OBJECTIVE : 1.0995
STOP-LOSS : 1.0895
RES : 1.0960/1.1000/1.1032
SUP : 1.0912/1.0879/1.0843
AceTraderFx Jan 16: Dollar strengthens broadly after upbeat U.S. data
Market Review- 15/01/2014 22:09GMT
Dollar strengthens broadly after upbeat U.S. data
The greenback rose further against the other major currencies on Wednesday after data showed that U.S. producer price inflation rose in December, while a separate report showed that manufacturing activity in the Empire state rose far more strongly than forecast in the current month.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar rose above Tuesday's high of 104.29 to 104.47 in Asia and then traded sideways in Europe, however, price found support at 104.22 in New York morning and later rose to further to 104.70 near New York close on dollar's broad-based firmness after release of upbeat U.S. data.
U.S. producer price inflation rose 0.4% last month, the biggest increase since June, recovering from a 0.1% decline in November and was 1.2% higher from a year earlier. U.S. Core PPI was up 0.3% in December and rose 1.4% on a year-over-year basis, compared to expectations for a monthly increase of 0.1% and an annual gain of 1.3%. A separate report showed that manufacturing activity in the Empire State expanded at the fastest pace since May 2012 this month, Fed's general business conditions index jumped to 12.51 in January from an upwardly revised 2.22 in December.
The single currency fell below Tuesday's low at 1.3649 to 1.3627 in Asia. Despite a recovery to 1.3645, release of lower-than-expected Germany 2013 GDP pressured price again in European morning and price tanked to 1.3608 and then further to 1.3582 in New York morning after release of robust U.S. data before stabilising.
Germany's Federal Statistics Office said Wednesday the economy expanded by just 0.4% in 2013 after increasing by 0.7% in 2012, as the crisis in the euro zone acted as a drag on growth. Market had been expecting growth of 0.5%.
Cable traded in a choppy fashion on Wednesday but ended lower on dollar's broad-based firmness. Despite retreating from Asian high of 1.6443 in tandem with euro to 1.6377 in European morning, active cross-buying of sterling due to comments from British Financial Minister Osborne lifted price to 1.6437, however, renewed selling interest capped gain there and price later dropped further to a fresh 3-week low of 1.6323 in New York morning after upbeat U.S. data.
Britian's Financial Minister Osborne said Wednesday that 'stalling EU-US free trade deal would be a betrayal; open to idea of smaller number of EU states liberalizing trade in certain areas without overall EU agreement; worried that Eurozone countries could use their voting weight to rewrite EU rules, impose laws on UK's financial services industry; there's a "very real risk" that badly thought through EU laws will be imposed on the UK, says damaging city of London would be bad for all of Europe; non-euro states need their rights legally protected if countries like Britain are to remain in the EU; treaties are not fit for purpose; doesn't want Britain to be forced to choose between joining the euro and leaving the EU.'
Data to be release on Thursday:
Japan Tertiary industry index, machinery orders, domestic CGPI, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, U.K. RICS house prices, Germany CPI, HICP, Italy trade balance, EU CPI, U.S. CPI, Jobless claims, Net LT TIC flows, Philadelphia Fed survey and NAHB housing mrkt index.
AceTraderFx Jan 16: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 12110
16 Jan 2014 01:31GMT
As usd has staged a rebound fm 12040 (Mon), sug-
gesting the pullback fm 12175 has possibly ended
there, abv 12125 confirms this view, 12170 later.
Buy at market for this move with stop as indica-
ted n only below 12085 aborts bullishness, 12040.
STRATEGY : Buy at market
OBJECTIVE : 12170
STOP-LOSS : 12080
RES : 12125/12170/12255
SUP : 12085/12040/12000
AceTraderFx Jan 17: Dollar falls after lower than Fed's target inflation data
Market Review - 16/01/2014 22:17GMT
Dollar falls after lower than Fed's target inflation data
The greenback erased early gains and weakened broadly on Thursday after data showed U.S. consumer prices in December remained below the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target, supporting the central bank's pledge to keep rates at a record low.
During the day, although euro briefly dropped to 1.3586 against the dollar at Asian open, price climbed back to 1.3628 ahead of European opening on cross-buying of euro and then fell to 1.3597. The pair edged higher in early European trading as comments by European Central Bank governing council member Jens Weidmann lent support to the pair. Later, euro dropped again ahead of New York open but rebounded strongly from 1.3593 to 1.3649 as data showed U.S. inflation was still below Fed's 2% target.
ECB's Weidmann said on Thursday that 'agree with Draghi that have no reason to foster irrational inflationary fears; deflation risks in euro zone are limited; sees German economic upswing continuing this year and next; light at end of tunnel for most euro zone crisis countries; buying government bonds risks blurring line between monetary fiscal policy.'
U.S. December CPI came in at 0.3% m/m and 1.5% y/y, same as market's expectations.
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar extended gain above Tuesday's high of 104.70 in to session high at 104.92, cross-buying of yen capped intra-day gain there and price later fell to 104.66 and the further to 104.15 in New York morning after U.S. inflation data.
Cable went trough another day of choppy trading on Thursday as despite falling from Asian high of 1.6375 to a fresh 4-week low of 1.6316 in European morning in part due to cross-selling of sterling, price rebounded to 1.6384 in New York morning on dollar's broad based weakness and then tanked to 1.6322 before trading sideways.
In the commodity currencies, the Australian dollar tumbled to a fresh 3-1/2 year low of 0.8777 on Thursday after data showed that the economy shed 22,600 jobs in December, compared to expectations for new jobs growth of 10,000. A separate report showed Australia's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8%, in line with forecasts.
On the data front, Philadelphia Fed business conditions came in at 9.4 in January versus December 6.4. U.S. NAHB housing market index 56 in January versus revised 57 in December.
In other news, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said 'the Swiss National Bank's lid on the Swiss franc will remain at the centre of monetary policy for the foreseeable future, and the value of the safe-haven currency is still high."
Fridaywill see the release of Japan consumer confidence, U.K. retail sales, U.S. housing starts, building permits, industrial production, capacity utilization and University of Michigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Jan 17: Daily Outlook om Minor USD/CAD
DAILY USD/CAD OUTLOOK - 1.0934
16 Jan 2014 23:17GMT
Despite usd's retreat fm Wed's 4-yr peak at 1.09
92, y'day's bounce fm 1.0905 suggests pullback 'pos
sibly' ended, abv 1.0992 needed to yield 1.1020/30.
Hold long for gain twd 1.0992 n only below 1.08
79/80 wud risk stronger retracement twd 1.0843 sup.
STRATEGY : Long at 1.0926
POSITION: Long at 1.0926
OBJECTIVE :1.0990
STOP-LOSS : 1.0895
RES : 1.0992/1.1032/1.1061
SUP :1.0905/1.0879/1.0843
AceTraderFx Jan 17: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 12120
17 Jan 2014 07:08GMT
As usd has staged a rebound fm 12040 (Mon), sug-
gesting pullback fm 12275 (Dec) has ended there n
further gain to 12175 is envisaged.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated n only
below 12085 wud risk weakness to 12040.
STRATEGY : Long at 12110
POSITION : Long at 12110
OBJECTIVE : 12170
STOP-LOSS : 12080
RES : 12125/12175/12255
SUP : 12085/12040/12000
AceTraderFx Jan 20 : Euro falls to fresh 7-week low
Market Review - 17/01/2014 20:18GMT
Euro falls to fresh 7-week low
The single currency tumbled to a fresh 7-week low at 1.3517 on Friday due to renewed dollar's strength after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. industrial output, supporting the the view that U.S. economy is improving enough to keep the Federal Reserve's stimulus-reducing measures on track.
U.S. industrial output rose by 0.3%, its fastest clip in 3-1/2 years in the fourth quarter. U.S. New homes last month dropped 9.8%, the largest percentage decline since April, but housing starts were coming off a multi-year high in November. University of Michigan consumer confidence came in weaker-than-expected at 80.4 versus the economists' forecast of 83.5.
The greenback traded inside a tight range of 104.20-104.47 against the Japanese yen. However, the British pound rallied from intra-day low at 1.6309 to as high as 1.6459 after the release of unexpectedly strong U.K. retail sales data, which rose by 2.6% m/m and 5.3% y/y, better than the forecasts of 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y respectively with previous readings revised to 0.1% n 1.8%.
In other news, BoE's Broadbent said 'signs that headwinds facing wage growth are starting to abate; good reason to expect business investment growth to accelerate; highly unlikely we'll see anything like the relative price headwinds of past 4 years, opposite more likely; productive growth, euro zone will be key to determining UK recovery path.' Broadbent added later that "UK productivity doesn't look to have been good in H2 2013, but expect a pick-up."
Fed's Lacker says " tapering should continue and that recent data far fm what would be needed to change his view; deflecting monetary policy from price stability mission would be misguided."
Data to be released next week:
U.K. Rightmove house prices , China business climate, entrepreneur confidence, GDP, industrial production, fixed assets, retail sales, Japan capacity utilization, industrial production, Germany PPI on Monday. New Zealand, U.S financial markets are closed due to public holiday.
New Zealand CPI, Germany ZEW survey current situation, survey expectations, U.K. CBI industrial trend, Canada wholesale sales, U.S. IMF economic outlook on Tuesday.
Australia Westpac consumer confidence, CPI, Japan rate decision, all industry index, leading indicators, U.K. MPC minutes, claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, Avg. earnings, PSNCR, public sector Net knowing, Italy current account, Swiss Zew index, US Redbook retail sales, Canada BOC rate decision, on Wednesday.
New Zealand business manufacturing PMI, ANZ consumer confidence, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Japan BOJ monthly economic report, France business climate, France manufacturing PMI, service PMI, EU current account, manufacturing PMI, service PMI, consumer confidence, U.K. CBI distributive trades, Canada retail sales, U.S. Chicago Fed index, jobless claims, markit PMI, house price, US existing home sales, leading index on Thursday.
U.K. BBA mortgage approvals, Canada CPI on Friday.
AceTraderFx Jan 20 : Intraday Market Outlook on USD/JPY
INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK - 104.04
20 Jan 2014 02:04GMT
Although initial cross-buying of yen pushed dlr
below prev. sup at 104.15 (Thur) to 103.87 in Asia,
present rebound suggests erratic fall fm 104.92
(Thur) has possibly made a temp. low n choppy conso
lidation is seen, abv 104.21 wud yield 104.35/40.
Stand aside n sell dlr on further rise to 104.40
or buy on next decline to 103.80.