Daily Technical Analysis by Forexalt.com
Daily Technical Analysis by Forexalt.com
Early Technical Analysis for Monday July 31 2006
Full report with charts on Forexalt.com
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Early Technical Analysis: Yen is the Leader of growth in Asia
The catalyst of movements during the Asian tenders on Monday is the Japanese yen. The American hedge funds down to the present moment are its most active buyers. Last week the Japanese currency appeared is strongly resold. Now hedge's decrease level risks of the portfolios. And buy yen practically on all spectrum of the market. Not only against US dollar, but also against euro, the British pound sterling, the Australian dollar, etc. The Basic support for purchases of yen is rendered with positive expectations of revaluation of the Chinese yuan shortly time.
At the same time, the market at the moment estimates probability of increase of a discount rate in August of all in 25 %. Two more weeks back such probability, in opinion of traders, made more than 50 %. Probably, can change a situation the Payroll data which is planned to this Friday.
EUR
Weekly chart EUR trend – Range
Resistances
1.2771/78 (high 07.28.2006 at 1.2771 and 61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2860 (high 07.07.2006), 1.2971/78 (highs 05.15.2006 and 06.05.2006)
Supports
1.2705/06 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978 at 1.2705 and 61.8% retracement from 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2706), 1.2660/57 (50.0% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2660 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2657), 1.2560/55 (50.0% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2560 and 23.6% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2555)
GBP
Weekly chart GBP trend - Range
Resistances
1.8665/72 (61.8% retracement from 1.9023 to 1.8089 at 1.8665 and Thursday high 07.27.2006 at 1.8672), 1.8877 (high 06.05.2006), 1.8960/1.9023 (76.4% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8960 and high 05.17.2006 at 1.9023)
Supports
1.8595/1.8605 (61.8% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8595 and 23.6% retracement of 1.7229 to 1.9023 at 1.8605), 1.8500 (the bottom line of the “yellow” channel), 1.8445 (the bottom line of the “lime-green” channel)
CHF
Weekly chart CHF trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.2439/23 (61.8% retracement of 1.1287 to 1.4281 at 1.2439 and the 38.2% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2423), 1.2545 (high 07.25.2006), 1.2585/93 (50.0% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2585 and Wednesday high 07.19.2006 at 1.2593)
Supports
1.2285/83 (50.0% retracement from 1.1287 to 1.3284 at 1.2285 and 76.4% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2283), 1.2185/78(low 07.07.2006 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2178), 1.2015 (low 06.05.2006)
JPY
Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.40 (61.8% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.75/90 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.76 and 76.4% retracement of 119.37 to 108.96 at 116.90)
Supports
114.19 (50.0% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 112.95 (38.2% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96)
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Midday Technical Analysis for Friday July 28 2006
Full report with charts on Forexalt.com
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Midday Technical Analysis: The Yen becomes Stronger
The yen rises in price in relation to euro and dollar on speculation, that China will speed up process of revaluation of yuan in order to prevent trading sanctions from the party the USA in relation to the Chinese import.
Some policies the USA have accused China of deliberate deduction of yuan on a low level for support of export. It is necessary to expand trading a range of a rate of yuan and to allow it to speed up rates of a rise in price "in the near future" for reduction of positive balance of trading balance.
The basic attention of participants of the market on Friday will be involved with estimations of growth of gross national product the USA in second quarter It is expected, that rates of growth of economy in annual calculation have grown on 3.1 % that is lower than a parameter for I quarter in +5.6 %. Also the output of Consumer sentiment index from University Michigan becomes important.
Decrease in dollar can be limited to hearings, that the report leaving today will show growth deflator gross national product in the second quarter. It can serve as an occasion to conversations on increase of the rate of the Federal Reserve at August session.
EUR
Weekly chart EUR trend – Capped
Resistances
1.2705/06 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978 at 1.2705 and 61.8% retracement from 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2706), 1.2778/85 (61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2478 at 1.2785), 1.2860 (high 07.07.2006)
Supports
1.2660/57 (50.0% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2660 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2657), 1.2604/00 (low 07.25.2006 and the bottom line of the “sky-blue” channel at 1.2600), 1.2560/55 (50.0% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2560 and 23.6% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2555
GBP
Weekly chart GBP trend - Range
Resistances
1.8595/1.8605 (61.8% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8595 and 23.6% retracement of 1.7229 to 1.9023 at 1.8605), 1.8672 (Thursday high 07.27.2006), 1.8877 (high 06.05.2006)
Supports
1.8534 (high 07.25.2006), 1.8500, 1.8455/50 (the bottom line of the “yellow” channel at 1.8455 and falling resistance line from high 05.17.2007 at 1.9023 to high 06.05.2006 at 1.8850)
CHF
Weekly chart CHF trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.2439/23 (61.8% retracement of 1.1287 to 1.4281 at 1.2439 and the 38.2% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2423), 1.2545 (high 07.25.2006), 1.2585/93 (50.0% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2585 and Wednesday high 07.19.2006 at 1.2593)
Supports
1.2341/37 (61.8% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2341 and 38.2% retracement from 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2337), 1.2285/83 (50.0% retracement from 1.1287 to 1.3284 at 1.2285 and 76.4% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2283), 1.2185/78(low 07.07.2006 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2178)
JPY
Weekly chart JPY trend – Bullish
Resistances
116.80/90 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.80 and 76.4% retracement of 119.37 to 108.96 at 116.90), 117.38 (high 07.25.2006), 117.86 (Wednesday high 07.19.2006)
Supports
115.40/28 (61.8% retracement of 119.37 to 108.96 at 115.40 and today low 07.27.2006 at 115.28), 115.14/10 (61.8% retracement from 113.44 to 117.86 and ascending support line from low 05.17.2006 at 108.96 to low 07.10.2006 at 113.44 now at 115.10), 114.60 (ascending support line from low 06.02.2006 at 111.32 to low 07.10.2006 at 113.44 now at 114.60)