Forex Market Update - page 9

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hello do you agree that we post our annalyses with screenshot to argue?
 
Hello Kanaba , this topic is intended to give an overview of what happens in the market in fundamental terms. Happy pips.
 
Weekly Forex Update

The greenback traded on a firm footing last week, amidst geopolitical concern emanating from Ukraine and following the release of mostly positive US economic data.
Economic data indicated that the US housing numbers for April came in better-than-expected, highlighting that housing market demand has increased. The number of people filing for jobless benefits dropped to a seven year low in the week ended May 10, highlighting strength in the US labor market. Additionally, the NIFB small business optimism index advanced to its highest level since the financial crisis and the New York manufacturing index improved significantly in May. In a separate release, the US consumer price inflation rose to a 10 month high in April.
However, consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in May. The US retail sales growth also slowed in April, although it rose for the third consecutive month. The Philadelphia-area manufacturing sector activity expanded for the third consecutive month in May, although the reading fell compared to the previous month. Going ahead this week, the FOMC minutes will hold key as USD traders awaited fresh cues for further direction.
The Euro declined against the greenback, as disappointing growth data in the Euro-zone played on traders’ mind. Additionally, the bloc’s annual rate of inflation was in line with expectations at 0.7% in April, but still well below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2%, raising hopes of further ECB monetary action.
The Pound came under pressure, after the Bank of England (BoE) suppressed rising speculation of an early rise in interest rates to rein in the economy. The BoE Governor surprised market participants with a more dovish stance, insisting that economic conditions still warrant record low interest rates for some time.
The Yen rose against the US dollar, after the Japanese economy regained momentum in the first quarter of 2014. The nation’s GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.9%, as consumers shopped heavily before the planned sales tax increase comes into effect.
The Australian Dollar fell marginally, while the Loonie rose against the greenback last week. In New Zealand, the nation’s central bank in its half yearly financial stability report indicated that the financial system of the country remains sound and well placed to support the economy. However, the Governor, Graeme Wheeler cautioned that country’s house prices remained overvalued and that further policy tightening might depend on the strength of the Kiwi Dollar.

EUR USD
Last week, the EUR traded 0.47% lower against the USD and closed at 1.3694, after weak growth data from the Euro-zone and the member countries dented investor sentiment, adding pressure on the ECB to take additional steps to stimulate the recovery. Consumer prices data confirmed that inflation in the region remained significantly lower than the ECB’s benchmark target. Also, weaker-than-expected Euro-zone and German economic sentiment report prompted traders to move away from the Euro. Moreover, dovish comments from the Bundesbank President, Jens Weidmann, that the German central bank would support the ECB’s decision to unveil fresh policy measures to combat low inflation in the region, also proved a dampener for the single currency. This even as German economy expanded at a faster than anticipated pace. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3776 and a low of 1.3648. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3636, with the next support expected at 1.3578. The first resistance is at 1.3764, and the next at 1.3834.

Ahead this week, manufacturing and services PMI data from Europe will be on traders’ radar for gauging any signs of improvement in the region. Market participants would also focus on first quarter growth data from Germany.

GBP USD
In the last week, GBP traded 0.24% lower against the USD and closed at 1.6811, after the BoE Governor indicated that that Britain’s economic recovery is still in its early stages of recovery and does not warrant any immediate hike in interest rates. In its quarterly inflation report, the BoE lowered its expectations for unemployment in the nation while maintaining its growth forecast for the UK economy in 2014. Negative sentiment also fuelled after the nation’s jobless claims fell by 25,100 in April, versus market expectations for a drop of 30,000 and average wages excluding bonus registered a less-than-expected rise of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2014. However, the ILO unemployment rate in the UK declined to a five-year low level of 6.8% in the three months to March. The pair traded at a high of 1.6904 and a low of 1.6731 in the previous week. GBPUSD is expected to find its first support at 1.6727, with the next at 1.6642. Resistance exists first at 1.6900, and then at 1.6988.

In the week ahead, investors have their plate full with a raft of economic data including UK consumer price index, retail sales and first quarter GDP data. Additionally, minutes of the BoE’s latest monetary policy meeting will also gain market attention for gauging policymakers’ outlook towards the economy.

USD JPY
The USD traded 0.35% lower against the JPY over the past week, closing at 101.50. The Yen started the week on a negative note, after nation’s current account surplus narrowed, while trade deficit widened significantly in March, raising concerns over the economic recovery in the world’s third largest economy. On Wednesday, the Yen advanced after the nation’s GDP jumped by an annualized rate of 5.9% in the first quarter of 2014. However, consumer confidence fell for the fifth consecutive month in April. The domestic currency rose marginally on Friday, after data showed that industrial production in Japan gained more than market estimates in March, while capacity utilization also rose. During the week, the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, reiterated that the Japanese economy is on track to achieve its 2% inflation target. The pair traded at a high of 102.38 and a low of 101.31. The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.08, with the next support expected at 100.66. The first resistance is at 102.15, and the next at 102.80.

Yen traders are expected to remain busy this week, amid a barrage of domestic macroeconomic data including machinery orders, trade balance, leading economic and coincident indicators. Separately all eyes would also be on the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision.

USD CHF
USD traded 0.71% higher against the CHF and closed at 0.8927 in the last week, as positive US economic data supported the greenback. In Swiss economic news, Switzerland’s real retail sales rose at an annualized rate of 3.0% in March, surpassing expectations for a 2.3% gain and compared to a revised gain of 1.2% in February. Moreover, the ZEW survey on the economic expectations for the Swiss economy rose to a level of 7.4 in May, less than market expectations for a rise to a reading of 10.0. During the period, the pair traded at a high of 0.8961 and a low of 0.8857. The first support is at 0.8869, and the next at 0.8811. Resistance exists first at 0.8973, and then at 0.9019.

With a light economic calendar, Swissy traders would focus on global economic news for further guidance.

USD CAD
Last week, the USD traded 0.34% lower against the CAD and closed at 1.0861. During most the week, the Canadian Dollar was under pressure, after the Bank of Canada Deputy Governor, Lawrence Schembri, reiterated the central bank's stance that interest rates in the nation are likely to remain relatively low for an extended period of time to push inflation upward to its 2% target. Also, better-than-expected US data highlighted that the nation’s economy continues to recover at a steady pace in the second quarter of 2014, boosting the greenback. However, the Loonie recouped its losses on Friday, as crude oil, Canada’s largest export, rose on mounting tensions in Ukraine and amid concerns over possible oil supply disruptions from Libya. Also, deterioration in the US consumer sentiment weighed on the greenback. USDCAD traded at a high of 1.0928 and a low of 1.0849 in the previous week. The first support is at 1.0831, with the next at 1.0800. The first resistance is at 1.0910, while the next is at 1.0958.

This week, the Canadian retail sales data will be on investors’ radar. Besides, inflation reports from Canada would likely hold the key for determining the near term trend for the Loonie.

AUD USD
AUD traded marginally lower against the USD last week, and closed at 0.9360. Uninspiring data from its largest trading partner, China kept a tight lid on the Aussie. Industrial production and retail sales growth in China eased in April, while new lending remains below market expectations, giving strong signals that the nation may struggle to achieve its growth target in 2014. In Australia, the NAB Monthly Business Survey indicated that while business confidence rose to a reading of 6.0 in April, business conditions dipped slightly. Meanwhile, house price index rose in the first quarter, while home loans fell 0.9% (MoM) to a seasonally adjusted 52,013 numbers in March. Investment lending for homes declined 0.8%, following a 4.4% rise in February. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9411 and a low of 0.9325. The first support is at 0.9320, and the next at 0.9279. The first resistance is at 0.9406, and the next at 0.9451.

Apart from key macro releases from the US this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest policy meeting minutes and Chinese manufacturing PMI data will be on investors’ radar.

Gold
In the prior week, Gold traded 0.36% higher against the USD and closed at USD1293.46, as concerns over ongoing unrest in Ukraine supported gold’s safe haven appeal. However, gains were capped as the latest batch of upbeat employment and inflation data from the US economy increased bets that the Federal Reserve will fasten its stimulus tapering program, dampening the demand for the yellow metal. The yellow metal traded at a high of 1309.28 and a low of 1282.30 in the previous week. Gold is expected to find support at 1280.75 and the next at 1268.03. The first resistance is at 1307.73, while the next is at 1321.99.

In the week ahead, gold traders will keenly await economic data from the US and the FOMC minutes. Moreover, speeches from influential Fed policymakers will be keenly watched.

Crude Oil
Oil prices traded 2.03% higher against the USD in the last week and closed at USD102.02, as upbeat US data raised expectations for energy demand and the violence in Libya supported prices. Oil prices rose on Friday, amid concerns over output in Libya, where recently opened fields were closed again and violence erupted. Furthermore, armed groups attacked Libya's interim parliament and an airbase on Sunday, adding to the turmoil in the country. The ongoing tensions in Ukraine also provided some support to prices. Moreover, the US Energy Department reported surprisingly high demand for gasoline last week, and the Paris-based, International Energy Agency forecasted that global demand for crude oil would rise. On the US oil inventory front, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that crude oil stock rose by 912,000 barrels for the week ended May 9, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that crude oil inventories rose by 900,000 barrels. Oil traded at a high of 102.65 and a low of 99.99 in the previous week. Oil has its first major support at 100.46, while the next support exists at 98.89. The first resistance is at 103.12, and the next at 104.21.

In the week ahead, investors will focus on the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting, due on Wednesday, for insight on the central bank's view on the US economy. Also, events unfolding in Ukraine and Libya will be tracked by oil traders.

Good trades.
 

Market Update 20Mai14


This morning, the greenback is trading mostly higher against most of the major currencies.

The EUR is trading lower, extending its yesterday’s losses as ECB policymakers, including Yves Mersch and Ewald Nowotny predicted inflation rate in the Euro-zone to remain low for an extended period of time while Bundesbank slashed its growth estimate on Germany.

The GBP benefitted from a report that showed UK’s annual consumer inflation rate surpassed expectations and rose to 1.8% in April. Meanwhile, the UK Prime Minister, David Cameron echoed BoE’s view that booming housing sector would pose a risk to the nation’s recovery and assured that his government would make changes to its 'Help to Buy' programme to contain this risk.

The AUD lost ground after the minutes from the RBA latest policy meeting highlighted policymakers’ view for interest rate in Australia to remain low for some more time and as the RBA’s Assistant Governor, Guy Debelle projected the weakness in capital inflows to trigger depreciation in the Aussie.

In Yesterday’s New York session, the greenback traded higher against the key currencies, as the San Francisco Fed President, John Williams forecasted interest rate in the US to rise sometime in 2015 while highlighting his expectations for the Fed to refrain from altering the tapering pace of its QE programme unless for a dramatic change in economic outlook.


EUR USD

This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3698 against the USD, 0.08% lower from the New York close. In data, Germany’s producer price index unexpectedly fell 0.1% (MoM) in April while Italy’s industrial orders and sales rose to a seasonally adjusted 1.3% and 0.3%, respectively in March. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3715 and a low of 1.3706. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.11% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3709, as few ECB policymakers projected inflation rate in the Euro-zone to remain low for a prolonged period of time.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3672 and first resistance at 1.3730.


GBP USD

At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6834 against the USD, 0.12% higher from the New York close, benefitted from a report that showed consumer inflation rate in the UK rose at a faster than expected pace in April. However, UK’s producer prices and retail price index failed to match analysts’ expectations for last month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6822 and a low of 1.6812. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.14% lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6814.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6802 and first resistance at 1.6867.


USD JPY

The USD is trading at 101.32 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.15% lower from the New York close. Data released overnight showed that, Japan’s leading economic index fell to the lowest level in a year while its coincident index surpassed market estimates for March. Meanwhile Japan’s all industry activity index rebounded at a slower-than-expected pace in March. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 101.61 and a low of 101.43.  In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.32% higher against the JPY, and closed at 101.46.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.07 and first resistance at 101.58.


USD CHF

This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8924 against the Swiss Franc, a tad higher from the New York close. Earlier today, the SNB President, Thomas Jordan urged that proper measures should be undertaken in order to bring stability in the Swiss banking industry. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8931 and a low of 0.8921. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.15% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8922.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8906 and first resistance at 0.8942.


USD CAD

At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0889 against the CAD, 0.15% higher from the New York close. Traders look ahead to the releases of Canada’s wholesale sales data, for further cues in the Loonie. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0884 and a low of 1.0874. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.09% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0873, in a thin-holiday trading session.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0862 and first resistance at 1.0904.


AUD USD

The AUD is trading at 0.9270 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.65% lower from the New York close, following the release of the minutes from the RBA’s May policy meeting and after the RBA Dy. Governor, Guy Debelle cautioned that a slowdown in capital inflows could trigger a depreciation in the Aussie. Meanwhile, data showed that Australia’s CB leading indicator registered a flat reading in March. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9337 and a low of 0.9277. AUD traded 0.31% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9331.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9229 and first resistance at 0.9340.


Gold

At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1291.70 per ounce, 0.13% lower from the New York close, after the World Gold Council reported that gold demand in China and India, the world’s largest importers of gold, fell in the first quarter of 2014. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1294.90 and a low of $1287.80 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.75% lower, and closed at $1293.40. However, speculation for easing of gold-import norms in India kept the commodity’s losses in check.


Gold has its first support at $1284.43 and first resistance at $1302.33.


Silver

Silver is trading at $19.36 per ounce, marginally lower from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning, tracking losses in gold prices. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.40 and a low of $19.28. Silver traded 1.25% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.37.


Silver has its first support at $19.20 and first resistance at $19.60.


Crude Oil

At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $102.60 per barrel, slightly higher from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $102.76 and a low of $102.47. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.23% lower in the New York session, and closed at $102.56. However, fresh outburst of violence in Libya and lingering concerns on the Ukraine crisis weighed on the supply-outlook of the commodity.


It has its first support at $102.35 and first resistance at $102.97.


Economic Snapshot


UK consumer price index rose more than expectations in April

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index in the UK rose 0.4% in April, compared to a 0.2% rise recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting the consumer price index to rise 0.3% in April.


UK retail price index rose less than market estimates in April

On a monthly basis, the retail price index in the UK rose 0.4% to a level of 255.7 in April, compared to a 0.2% increase in the previous month. Markets were expecting the retail price index to rise 0.5% in April.


UK ONS house price index advanced in March

On an annual basis, the ONS house price index in the UK rose 8.0% in March, following a revised increase of 9.2% recorded in the preceding month.


UK output producer price index unexpectedly remained steady in April

The non-seasonally adjusted monthly output producer price index (PPI) in the UK remained steady (0.0%) in April, compared to a 0.2% rise recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting the output producer price index to rise 0.2% in April.


Germany’s producer price index declined in April

On a monthly basis, the producer price index in Germany fell 0.1% in April, compared to 0.3% fall in the previous month.


Italy’s industrial sales rebounded in March

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial sales in Italy rose 0.3% in March, following a revised decrease of 1.4% recorded in the preceding month. Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, the seasonally industrial orders in Italy climbed 1.3% in March, compared to a revised 3.2% decrease recorded in the previous month.


Japan’s all industry activity index rose less than anticipated in March

On a monthly basis, the all industry activity index in Japan rose 1.5% in March, less than market expectations of a 1.6% increase and compared to a 1.1% decrease recorded in the preceding month.


Japan’s final leading economic index fell in March

The leading economic index in Japan dropped to a level of 107.1 in March, compared to a revised level of 108.5 reported in the previous month. Meanwhile, the final coincident index rose to a level of 114.5 in March, compared to a level of 112.9 recorded in the previous month.


Australia’s CB leading index remained steady in March

The CB leading index in Australia remained steady in March, compared to a revised 0.2% rise recorded in the previous month.


RBA expects low rates to remain in place "for some time yet", indicated RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) May monetary policy meeting revealed that the current accommodative monetary policy continues to have the “expected effects” on economic activity and is expected to remain in place for some time yet.


Decline in capital inflows could further weaken the Australian dollar, indicated RBA Debelle

The RBA Assistant Governor, Guy Debelle, stated that capital inflow in Australia are likely to weaken in the period ahead, on the back of slowing mining investment which mostly foreign funded.


Good trades.


 
thank you. really good stuff
 

Thanks.

Green pips to all of us. 

 
Forex Market Update 21Mai14

This morning, the greenback is trading mostly lower against most of the major currencies, ahead of the FOMC minutes and a planned speech by the Fed Chief, Janet Yellen.
The GBP is trading higher against the USD, after UK’s retail sales rose more-than-expected in April and as the minutes of the BoE’s latest policy meeting fuelled expectations of an earlier-than-expected hike in the nation’s benchmark interest rate.  Yesterday, BoE’s Charlie Bean hinted that BoE’s exit from its stimulus measures would not be as easy as expected.
The JPY gained ground after the BoJ refrained from expanding its stimulus measures by keeping its policy measures intact at its policy meeting. Meanwhile, the BoJ Governor, Kuroda, noting the recent gains in the Yen, opined that there were absolutely no reasons for the Yen to strengthen.
Yesterday, in the New York session, the greenback traded mostly lower against the key currencies. Late Tuesday, Fed’s Charles Plosser indicated that the US economy currently is on a much firmer footing than it has been in several years while another Fed official, William Dudley projected interest rate in the nation to rise relatively slower based on the economy’s progress.  
In the Euro-zone, ECB’s Erkki Liikanen hinted that the central bank was open to non-traditional policy measures such as QE to fight deflation threats in the region.

EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3704 against the USD, a tad higher from the New York close. In economic news, Euro-zone’s current account surplus narrowed to a seasonally adjusted €18.8 billion in March. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3712 and a low of 1.3701. Yesterday, the EUR ended the New York session flat against the USD, and closed at 1.3701. An ECB policymaker, Erkki Liikanen, indicated that the central bank is willing to deploy measures like QE if deflation risks materialize in the region.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3686 and first resistance at 1.3723.

GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6887 against the USD, 0.29% higher from the New York close, as annual retail sales in the UK rose at the fastest pace in 10 years in April while minutes from the BoE’s May policy meeting hinted that UK policymakers were moving closer to vote for an earlier-than-expected interest rate hike in the economy. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6851 and a low of 1.6835. Yesterday, the British Pound traded a tad higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6838.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6832 and first resistance at 1.6933.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 100.98 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.31% lower from the New York close, as the latter advanced after the BoJ kept its monetary policy intact and indicated that it anticipates a modest recovery in the nation. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 101.41 and a low of 100.98. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.08% lower against the JPY, and closed at 101.30.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 100.72 and first resistance at 101.36.

USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8917 against the Swiss Franc, marginally lower from the New York close. Earlier today, data showed that the growth of M3 supply on an annual basis in the Swiss economy slowed in April after accelerating for three successive months. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8923 and a low of 0.8912. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded marginally lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8920.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8900 and first resistance at 0.8932.

USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0907 against the CAD, flat from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0915 and a low of 1.0903. Yesterday, the USD traded slightly higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0907, as the Loonie declined following data that showed Canada’s wholesale sales dropped unexpectedly in March, from a record-high level in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0884 and first resistance at 1.0924.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9241 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, slightly lower from the New York close, after the Westpac consumer confidence in Australia deteriorated to the lowest level since August 2011 in May and following a decline in iron ore prices. Meanwhile Australia’s wage price index rose at a steady rate in the Q1 of 2014. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9246 and a low of 0.9225. AUD traded 0.17% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9242.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9212 and first resistance at 0.9272.

Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1292.80 per ounce, 0.12% lower from the New York close, as data showed that holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust fell to the lowest level since December 2008 on Tuesday. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1296.30 and a low of $1291.60 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.47% higher, and closed at $1294.40, as a decline in the US equity markets bolstered the safe-haven appeal of the metal and after the World Gold Council indicated that global gold demand remained robust in the first quarter of 2014.

Gold has its first support at $1286.80 and first resistance at $1298.00.

Silver
Silver is trading at $19.43 per ounce, 0.13% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.50 and a low of $19.37. Silver traded 0.70% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.40, tracking gains in the prices of gold.

Silver has its first support at $19.27 and first resistance at $19.54.

Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $103.12 per barrel, 0.20% higher from the New York close, ahead of EIA weekly report on the US crude inventories. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $103.25 and a low of $102.78. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.34% higher in the New York session, and closed at $102.93 after the API reported a 10.3 million barrels fall in the weekly US crude supplies.

It has its first support at $102.40 and first resistance at $103.55.

Economic Snapshot

UK retail sales climbed more than expected in April
On a monthly basis, retail sales in the UK rose 1.3% in April, compared to a revised 0.5% rise recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting retail sales to rise 0.5% in April.

BoE MPC members voted unanimously to keep the monetary policy unchanged, indicated BoE minutes
The minutes of the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting held on 07 and 08 May 2014 indicated that the central bank officials voted unanimously to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and maintain the assets purchase programme at £375.0 billion.

Euro-zone current account surplus widened more than expected in March
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Euro-zone posted a current account surplus of €20.9 billion in March, compared to a revised surplus of €13.8 billion recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting the non-seasonal adjusted current account surplus to widen to €20.0 billion in March.

Swiss M3 money supply rose at a slower pace in April
On an annual basis, M3 money supply in Switzerland rose 8.0% in April, compared to a revised 9.1% rise recorded in the previous month.

BoJ kept its key interest rate and monetary policy unchanged
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) in its latest monetary policy statement stated that it has held its key interest rate in the range of 0.0 to 0.1% unchanged and has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy steady. The BoJ also kept its view on the economy unchanged by stating that it expects the nation to continue recovering at a moderate pace.

Japan’s economy to continue to recover moderately, indicated BoJ’s Kuroda
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, opined that the Japanese economic recovery is expected to continue at a moderate pace, with consumer price inflation likely to hit the central bank’s 2% target in 2015.

Australia Westpac consumer confidence declined in May
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the Westpac consumer confidence index in Australia dropped 6.8% in May to a reading of 92.9, compared to a 0.3% increase and a level of 99.7 reported in the previous month.

Australia’s wage price index rose in line with market estimates in Q1 2014
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the wage price index in Australia rose 0.7% in Q1 2014, in line with market expectations and following a similar increase recorded in the preceding quarter.

Good trades.
 
Weekly Forex Update

The US Dollar registered gains against most key currencies last week, as market participants drew strong encouragement from another set of positive US economic data. New home sales rose 6.4% to 433,000 units in April, after slumping in the previous two months. The latest PMI data showed that manufacturing activity in the US expanded at the fastest pace in three months, while the index of leading economic indicators posted a solid gain, rising for the third consecutive month in April.
Meanwhile, traders digested the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting minutes that offered little new insight on the direction of US monetary policy. The policy makers discussed plans to exit stimulus but gave no indication about when the Fed may hike its benchmark interest rate from near zero.
Moreover, ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the US escalated, after the former threatened to drop the dollar as a reserve currency if the US imposes sanctions on Russia over Ukraine. In a key development, preliminary results for the Presidential elections held in Ukraine on Sunday, suggested that Petro Poroshenko, who has close ties with Europe but also wants relations with Russia, may win.
The Euro came under pressure, after comments by few European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers gave indications that the central bank would add more stimulus to combat deflationary pressures. In a noteworthy development, rating agencies upgraded sovereign debt rating on Spain and Greece, reflecting an improvement in the overall fiscal situation.
The Pound rose against the greenback last week, following the release of better-than-expected economic data in the UK. Meanwhile, the minutes of the last policy meeting of the Bank of England (BoE) indicated that the policymakers unanimously decided to keep monetary policy unchanged. However, their views on the suitable path of policy varied, with some members supporting an early rate hike.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its monetary policy steady at the conclusion of its board meeting and gave a slightly more optimistic view of the Japanese economy.
The Aussie fell, after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meeting indicated that the central bank policy makers expect the benchmark interest rates to remain at the current low levels of 2.5% for a prolonged period of time.
Meanwhile in Canada, disappointing retail and wholesale sales data weighed on the domestic currency, adding to evidence that economic growth in the country slowed in the first quarter of 2014. However, the Lonnie moved away from recent lows against the greenback on Friday to finish flat for the week, after the Statistics Canada reported that the consumer price index for April rose at an annualized rate of 2.0%, easing the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) concerns on low inflation.

EUR USD
Last week, the EUR traded 0.47% lower against the USD and closed at 1.3629, following the release of downbeat economic data from the region and as dovish comments from few eminent ECB policymakers weighed on the common currency. The Euro also came under pressure, amid uncertainty over the outcome of the European Parliamentary elections. Economic data showed a larger-than-expected drop in the Ifo German business climate index in May. Also, the latest Markit PMI data revealed that manufacturing activity in France, Germany and the Euro-zone faced headwinds in May. Another set of data indicated that the Euro-zone economy grew less-than-expected in the first quarter. The ECB member, Yves Mersch indicated that inflation rate in the Euro-zone would remain low and hinted that the central bank may take action at its next policy meeting. Additionally, another member, Erkki Liikanen stated that the central bank is willing to deploy “non-traditional measures”, including an asset-purchase programme, if deflation risks increase significantly in the region. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3735 and a low of 1.3615. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3584, with the next support expected at 1.3540. The first resistance is at 1.3704, and the next at 1.3780.

Apart from economic data from the Euro-zone, market participants will closely monitor unemployment and retail sales data from Germany this week for insights into the overall health of the region’s largest economy.

GBP USD
In the last week, GBP traded 0.12% higher against the USD and closed at 1.6832, following the release of inspiring domestic economic data and as the upbeat assessment of the UK economy by the OECD kept the GBP supported. The UK GDP data revealed that the economy grew in the first quarter, in line with initial estimates, driven by consumer spending and business investment. Retail sales advanced in April, recording a strong start to the second quarter. The nation’s inflation rose for the first time in 10 months to an annual rate of 1.8% in April. Moreover, a survey by the Confederation of British Industry showed that Britain’s manufacturers remain positive about growth in the sector and forecasted output to increase in the coming months. The minutes of the Bank of England’s latest policy meeting released during the week, revealed that the policymakers were divided with regards to the timing of a revision to the benchmark interest rate. The pair traded at a high of 1.6923 and a low of 1.6802 in the previous week. GBPUSD is expected to find its first support at 1.6782, with the next at 1.6731. Resistance exists first at 1.6903, and then at 1.6973.

Ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the domestic consumer sentiment and crucial housing market reports for further direction.

USD JPY
The USD traded 0.46% higher against the JPY over the past week, closing at 101.97. Earlier during the week, the Japanese Yen advanced after the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, expressed confidence in the nation’s economic recovery. Furthermore, he shrugged off concerns on the recent appreciation in the Yen and indicated that the central bank’s easing measures are having a positive effect on pushing inflation to the BoJ’s 2.0% target. Additionally, on expected lines, the central bank maintained its key interest rate at record low levels. In economic news, machinery orders in Japan jumped, while the all industry activity index rose in March. The coincident index advanced more-than-expected to a reading of 114.5 in March. Japan’s total merchandised trade deficit shrank 7.8% (YoY) in April. Moreover, the BoJ, in its monthly economic survey, projected that the Japanese economy would continue to recover at its current moderate pace. The pair traded at a high of 102.02 and a low of 100.82. The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.19, with the next support expected at 100.40. The first resistance is at 102.39, and the next at 102.80.

During the later course of the week, market participants would eye the Japanese consumer price inflation data which could prove a key determinant for the Yen.

USD CHF
USD traded 0.35% higher against the CHF and closed at 0.8958 in the last week, as positive US economic data supported the dollar. In a key development, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) President, Thomas Jordan, stated that the Swiss economy still remains vulnerable to risks posed by a potential failure of its two biggest banks, UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG. On the economic front, the Swiss National Bank’s M3 money supply advanced 8.0% (YoY) in April, weaker than the 9.1% rise seen in March. During the period, the pair traded at a high of 0.8973 and a low of 0.8897. The first support is at 0.8912, and the next at 0.8867. Resistance exists first at 0.8988, and then at 0.9019.

Apart from external cues, traders would keep an eye this week on Swiss economic data which includes trade, UBS consumption and KOF leading indicator. Also on traders radar would be Swiss first quarter growth data.

USD CAD
Last week, the USD traded flat against the CAD and closed at 1.0861. Earlier during the week, the Loonie came under pressure after the Canadian wholesale and retail sales unexpectedly declined in March, adding to a string of disappointing data. According to the Statistics Canada, retails sales recorded a 0.1% drop in March versus market expectations for a 0.3% gain, with sales dipping to C$41.07 billion ($37.68 billion) for the month. The soft retail sales data, followed weak wholesale sales that unexpectedly declined 0.4% in March, missing forecasts for a 0.4% gain. However, the Canadian Dollar firmed against the greenback on Friday, after domestic annual inflation rose as expected to the central bank's target of 2% in April, suggesting that a rate cut by the BoC is off the table. USDCAD traded at a high of 1.0943 and a low of 1.0848 in the previous week. The first support is at 1.0825, with the next at 1.0789. The first resistance is at 1.0920, while the next is at 1.0979.

Following the release of uninspiring retail sales and wholesale trade data last week and lackluster exports data earlier, market participants would keenly wait Canada’s March GDP data this week that would throw light on the state of nation’s economy.

AUD USD
AUD traded 1.38% lower against the USD last week, and closed at 0.9231, after the RBA Assistant Governor, Guy Debelle, cautioned that the Australian Dollar would depreciate due to weak capital inflows in the Australian economy, amid slowdown in mining investment. Meanwhile, in the minutes of the RBA’s latest policy meeting, the central bank reinforced its plans to keep interest rate at the current levels for the foreseeable future. In economic news, the CB leading indicator registered a flat reading in March, while the Westpac consumer confidence index slipped to a reading of 92.9 in May, the lowest level since August 2011. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9369 and a low of 0.9207. The first support is at 0.9169, and the next at 0.9107. The first resistance is at 0.9331, and the next at 0.9431.

Going forward, the Westpac leading index, HIA new home sales and private sector data scheduled this week will be on investors’ radar.

Gold
In the prior week, Gold traded 0.07% lower against the USD and closed at USD1292.56, as better-than-expected US data added to signs of a recovery, pushing the greenback higher. On Friday, a noted broking house reiterated its bearish outlook on the yellow metal, citing strength in the US economy and forecasted average 2014 gold prices of $1,261 per ounce and of $1,163 for 2015. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine remained in focus, as Ukraine held its crucial Presidential election on Sunday 25. Exit poll results showed a decisive win for pro-European candidate, Petro Poroshenko, raising hopes of political stability in Ukraine. The yellow metal traded at a high of 1305.59 and a low of 1283.51 in the previous week. Gold is expected to find support at 1282.18 and the next at 1271.81. The first resistance is at 1304.26, while the next is at 1315.97.

Ahead this week, investors will focus on the revised first quarter GDP data in the US for further indications on the strength of the nation’s economy.

Crude Oil
Oil prices traded 2.28% higher against the USD in the last week and closed at USD104.35, as conflicts in Libya continued to keep major oilfields closed and amid lingering concerns between Russia and the West/Ukraine during the week. However, tensions eased slightly over Ukraine following a Presidential election on Sunday, and the preliminary results highlighted a clear win for pro-European candidate, Petro Poroshenko. Meanwhile, better-than-expected manufacturing PMI data from the US and China provided strong support to crude oil prices, boosting optimism for future oil demand growth from world’s top two economies.  Oil prices also rose after the Energy Information Administration reported a 7.2 million barrels drop in the US crude supplies for the week ended May 16, while the American Petroleum Institute reported that the crude inventories dropped by 10.3 million barrels. Oil traded at a high of 104.50 and a low of 102.03 in the previous week. Oil has its first major support at 102.75, while the next support exists at 101.16. The first resistance is at 105.22, and the next at 106.10.

In the upcoming week, oil traders would pay close attention to US durable goods orders, consumer sentiment and GDP data coupled with outcome of the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) meeting for further directions to the oil prices.

Good trades.
 

Market Info always accurate. Support and Resistance on point'.

Thanks. All the best 

 

Forex Market Update 29Mai14


This morning, the greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies, ahead of the US first-quarter GDP and weekly jobless claims data.

The JPY gained ground against the USD, following an overnight declined in the US 10-year bond yields, thus narrowing the US-Japan interest differentials. Also, BoJ’s Sayuri Shirai stated that the Japanese economy might need the central bank’s stimulus measures well beyond 2015 as the economy would require more than two-years to achieve its 2.0% inflation target.

The AUD rose against the USD after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that firms planned to spend more-than-expected in the year to June 2015, even as capital spending in the first-quarter of 2014 declined 4.2%.

In Yesterday’s New York session, the USD extended its previous session gains and traded higher against major counterparts. 

Late Wednesday, in an interview, a BoE policymaker Martin Weale opined that the BoE needs to start its process of hiking interest rates sooner than later to avoid painful hikes in the future.

In the Euro-zone, the ECB, in its semi-annual Financial Stability Review, cautioned against the risk of a reversal of “fickle” capital inflows in the region while an ECB policymaker, Yves Mersch indicated that the central bank could use a combination of policy tools to tackle low inflation in the economy.


EUR USD

This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3619 against the USD, 0.19% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3621 and a low of 1.3591. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.20% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3593. Late Wednesday, ECB’s Vitor Constancio expressed concerns on the risks arising from a prolonged period of low inflation in the economy while another policymaker, Yves Mersch hinted that the ECB could use conventional as well as unconventional measures to fight deflation threats.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3593 and first resistance at 1.3638.


GBP USD

At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6725 against the USD, 0.07% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6743 and a low of 1.6701. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.19% lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6714. The CBI, in its monthly survey, reported that retail sales in the UK economy grew at a slower pace in May. A BoE policymaker, Martin Weale urged the central bank to hike its interest rates sooner than later to avoid painful hikes in the future. 


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6687 and first resistance at 1.6768.


USD JPY

The USD is trading at 101.53 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.30% lower from the New York close, after US Treasury 10-year yields declined to a nine-month low overnight. Early morning, BoJ’s Sayuri Shirai opined that the central bank would have to extend its stimulus measures beyond 2015. Separately, data showed retail sales in Japan dropped at the fastest pace in nearly 14 years last month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 101.85 and a low of 101.53. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.14% higher against the JPY, and closed at 101.83.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.33 and first resistance at 101.86.


USD CHF

This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8964 against the Swiss Franc, 0.22% lower from the New York close, in a subdued trading session on account of an Ascension Day holiday in Switzerland. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8985 and a low of 0.8966. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.14% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8984.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8953 and first resistance at 0.8983.


USD CAD

At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0864 against the CAD, 0.07% lower from the New York close. Traders keenly await the release of Canada’s current account data for further cues in the Canadian Dollar. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0879 and a low of 1.0859. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.14% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0872.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0844 and first resistance at 1.0886.


AUD USD

The AUD is trading at 0.9300 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.71% higher from the New York close, after the Australian Bureau of Statistics projected a brighter spending-outlook in Australia for fiscal 2015 despite a fall in capital expenditure in the first quarter of 2014. Additionally, the HIA reported a 2.9% rise in Australian new home sales in April. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9315 and a low of 0.9228. AUD traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9234.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9236 and first resistance at 0.9340.


Gold

At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1253.60 per ounce, 0.47% lower from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1259.90 and a low of $1250.90 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.51% lower, and closed at $1259.50, amid broad gains in the US Dollar. Meanwhile, mounting expectations for the newly elected President, Petro Poroshenko would ease geo-political tensions in Ukraine further weighed on the demand prospect of the safe-haven metal.


Gold has its first support at $1247.23 and first resistance at $1263.63.


Silver

Silver is trading at $18.92 per ounce, 0.66% lower from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.08 and a low of $18.83. Silver traded 0.31% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.04.


Silver has its first support at $18.78 and first resistance at $19.10.


Crude Oil

At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $102.85 per barrel, 0.20% lower from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $103.07 and a low of $102.68. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.89% lower in the New York session, and closed at $103.07, after the API reported a more-than-expected 3.5 million barrels rise in the US crude inventories last week. However, lingering uncertainty over Libya’s supply outlook, kept the commodity’s losses in check.


It has its first support at $102.20 and first resistance at $103.93.


Economic Snapshot


UK Lloyds business barometer dropped in May

The Lloyds business barometer in the UK fell to 41.0 in May from a level of 66.0 reported in the previous month.


Spain’s final GDP rose less than the preliminary estimate in Q1 2014

On an annual basis, the final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Spain rose 0.5% in Q1 2014, less than the preliminary estimate of a 0.6% rise and compared to a decline of 0.2% recorded in Q4 2013.


Australia HIA new home sales rose at a faster pace in April

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) reported that on a monthly basis, new home sales in Australia climbed 2.9% in April, compared to a 0.2% rise in the previous month.


Australia’s private capital expenditure declined more than expected in the Q1 2014

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, private capital expenditure in Australia fell 4.2% in Q1 2014, compared to a revised 4.5% decrease recorded in the previous quarter. Markets were expecting Australia’s private capital expenditure to decline 1.9% in the Q1 2014.


Good trades.


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