Most sucessful?

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Does anyone have a opinion on which EA on this forum is the most successful? I am new to the forum -----there are just so many it is difficult to find the good ones-----of course I am not saying that they are all good. Thanks for all the hard work you guys put into this.
 
Hill:
Does anyone have a opinion on which EA on this forum is the most successful? I am new to the forum -----there are just so many it is difficult to find the good ones-----of course I am not saying that they are all good. Thanks for all the hard work you guys put into this.
I would be most surprised if there were ANY good ones. Any that I have seen have been amateurish at best in their coding. I have not seen any that are actually profitable and that I would trade real money with. Having said that, I have only looked at a few.
 
None of them that I have looked at appear to be any good but they are fun to play with.
 
dabbler:
I would be most surprised if there were ANY good ones. Any that I have seen have been amateurish at best in their coding. I have not seen any that are actually profitable and that I would trade real money with. Having said that, I have only looked at a few.

Thanks for the comment----helps tremendously
 
Ickyrus:
None of them that I have looked at appear to be any good but they are fun to play with.
 
Thanks for the comment----wish I could write code------see some that just need a little tweek
 
Hill:
Thanks for the comment----wish I could write code------see some that just need a little tweek

Well wishing is nice, but doesn't achieve much.

You could of course learn https://www.forex-tsd.com/lessons/?pp=20&daysprune=-1

It doesn't even cost anything to read the manual, or do the lessons.

 

People who can give concise instrutions and are reasonable with logic can program. With all the help we are willing to give people in this forum, learning it, is really easy.

 
Hill:
Does anyone have a opinion on which EA on this forum is the most successful? I am new to the forum -----there are just so many it is difficult to find the good ones-----of course I am not saying that they are all good. Thanks for all the hard work you guys put into this.

Have a look at this one

https://www.mql5.com/en/code/7150

Now the comments are in Russian, and if you are using a 5 digit broker you will need to change the TP and SL levels by a factor of 10, and provided you neglect the OrderModify errors in the journal and only simulate EURUSD on H1 for 2009 you will be very happy with the exceptional 5.5 profit factor. HURRAH! Of course if you simulated it for 2008 you would have achieved a profit factor of 0.28 and since it trades without a stop loss the losing trade could have killed your account, but don't let me put you off.

 
dabbler:

Have a look at this one

https://www.mql5.com/en/code/7150

Now the comments are in Russian, and if you are using a 5 digit broker you will need to change the TP and SL levels by a factor of 10, and provided you neglect the OrderModify errors in the journal and only simulate EURUSD on H1 for 2009 you will be very happy with the exceptional 5.5 profit factor. HURRAH! Of course if you simulated it for 2008 you would have achieved a profit factor of 0.28 and since it trades without a stop loss the losing trade could have killed your account, but don't let me put you off.



Thanks again. Lot to learn if I am going to write that code.
 
Hill:


Thanks again. Lot to learn if I am going to write that code.

You might want to consider the spreadsheet that I have attached for you and for the benefit of other members of this forum before you start writing code or looking for the best EA. This is something that you rarely see in beginning books on Forex and its a shame because its probably one of the main reasons the majority of traders lose all their money, regardless if they trade manually or use an EA.

What I am talking about is a concept called the expectation value. You asked what is the most successful EA. Well, its any EA that generates a high expectation value.

Trading, as any other reward/risk activity, involves the laws of probability and there is no way getting around this. In order for you to win in the long term you need to have a manual trading "system" or an EA that has a high expectation value. If you don't, the laws of probability dictate you will wipe out your account with absolute certainty.

Open up the attached spread sheed and you will notice two graphs. The one on the left is a graph of an equity curve for a fixed amount of risk that you incur for every trade. The one on the right is the equity graph for trading when your risk is a per centage of your equity. The one on the left essentially shows a linear growth and the one on the right shows a non-linear result, the result of the magic of compounding.

Here is how you use the spreadsheet. Every green square in the spreadsheet is a data entry square. You input data here and only in the green squares. The first one in the upper left is the beginning equity of your account. The second is the amount of risk you make as a per centage of your equity for every trade you make. The next is the payoff which will be explained shortly. Next, you have the per cent win probability of every trade. Finally, you have the number of trades. The fixed $ risk square shows you how much you risk if you kept that risk the same for every trade. The fixed $ gain shows how much you would make for every winning trade for a fixed amount of risk. Note, the the gain is simply the risk times the payoff. The yellow squares show that when you hit cntl c, the spreadsheet will generate a new sequence of trades. The figures directly above the graphs show the increase or decrease from your initial equity and thus, the return on investment.

For the default values in the spread sheet, you can see that if your EA gave you the results shown, your account would grow very quickly. Experiment around with different values and you can see how the equity curves change. What you see on this spread sheet is a graphically representation of the expectation value. (It's essentially what you get when you use the strategy tester with a lot more detailed information.)

Now, here's a simplified concrete example. Suppose you are ready to write a scalping EA. Lets assume you have a beginning account of 10,000 as shown. Also assume you will only risk one percent of your equity on every trade. (Highly recommended by many successful traders.) Assume you use 1 lot of the EUR/USD which has a spread of 2 pips. Now, if you are going to scalp you want to get in and out very quickly. If you want to get out when you account draws down 100.00 then you must get out when the trade has moved 8 pips against you. (8 x 1 lot x 10.00 per lot plus 2 x 1 lot x 10.00 per lot = 100.00). Since you are scalping you want to take a profit very quickly. Many scalpers exit when the trade makes about 10 pips. Thats a profit of 100.00. (10 x 1 lot x 10.00). Now whats the payoff? It's simply the amount you can make divided by the risk or your reward/risk ratio. In this case it's 1.

Now put this one in the spread sheet under payoff. With the default of 50 per cent for the probability of winning you get graphs that are not that impressive. Keep hitting cntrl c and you will see how the graph changes for every new sequence of trades. For a better expectation value, try 60 per cent for your winning probability. With a 60 per cent win probabiliy, your equity curves will have more of a diagnoal slope from the lower left to the upper right. This is what you want.

So, when you create your EA with the given parameters to get the the equity curves or expectation values displayed, your scalping EA must make a winning trade every 6 out of a total of 10 trades. Can this be done? Well, you'll have to learn how to code and test you EA by back testing and forward testing to know.

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