If I can now just figure out what happened near the end of 2006 till now?
I've designed this EA. It's a nice low draw down curve UNTIL near the end of 2006. Everything all goes to hell. I'm curious what psychological difference there is for these years. From 2000 to near the end of 2006, great curve, great ROI. From the end of 2006 to present, the system crashes. Almost as if there was a fundamental change in the market's trading strategy. Baffles the hell out of me.
Here is the report from 2000 to 2008, notice the obvious crash, this is near the end of 2006:
Here is the report from 2000 to 6/1/2006:
If anybody is interested in trying to crack the code, if there is one, or even have helpful suggestions, It would be greatly appreciated, and obviously we'll both benefit from it.
See my post (https://forum.mql4.com/18730) for similar result and question...
jdc
I've designed this EA. It's a nice low draw down curve UNTIL near the end of 2006. Everything all goes to hell. I'm curious what psychological difference there is for these years. From 2000 to near the end of 2006, great curve, great ROI. From the end of 2006 to present, the system crashes. Almost as if there was a fundamental change in the market's trading strategy. Baffles the hell out of me.
Here is the report from 2000 to 2008, notice the obvious crash, this is near the end of 2006:
Here is the report from 2000 to 6/1/2006:
If anybody is interested in trying to crack the code, if there is one, or even have helpful suggestions, It would be greatly appreciated, and obviously we'll both benefit from it.
I can have a look at your code if you send it to gpwr9k95@yahoo.com. From your results, it appears to be a scalper. Which currency pair and timeframe does it use? Does it have restrictions on trading times? I know a few scalpers that stopped working in 2006. It had something to do with the currency prices. As an example, check these EURGBP 1M prices from the MQ server before and after 09-29-06 14:20. Notice the High-Low range before and after.
I can have a look at your code if you send it to gpwr9k95@yahoo.com. From your results, it appears to be a scalper. Which currency pair and timeframe does it use? Does it have restrictions on trading times? I know a few scalpers that stopped working in 2006. It had something to do with the currency prices. As an example, check these EURGBP 1M prices from the MQ server before and after 09-29-06 14:20. Notice the High-Low range before and after.
On 19-Sep-06, you will find the exact same change on EURUSD.
My EA was a scalper. After hours of investigating this, I concluded that a server side software change was made to disallow scalping (those previous highs and lows are just too tempting). I hadn't looked at EURGBP, but I find it too coincidental that the same change occured in the same month...
jdc
On 19-Sep-06, you will find the exact same change on EURUSD.
My EA was a scalper. After hours of investigating this, I concluded that a server side software change was made to disallow scalping (those previous highs and lows are just too tempting). I hadn't looked at EURGBP, but I find it too coincidental that the same change occured in the same month...
jdc
You can probably tune the input parameters of your scalper to make it work again, depending what indicators it uses.
You can probably tune the input parameters of your scalper to make it work again, depending what indicators it uses.
It doesn't use any indicators, it just works "tickwise," filters out +/- 1pip changes, and looks for 2pip to 4pip gains. From July-05 to July-06 EURUSD it goes from $10k to $1.0 billion, and then tanks (as in the example above) on 19-Sep-06 and beyond.
jdc
From technical analysis, there are bull traps and bear traps. In this case, I call it newbie, or novice, trap.
Just looking to your results, I see that modeling quality is 90%, which might be considered very good. But it isn't. It just means that you are using a scalp strategy on bigger timeframe. At older dates, the tester doesn't have from the minute timeframe, so it has to guess a lot (read about how prices are obtained when history is not available). The result is that the tester opens and closes trades at price levels that didn't really happened - on the prices it had to generate. To assert this, after testing try observe the profitable trades on the minute chart.
As long as testing time advances, the TESTER finds more precise prices to use from 1min, 5 min... so, it has to guess less prices. This way trades are made at more real prices, and therefore, you start to see more umprofitable ones.
All in all, it's a matter of time resolution. You are trying to model a behaviour that happens at the minute frame, but using a base scale of hour or alike.
Don't blame the TESTER for this issue. It's just a matter of available history adequate for your pip trading EA...
So,
if you want develop such kind of EAs, you should always test using the minute Period. If your code needs to use indicators from higher time frames, you must use function based, instead of array based indicators:
Close[] --> iClose(...)
High[] --> iHigh(...)
....
Using the minute period for testing, you will get modeling quality of 25% (which is the best you can obtain). That is, 1 minute and four available points (H,L,O,C) yields a quality = 1/4 = 25%.
Additionally, if you only use ticks, then you cannot rely on the TESTER, as it uses the least timeframe only, which is 1 minute period and its four points. Your only option is to test the EA live on a demo account and as you observe its behavior, you can change or improve it.
Joao
It doesn't use any indicators, it just works "tickwise," filters out +/- 1pip changes, and looks for 2pip to 4pip gains. From July-05 to July-06 EURUSD it goes from $10k to $1.0 billion, and then tanks (as in the example above) on 19-Sep-06 and beyond.
jdc
If you use EURUSD, the lowest fixed spread you can get is 2 pips. I am surprized that 1-3 pips profit target gives so much profit. I saw your other thread and was impressed with the profit factor, drawdown and the % of profitable trades. It is a shame that your EA stopped working. If you don't mind sharing the code of your EA, I can try to fix it for 2007 and 2008. My email is gpwr9k95@yahoo.com.
If you use EURUSD, the lowest fixed spread you can get is 2 pips. I am surprized that 1-3 pips profit target gives so much profit. I saw your other thread and was impressed with the profit factor, drawdown and the % of profitable trades. It is a shame that your EA stopped working. If you don't mind sharing the code of your EA, I can try to fix it for 2007 and 2008. My email is gpwr9k95@yahoo.com.
I attached the source file to the other post.. it's not commented though. Take a look at it, and then let me know if you have questions.
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
You agree to website policy and terms of use
I've designed this EA. It's a nice low draw down curve UNTIL near the end of 2006. Everything all goes to hell. I'm curious what psychological difference there is for these years. From 2000 to near the end of 2006, great curve, great ROI. From the end of 2006 to present, the system crashes. Almost as if there was a fundamental change in the market's trading strategy. Baffles the hell out of me.
Here is the report from 2000 to 2008, notice the obvious crash, this is near the end of 2006:
Here is the report from 2000 to 6/1/2006:
If anybody is interested in trying to crack the code, if there is one, or even have helpful suggestions, It would be greatly appreciated, and obviously we'll both benefit from it.