Sergey Golubev / 个人资料

EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Shorts preferred following Shooting Star confirmation

• Potential target offered by yearly low near 1.3500 figure
• Sellers emerged at the psychologically significant 1.3700 handle as suggested

As suggested in yesterday’s candlesticks report signs of weakness for the EUR/USD presented a selling opportunity. The Shooting Star formation on the daily chart is hinting at a potential reversal as buyers appear to have lost their grip on the pair. A potential target is offered by the 1.3500 handle, near the 2014 low and would likely prompt some buying support.

Italy government staggers .. Sound familiar ?

Negative interest rates on deposits

Euro has felt the full message came from the ECB yesterday stating that at least one group , probably the " Latin " is the introduction of negative interest rates on deposits of commercial banks . It's actually way more likely now that the German DC treated with cold bazooka program purchases of government bonds to great effect , though nowhere in practice by the central bank . In addition, a conflict between Letta , the current prime minister , and Renzi , big names in the party central Italian government coalition offered distant echoes of post- Monti uncertainty at a time when the European crisis was an active concern . But markets are almost as calm as after a session of meditation , while being fast implementation optimistic information .

Euro gradually regained first, then accelerated altitude due to hopes that negotiations will avoid early elections. An alternative would be to give Letta simply place Renzi , mayor of Florence. Italy, with the highest public debt / GDP in the Euro zone after Greece needs further reforms and postponing plus uncertain outcome of elections would waste precious time. A change of perspective and sentiment in global markets could attract speculative interest again selling Euro , while forcing the ECB to intervene , what weapons they find available . The situation is calm for the moment .

In short : In Italy the current government is fragile , threatened with dissolution of divergence between Letta and Renzi . But market reaction to meeting a solution indicates that investors see the bright side .

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GBPUSD - Elliott Waves :
update the expanding Ending Diagonal ..

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Pound break barriers during the governor's speech

Unemployment probably break the target set by the BoE in the quarter ending in January , Governor of the Bank of England announced . Canadian home , Mark Carney helped by its comments Massive pound to appreciate against the dollar and the Euro . A waiver of the interest rate in 2015 is now credible , although most of the speech he spoke of unused capacity in the economy, which is GDP by 1-1.5 % below the potential , and requires keeping interest rates at lower levels . In the future , raising rates ( which attract buyers pounds , but hinder lending ) will be gradual and will most likely stop far below the average of 5% before the crisis. Regarding " orientation guide " , it was amended to include the intention to work unused resources in the economy over the next two to three years . Markets have understood that the situation has changed , and the Bank of England is in the most favorable position for the first race start raising interest rates. Effect of modified message was an advance of about 0.7 % sterling . Tie long-term performance will be given by the respective economies . Anticipatory euphoria gave their speculative gains slight keeping their mission will not be easy but you will understand that the dollar has a powerful ally : the gradual reduction of QE program .

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In Congress , Yellen is pleased investors

Continuity and possible redefinition of QE reduction are key themes

Measuring steps to reduce QE is the main scenario presented by Janet Yellen before Congressman tion, which had a chance to ask questions for the first time since taking office of President of the Fed . It seems good enough growth to predict economic recovery , she said , but the program does not have a pre- determined course . If a change needs to go, determined either by a significant deterioration in growth estimates or dangerous slowing inflation will move to action. Position apparently balanced blades wind blew investors and "helped " dollar contract. One detail still seems relevant : data from the labor market in January was , according JY affected by weather : thus seems likely to continue Fed rate cut 10 billion dollars QE program every " opportunity " . Current trend of EURUSD and US500 does not seem to be disturbed for a while . Certainly not for a long horizon .

EUR/USD Technical Strategy:

Recent Piercing Line candlestick pattern resulted in 5 straight days of gains
Overhanging resistance at 1.3700 may cap further gains and present selling opportunity
The recent Piercing Line candlestick formation has continued to result in further gains for EUR/USD. The absence of a bearish reversal pattern leaves a bullish bias for the pair. However, resistance looming overhead at the 1.3700 handle may leave further upside potential for the Euro limited.

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Another and not 'so scary' graphics and vision of DJIA, using logarithmic differentiation and comparing with 1929 (graph source: Stockcharts). By the way, if we compare the crisis of 1929 and 2008, which was quite done at that time (2008), the logic is repeat the same period of growth after such crisis.