XAU DumpRisk + FVG Dashboard v1 (MQL5)

XAUUSD DumpRisk + FVG Dashboard (MT5/MQL5) — Programmer Specification (v1)

1) Objective

Build a standalone dashboard module for XAUUSD (preferably an Expert Advisor, an indicator is also acceptable) that evaluates dump (sharp drop) risk and displays the result directly on the chart (on-screen display).

The module MUST NOT open, modify, or close trades.
The module ONLY calculates and displays:

• DumpRisk % (0–100)

• Mode: NORMAL / SAFE / NO_TRADE

• Top reasons (2–3) explaining why risk is high (based on the largest contributing categories)

• Lock (if a hard trigger forces NO_TRADE for a defined period)

2) Critical Quality Requirements (MUST)

• 100% compatible with MT5 / MQL5

• 0 errors, 0 warnings in MetaEditor

• Robust CopyRates() / CopyBuffer() usage:

  • Always check return values

  • Fail gracefully (no crashes)

  • If data is missing, show “N/A” for affected parts and keep the module running

• CPU optimized:

  • When ComputeOnlyOnNewM5Bar = true , compute only on a new M5 bar

  • FVG (H1/H4) recalculation only when needed (new H1/H4 bar + caching)

  • No unnecessary work in OnTick()

• Clean, readable, clearly commented code:

  • Functions separated by responsibility (cache, features, scoring, UI)

  • Explicit score mapping and clamping/normalization logic

• All thresholds, weights, values, and settings MUST be input parameters (tunable directly in MT5, not hardcoded)

3) “Dump-Only” Philosophy (Key Behavior)

This dashboard is designed for BUY-only / grid / averaging systems on XAUUSD.
It must not punish normal sideways markets or mild BUY trends.

• Chop / consolidation should remain NORMAL (very low risk).

• Mild BUY trend should remain NORMAL.

• Risk should rise meaningfully only when clear bearish dump preparation appears:

  • Bearish impulse on M1

  • Break of structure down (BOS) on M5

  • Nearby bearish FVG below price (H1/H4)

  • Volatility chaos

  • Toxic spread conditions

  • Session acts only as a minor amplifier, never as the primary trigger.

4) INPUTS (Everything Adjustable in MT5)

4.1 Global Thresholds and Modes

4.2 Category Weights (Contributions to 0–100)

All must be inputs and the system must remain correct if changed:

    

        

            

        
    


    

        input int W_Volatility      = 25;
input int W_Micro           = 25;
input int W_Divergence      = 20;
input int W_Spread          = 15;
input int W_Session         = 10;
input int W_Structure       = 10;

input int W_FVG_ContribMax  = 20;   // Max FVG contribution to final score

    

Developer requirement: implement clamping and normalization so the final score always remains 0–100 even if weights are modified.

5) Modules / Architecture

A) DataCache

• Safe CopyRates() for: M1, M5, H1, H4

• Track lastBarTime for M5/H1/H4 (and M1 for spread buffer updates)

• If ComputeOnlyOnNewM5Bar = true , compute only on a new M5 bar

B) FeatureEngine

Compute category sub-scores:

• Volatility (0..W_Volatility)

• Microstructure (0..W_Micro)

• Divergence / Exhaustion (0..W_Divergence)

• Spread proxy (0..W_Spread)

• Session risk (0..W_Session)

• Structure / BOS (0..W_Structure)

C) FVGEngine (H1 + H4)

• Detect bearish FVG zones using a 3-candle model

• Zone becomes inactive when filled ≥ FVG_FillPct

• Identify nearest bearish FVG below price + stack count

• Compute FVG_RiskScore in range 0..25

• Apply contribution cap:

  • FVG_Contrib = min(W_FVG_ContribMax, FVG_RiskScore)

D) DumpRiskEngine

• Compute final DumpRiskScore (0..100) as sum of category contributions (normalized)

• Determine Mode: NORMAL / SAFE / NO_TRADE

• Apply hard triggers + lock handling

E) Dashboard (Display)

• Use OBJ_LABEL (preferred), top-left corner

• Show DumpRisk %, Mode, lock status (if active), and top reasons (2–3)

6) Exact Calculations + Score Mapping (v1)

IMPORTANT: all thresholds and boundary values below must be input parameters.

6.1 Volatility (0..W_Volatility)

Inputs

Logic

• Compute ATR_M5 and ATR_H1

• baseline = ATR_H1 / 12

• ratio = ATR_M5 / baseline

• Map ratio to base score (Score1..Score5)

• Compute spike count: in last TRSpikes_Lookback M5 bars, count bars where TR > TRSpikes_Factor * ATR_M5

• Add bonus based on spike count thresholds (max +TRSpikes_B3)

• Clamp final volatility score to 0..W_Volatility (scale if needed)

6.2 Microstructure (0..W_Micro)

Micro = Wicks + FailedBO + BearImpulse
Each component has its own maximum (all inputs).

Inputs

    

        

            

        
    


    

        input int    WickBars              = 12;
input int    Wick_Max              = 12;

input int    FailedBO_Lookback     = 20;
input int    FailedBO_Max          = 6;

input int    BearImpulse_LookbackM1= 6;
input double BearImpulse_ATRMult   = 1.2;
input int    BearImpulse_Max       = 7;

    

6.2.1 WickScore (0..Wick_Max) — dump-only (penalize only bearish distribution)

Threshold inputs (recommended defaults)

Logic

• Compute average upper wick fraction over last WickBars M5 bars:

  • upperWickFraction = (high - max(open,close)) / (high - low + eps)

• Compute bad fraction = % of bars where:

  • bodyRatio < Wick_BodyRatioBad AND upperWickFraction > Wick_UpperRatioBad

• WickScore = AvgUpperScore + BadFracScore , clamp to 0..Wick_Max

6.2.2 FailedBreakoutScore (0..FailedBO_Max) — chop should not inflate risk

Inputs

    

        

            

        
    


    

        input int FBO_Th1          = 3;
input int FBO_Th2          = 5;

input int FBO_Score0       = 0;
input int FBO_Score1       = 2;
input int FBO_Score2       = 5;
input int FBO_Score3       = 6;

input int FBO_LocalWindow  = 5;

    

Definition (example)

• A “failed breakout up” occurs when price makes a local high above prior highs but closes back below the breakout area within FBO_LocalWindow bars.

Map counts to points and clamp to 0..FailedBO_Max .

6.2.3 BearImpulseScore (0..BearImpulse_Max) — primary dump signal

Inputs

Logic

• On M1, detect bearish impulse candle(s) within last BearImpulse_LookbackM1 bars:

  • close is near low: (close - low) / (high - low + eps) <= Impulse_ClosePosMax

  • body = (open - close) must be >= Impulse_BodyFactor * ATR_M1 * BearImpulse_ATRMult

• Strength tiers:

  • if body >= Impulse_Str1 * ATR_M1 * BearImpulse_ATRMult → score Impulse_Score1

  • if body >= Impulse_Str2 * ATR_M1 * BearImpulse_ATRMult → score Impulse_Score2 (max)

• Clamp to 0..BearImpulse_Max

6.3 Divergence / Exhaustion (0..W_Divergence) — only strong exhaustion

Inputs

    

        

            

        
    


    

        input int RSI_Period       = 14;
input int EMA_SlopeBars    = 10;

input int Div_RSI_Max      = 6;
input int Div_RSIdiv_Max   = 8;
input int Div_EMAslope_Max = 6;

// Dump-only RSI state thresholds
input double RSI_T1 = 60;
input double RSI_T2 = 65;
input double RSI_T3 = 70;

input int RSI_S0 = 0;
input int RSI_S1 = 3;
input int RSI_S2 = 6;

// RSI divergence
input int Div_SwingLookback = 60;
input int Div_Score         = 8;

// EMA slope in points
input double EMA_Slope_PosHi = 15;
input double EMA_Slope_PosLo = 5;
input double EMA_Slope_Neg   = -5;

input int EMA_Slope_S0 = 0;
input int EMA_Slope_S1 = 2;
input int EMA_Slope_S2 = 6;

    

Logic

• RSI state:

  • RSI < RSI_T1 → RSI_S0

  • RSI >= RSI_T2 → RSI_S1

  • RSI >= RSI_T3 → RSI_S2

• RSI divergence:

  • Detect bearish divergence over Div_SwingLookback and add Div_Score when confirmed

• EMA slope:

  • Compute EMA slope over EMA_SlopeBars (points delta)

  • Positive slope → 0

  • Slight negative → +2

  • Strong negative → +6
    Clamp each component to its max and sum, then clamp to 0..W_Divergence .

6.4 Spread Proxy (0..W_Spread) — only toxic conditions

Inputs

Implementation

• Maintain a circular buffer of spread values updated only on a new M1 bar

• Compute z = (SpreadNow - mean) / (std + eps)

• Map z to points and clamp to 0..W_Spread

6.5 Session Risk (0..W_Session) — minor amplifier only

Inputs

    

        

            

        
    


    

        input int Session_London_Start   = 8;
input int Session_London_End     = 10;

input int Session_NY_Start       = 14;
input int Session_NY_End         = 16;

input int Session_Rollover_Start = 23;
input int Session_Rollover_End   = 1;   // must handle midnight crossover

input int Session_Add_LondonNY   = 2;
input int Session_Add_Rollover   = 3;

    

Clamp to 0..W_Session .

6.6 Structure (0..W_Structure) — BOS down is key

Inputs

Logic

• Compute structureLow from bars 2..(lookback+1) on M5

• If close(shift=1) < structureLow - BOS_BufferPoints*_Point → BOS down = true

• Score = Struct_ScoreBOS else Struct_ScoreNoBOS, clamp to 0..W_Structure

7) FVG ENGINE (H1 + H4) — Exact and Adjustable

Inputs

    

        

            

        
    


    

        input bool UseFVG = true;

input ENUM_TIMEFRAMES FVG_TF1 = PERIOD_H1;
input ENUM_TIMEFRAMES FVG_TF2 = PERIOD_H4;

input int  FVG_LookbackH1 = 400;
input int  FVG_LookbackH4 = 250;

input double FVG_FillPct       = 80.0;
input double FVG_StackATRWindow= 1.5;

input double FVG_DistATR_T1 = 0.75;
input double FVG_DistATR_T2 = 1.50;
input double FVG_DistATR_T3 = 2.50;

input double FVG_SizeATR_T1 = 0.40;
input double FVG_SizeATR_T2 = 0.80;

// Scoring
input int FVG_S_Dist1     = 12;
input int FVG_S_Dist2     = 7;
input int FVG_S_Dist3     = 3;

input int FVG_S_Size1     = 1;
input int FVG_S_Size2     = 3;
input int FVG_S_Size3     = 5;

input int FVG_S_Stack0    = 0;
input int FVG_S_Stack1    = 1;
input int FVG_S_Stack2    = 3;
input int FVG_S_Stack3    = 4;

input int FVG_S_InsideZone= 4;

// Combining
input double FVG_CombineH1Weight = 0.65;
input double FVG_CombineH4Weight = 0.35;

    

Output

• FVG_RiskScore in range 0..25

• FVG_Contrib = min(W_FVG_ContribMax, FVG_RiskScore)

Performance requirement: FVG scanning must be cached and recalculated only on a new H1/H4 bar.

8) Hard Triggers + NO_TRADE Lock (Adjustable)

Inputs

Logic

• If lock is active → always NO_TRADE

• Trigger A:

  • If FVG >= HardA_FVG_Min AND BOS == true

  • → NO_TRADE + lock for HardA_LockMinutes

• Trigger B:

  • If FVG >= HardB_FVG_Min AND BearImpulse == true

  • → NO_TRADE + lock for round(NoTradeLockMinutes * HardB_LockFactor)

9) Dashboard Output + Reasons (OBJ_LABEL)

Use OBJ_LABEL , top-left corner.

Required lines

1. DumpRisk: XX% | Mode: NORMAL/SAFE/NO_TRADE

2. Drop: 30pts | Safe:35 | NoTrade:60

3. Vol:x Micro:x Div:x Spr:x Sess:x Str:x FVG:x

4. Reasons: ... (top 2–3 category reason texts)

5. Lock: XX min (only if active)

Top reasons selection rule

• Choose the highest contributing categories (after weighting/capping).

• Provide human-readable reason strings, e.g.:

  • BearImpulse(M1): strong

  • BOS(M5): DOWN

  • FVG(H4): bearish below (near)

  • SpreadZ: 2.3

  • Volatility: spike/chaos

10) Performance Rules (Must Be Followed)

• OnTick() :

  • If ComputeOnlyOnNewM5Bar=true :

    • Only detect new M5 bar

    • Compute only on new M5 bar

• CopyRates() windows:

  • M5: only required bars (e.g., ~80 for divergence/structure)

  • M1: only what is needed for impulse and spread update on new M1 bar

• FVG:

  • Do not scan 400/250 bars every tick

  • Scan only when needed + cache results

11) Delivery

• Provide one .mq5 file (EA or indicator)

• Must compile with 0 warnings / 0 errors

• Provide short usage notes:

  • How to attach it to XAUUSD M5

  • Explain the meaning of NORMAL / SAFE / NO_TRADE

General Acceptance (Always True)

1. No trading operations

   • The module must never call trade functions that place/modify/close orders or positions.

2. Stable operation

   • No freezes, no crashes, no excessive journal spam.

3. Correct update cadence

   • With ComputeOnlyOnNewM5Bar=true , DumpRisk and all category scores must not change within the same M5 bar (except lock countdown display).

4. FVG caching

   • FVG scan must run only on new H1/H4 bars (or when explicitly required by cache invalidation), not on every tick.

A) CHOP / CONSOLIDATION (Sideways Market)

Setup

• Price moves in a tight range, frequent small reversals

• No strong bearish impulse candles on M1

• No BOS down on M5

• Spread normal (SpreadZ typically < 1.0)

• FVG zones, if present, are far or not relevant (distance above T3)

Expected

• Mode = NORMAL

• DumpRisk typically ≤ 15% (target range: 5–15%)

• Category expectations:

  • Volatility low (0–4 points typical)

  • Micro low (0–2 typical; wicks may be present but should not dominate)

  • Divergence low (0–3 typical)

  • Spread near 0

  • Structure 0 (no BOS)

  • FVG low (0–3 typical, or 0 if far)

• Reasons:

  • If any reasons appear, they must be mild (e.g. “Wicks: moderate”), and only when contributions are meaningful.

Fail conditions

• Mode becomes SAFE/NO_TRADE without BearImpulse or BOS down.

• DumpRisk consistently > 25 in a sideways market with normal spread.

B) MILD BUY TREND (Gradual Uptrend / Normal Pullbacks)

Setup

• M5 trend mildly up, pullbacks are shallow

• EMA slope is positive or near-flat

• RSI is below 65 most of the time

• No BOS down

• No strong bearish impulses on M1 (occasional red candles allowed)

• Spread normal

Expected

• Mode = NORMAL

• DumpRisk typically ≤ 20% (target range: 5–20%)

• Category expectations:

  • Divergence should not inflate risk unless RSI is very high AND divergence confirmed

  • Structure must remain 0 (no BOS)

  • Micro remains low unless a real impulse occurs

• Reasons:

  • Should not show “dump-style” reasons in normal uptrend conditions

Fail conditions

• SAFE mode triggered solely because RSI > 60 or because normal pullbacks occur.

• NO_TRADE triggered without hard trigger conditions.

C) DUMP / PRE-DUMP CONDITIONS (Sharp Bearish Move)

Setup
One of the following must be present (ideally multiple):

• BearImpulse(M1) detected (strong body, close near low)

• BOS down (M5) confirmed

• Nearby bearish FVG below price (distance within T1/T2)

• Volatility ratio high (≥ L3/L4) and/or multiple TR spikes

• SpreadZ elevated (≥ 1.6 or more)

Expected (Soft)

• If score ≥ ScoreSafe (default 35) → Mode = SAFE

• If score ≥ ScoreNoTrade (default 60) → Mode = NO_TRADE

• DumpRisk should jump meaningfully (e.g., from <20 to >60) when conditions align.

Expected (Hard Triggers + Lock)

• Trigger A:

  • If FVG >= HardA_FVG_Min AND BOS==true

  • → Mode immediately becomes NO_TRADE

  • Lock activates for HardA_LockMinutes

• Trigger B:

  • If FVG >= HardB_FVG_Min AND BearImpulse==true

  • → Mode immediately becomes NO_TRADE

  • Lock activates for round(NoTradeLockMinutes * HardB_LockFactor)

Lock behavior

• While lock is active:

  • Mode must remain NO_TRADE regardless of score changes

  • UI must show Lock: XX min counting down

• When lock expires:

  • Mode returns to score-based evaluation (NORMAL/SAFE/NO_TRADE)

Reasons

• Reasons must reflect the main contributors, typically:

  • BearImpulse(M1): strong

  • BOS(M5): DOWN

  • FVG(H4): bearish below (near)

  • Volatility: chaos spike

  • SpreadZ: high

Fail conditions

• A true dump scenario (impulse + BOS + near FVG) does not elevate Mode to SAFE/NO_TRADE.

• Lock does not hold NO_TRADE until expiry.

• Reasons do not correspond to the highest contributing categories.

D) DATA ISSUES / MISSING HISTORY (Robustness)

Setup

• Insufficient bars on H4/H1 or temporary CopyRates() failure

Expected

• Module remains running

• Affected values show “N/A” or score=0 with a clear reason in code

• No crash, no endless loops, no tick-level spam

• Mode should still be computed from available categories, but must not produce false NO_TRADE purely due to missing data