Analyze the current situation of the US dollar, sort out the ideas, and provide reference for the future market!

 
[School's point of view]:
Judging from the current disk pattern, the U.S. dollar index still maintains a relatively positive trend, because the price has reached a new high above the high point of last Thursday. The latter step rises to lay the foundation, so from a technical point of view, the upward momentum of the US dollar index can still be maintained, and there is also an ideology of further rise in the market outlook.

But why does the dollar index keep rising, is there no possibility of a correction? In fact, it is not. The school has always believed that there is still a need for a correction in the US dollar index, but it cannot be released now, because the current overall situation is favorable for the US dollar, and the benefits brought by the continued rise of the US dollar index will be far greater than that of getting out of the correction market. , so it may be difficult for the dollar to get out of the correction before the situation changes. However, this does not negate the demand for a correction in the US dollar. After all, the US dollar index needs to have enough room to rise. If it only rises without any adjustment, it will not be absolutely beneficial to the US economy. Therefore, the callback market will inevitably appear, but it needs to be combined with the actual situation to get out.

The current situation in the United States is still very bad, especially inflation, which has basically entered a state of out of control-the domestic prices in the United States continue to soar, rising month by month, which is obviously an abnormal state. The more it can’t be controlled, the government has no way to do anything about it, and there is no way to do it, so it can only hope for the Fed’s monetary policy, hoping to control inflation by raising interest rates, thereby alleviating the various pressures caused by inflation. Of course, while the Federal Reserve is working hard, the U.S. government is not idle. Now it is vigorously fanning the flames of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The purpose is to divert attention. Because the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will also lead to inflation problems in Europe, which will also alleviate some of the domestic inflation anxiety in the United States, but this does not fundamentally solve the problem, it is only a relief, and the real impact still comes from the Federal Reserve. Therefore, the Fed’s interest rate decision in early May will definitely raise interest rates, and a consensus has basically been reached on raising interest rates by 50 basis points. The only suspense is whether it will raise interest rates by 75 basis points, which is also left to the market by Fed official Bullard. A little conjecture, although Bullard did not say that he must raise interest rates by 75 basis points, but left this possibility, the purpose is to let the market guess and think slowly.

Therefore, the current situation of the U.S. dollar index seems complicated, but it is actually relatively simple. It is to continue to consume time and defuse the pressure with the volatile rising market. After all, this is the most urgent need of the current U.S. dollar index, and we only need to follow this rhythm. , to enter the market with a light warehouse, reduce pressure, and grab some reasonable profits for reference!


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