Wumbo Analytics / Профиль

A major anomaly is currently sweeping through global financial markets as the conventional correlation between US Treasury yields and gold (XAU/USD) completely breaks down. Historically, a surge in the 10-year US government bond yield (US10Y) past the psychological 5.0% threshold would heavily suppress gold, an asset that provides no interest yield. However, the market reality in mid-September 2026 reveals extraordinary resilience from the precious metal; after printing an impulsive bullish cycle toward the $4,700 mark, XAU/USD has firmly rejected a deeper sell-off and remains well-supported between $4,270 and $4,340 despite facing aggressive macro headwinds.This structural divergence serves as a potent signal that global markets no longer view rising yields as a reflection of healthy economic growth, but rather as an alarm bell for a looming fiscal crisis and stagflation risks. Market sentiment is heavily driven by long-term inflation fears sparked by Brent crude oil surging past $100 per barrel due to geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea, compounded by the alarming reality of the US national debt officially crossing a staggering $40 Trillion. Under these conditions, gold’s utility has pivoted toward an absolute safe haven through a clear debasement and sovereign risk trade, as investors and global central banks aggressively protect capital against systemic fiat currency risks and government debt default threats.Furthermore, the unique underperformance of the US Dollar Index (DXY) provides a crucial cushion for gold to hold its ground near an 18-year yield high. Instead of rallying sharply alongside spiking yields and the September 2026 FOMC decision—which hiked interest rates by +25 BPS under the leadership of Kevin Warsh—the DXY has remained uncharacteristically sluggish, capped below the key 101 psychological level. The greenback's inability to leverage surging yields proves that its appeal as the world's sole reserve currency is being eroded by the market’s focus on US domestic fiscal risks, ultimately granting XAU/USD ample breathing room to sustain its robust long-term trend structure.

Gold price movements over the past week have been erratic yet highly volatile. I say this because I, too, incurred losses—though within a risk level I could accept.

In my analysis, gold's movement appears flat and is trending downward; please note that this is merely an analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell gold.

In my opinion, XAU/USD will experience a decline in the short term.

The Next Scenario XAUUSD (MARKET OUTLOOK)

Short-term BTC/USD scenario: potential for a short-term decline.

Short-term XAU/USD scenario: potential for a short-term decline.

the next scenario XAUUSD

XAUUSD & GBPUSD Technical Setup: Market structure across major pairs indicates a strong bullish continuation following completion of key corrective cycles. On XAUUSD (1H), price is holding above the critical $4,005 support zone, validating a bullish continuation pattern aimed at breaking key BOS resistance levels toward $4,320 (TP1) and $4,480 (TP2). Concurrently, GBPUSD (4H) has completed its Wave (2) retracement precisely inside the $1.33463 demand zone, laying the foundation for a high-probability Wave (3) impulse expansion toward $1.36463 with risk strictly managed below $1.31963.

The next scenario

The market recently trapped my initial short bias by extending its corrective move into a larger Flat / Double Top pattern. On the 1H and 4H charts, the current upward move represents the final Wave (C) push, completing a minor 5-wave sub-structure into the strong resistance zone around $66,800–$67,200.

Supported by a clear Bearish RSI Divergence on the 1H time frame, this retest of the previous high suggests buying momentum is fading. Once Wave (5) of (C) concludes at this upper barrier, the broader bearish cycle is expected to resume toward $60,600 (TP1) and $58,300 (TP2).

XAU/USD 4H Analysis: From a market structure standpoint, Gold is currently holding a pivotal higher-low demand zone near $4,027 after completing its corrective pullback. Guided by Elliott Wave principles, this healthy retest sets the foundation for an upcoming bullish impulse sequence, targeting a break above key resistance levels toward $4,360 and potentially higher if structural momentum continues to validate the trend.

the next scenario BTCUSD

XAU/USD 1H Setup: Looks like Gold just finished its (A)-(B)-(C) correction right into that strong demand zone around $4,020–$4,027. If this support holds, we could be looking at a solid bullish reversal starting a new 5-wave push up toward $4,180–$4,260. Invalidation/SL goes right below $4,002.

Based on the 1-hour BTC/USD chart, the price has confirmed a breakdown below the lower support trendline of a rising wedge pattern near $67,000, signaling a short-term bearish reversal. Guided by Elliott Wave theory, the market is unfolding a 5-wave impulse sequence to the downside, where wave (4) retests the immediate resistance level at $65,200–$65,500 before initiating the final wave (5) extension toward the primary horizontal support target at $58,000.

From a purely structural standpoint, the recent price action in Gold presents a textbook example of a high-probability bullish continuation setup. Following a strong impulsive breakout that established a structural peak, the asset underwent a healthy, low-volume technical correction. My decision to execute a long position within the designated demand zone (the highlighted gray block) is rooted in the principle of structural confluence. This specific area represents a critical intersection where a major prior resistance level pivots into an institutional support floor, reinforced by a well-defined ascending trendline that has consistently anchored the broader bullish trajectory.

Risk mitigation is the cornerstone of this trade. By timing the entry precisely at this confluence point, the invalidation threshold is kept remarkably tight just below the structural pivot, resulting in an optimal risk-to-reward ratio. The market has already validated this demand zone, with the price currently experiencing upward momentum toward the projected psychological targets. The systematic alignment of horizontal support, trendline integrity, and strict risk parameters suggests a highly favorable probability for sustained upside expansion.

Based on empirical observations of the Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) chart as of July 18, 2026, the macro trend structure indicates that the long-term depreciation cycle has reached an exhaustion phase within the Wave 5 (E) fractal area around the 4,017.11 price level. Theoretically, the completion of this five-wave downward structure validates a potential market reversal toward a mid-term bullish accumulation trend. Nevertheless, data visualization on the H4 timeframe reveals that the price is currently testing a minor corrective structure. There are two geometric probabilities: the price will either bounce immediately upon completing Wave (2), or the corrective structure will escalate into a complex Double Combo Wave (W-X-Y) pattern via a secondary downward swing before initiating an impulsive acceleration toward the linear resistance target at 4,185.37.

It must be scientifically emphasized that the 4,185.37 level is strictly a mid-term target, rather than a definitive macro-trend destination. The ultimate extent or continuation of the long-term upward trajectory remains unquantifiable at this juncture. Furthermore, the subsequent market direction after achieving this mid-term target—whether the price will sustain its rally or reverse into a downward trajectory—remains entirely uncertain. The entire narrative presented in this article is purely academic, predicated on the Elliott Wave theoretical framework, and serves exclusively as the author's personal analytical instrument. This publication does not constitute a mandate, solicitation, or commercial recommendation to execute buy or sell orders on the XAUUSD derivative instrument, and all market participants are strictly required to conduct independent due diligence.

Зарегистрировался в MQL5.community