Evgeniy Piskachev / Профиль

Опубликовал пост Анонс важных событий и данных макростатистики на 10-14 ноября

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Опубликовал пост Рынок ждёт трудовую статистику из США

Japan's Economy Minister Akira Amari said on Saturday he saw progress in Asia-Pacific regional trade negotiations, although it would be difficult to reach an agreement by the end of the year, according to Jiji press.
Japan economy minister says TPP agreement difficult by year-end: reportJapan economy minister says TPP agreement difficult by year-end: report
Trade ministers from the 12 nations participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) pact held talks on the sidelines of an annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC) meeting in Beijing.
The regional trade pact was stalled in September, as the U.S. and Japan, the two biggest economies participating in the trade deal, blamed the other for a stalemate over tariffs on farm products.
© Reuters. Japan's Economics Minister Akira Amari arrives at Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's official residence in Tokyo© Reuters. Japan's Economics Minister Akira Amari arrives at Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's official residence in Tokyo
Japan wants to protect sensitive goods, including beef, pork, rice and dairy, which are important to its farming sector, while the United States seeks to protect U.S. carmakers from increased Japanese competition. The United States insists that Japan lower barriers to agricultural imports.

Evgeniy Piskachev
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Опубликовал пост В ЕС приняли во внимание официальную реакцию РФ на выборы в ДНР и ЛНР

Опубликовал пост Раскорреляция ММВБ и РТС усиливается

JPMorgan Chase & Co (N:JPM), the largest U.S. bank by assets, said it would cut 3,000 more jobs than previously expected in its retail banking division.
JPMorgan to cut 3,000 more retail banking jobsJPMorgan to cut 3,000 more retail banking jobs
The bank said it would reduce 4,000 jobs in its card, merchant services and auto unit, up from the 2,000 previously announced. The bank is also cutting 7,000 jobs in its mortgage banking unit, up from 6,000.
JPMorgan will have eliminated 27,000 jobs by the year-end from its consumer bank unit over two years, even after additions for more risk controls and regulatory compliance.
Some 18,000 jobs will have been taken out of mortgage banking, where the company has less work to do refinancing loans and handling troubled mortgages left from the financial crisis.
Many big banks, including Wells Fargo & Co (N:WFC) and Bank of America Corp (N:BAC), have been laying off mortgage workers as higher interest rates make refinancing less attractive to homeowners.
JPMorgan said it expects 146,000 Chase Bank jobs by the year-end, down by 11,000 from a year earlier.
The bank expects its 2016 retail banking expense base to be $2 billion lower than in 2014, JPMorgan's retail bank head Gordon Smith said in an investor conference on Friday.

Опубликовал пост US Jobs And More

The US dollar is narrowly mixed as the market awaits for North American jobs data to close out the week. It has been another good week for the greenback. It has appreciated against all the major and emerging market currencies.

The US 10-year yield has edged higher this week. The 5 bp increase puts the yield just below 2.40%, its highest since October 7. With the notable exception of Spanish bonos, European bond yields were unchanged to lower. Australian benchmark yield had been lower until today when yields rose almost 11 bp, despite the somber monetary policy statement. The continued fall in the Australian dollar, now at its lowest level in more than four years may be souring the appetite for the AAA-issuer.

The RBA warned that Japan’s monetary policy may spur flows into Australia, keeping the Australian dollar stronger than justified by economic fundamentals. Economists have traditionally understood that currencies should move to bring some macro-economic variable into balance, like prices, money supply, external accounts, or interest rates. The problem is that a “clearing price” for one is not necessarily the “clearing price” for another variable.

The fact of the matter is that the Australian dollar has been the second worst performing currency this week, just behind the Japanese yen. The yen has fallen 2.45% this week while the Aussie is off 2.25%, and that includes today’s 0.5% advance. While many observers have cried that the BOJ’s actions are another strike in the currency war, we are less sanguine. It takes two to tango. The response by other countries, including the US, the euro area, and China, have been noticeably absent.

Japanese stocks shine, with the Nikkei gaining 7.8% this week, helped by the BOJ/GPIF action at the end of last week. The latest MOF data shows that foreign investors stepped up their purchases of Japanese bonds (JPY640 bln or ~$6.6 bln) and Japanese stocks (JPY905 bln or ~$9.3 bln). Japanese investors also increased their foreign asset purchases. The JPY807 bln of foreign bonds is the most in three months. They also bought JPY326 bln of foreign stocks. Note that this report covers the sessions before the BOJ/GPIF announcement. Next week's MOF report will be even more telling.

The main focus today is on the US jobs report. The trend lower in weekly initial jobless claims (four-week average stands at new cyclical lows), the ADP report (230k) and the various surveys, including the service ISM that showed near record strength, all point to another robust report. As we have noted before, job growth in the US has been amazingly steady. The three-month average is 224k. The six-month average is 245k. The 12-month average stands at 221k. Other details of the report may be more mixed. Hourly earnings were flat in September and might have ticked up in October. The work week that ticked up in September might have slipped back in October.

However, given sentiment, even a mildly disappointing report will likely be shrugged off. The BOJ is ramping up its QQE, and the GPIF will lead a large scale portfolio re-allocation. Yesterday Draghi reaffirmed the ECB's commitment to increase its balance sheet considerably, and set the wheels more formally into motion to explore additional measures (assets?) as the risks remain decidedly on the downside.

Many pundits have seized Draghi's comments to claim that sovereign bond purchases are imminent. We remain less convinced, given the daunting legal, political and technical hurdles. References to textbook QE seems downright silly as no such thing exists. As we have noted, the Federal Reserve does not call its long-term asset purchases QE, but CE as in credit easing. The bottom line is that the ECB is increasing its balance sheet. There are other assets it can buy shy of sovereign bonds. These include supra-nationals, uncovered bank bonds and corporate bonds.

In Europe today, German industrial production was a bit softer than expected (1.4% rather than 2.0%), but France was a bit better (flat instead of -0.2%), and Spain was stronger than both. It's 1.0% increase year-over-year contrasts with Germany's decline of 0.1% and France's 0.3% decline.

There is an interesting discussion taking place in the EU today. The revisions to the national income accounts have translated into new funds that the UK and the Netherlands have to pay the EU. The money is due at the end of the month. Dutch Fin Min Dijsselbloem does not want to pay a lump sum, but rather set up a payment schedule over the next year. The UK’s Cameron is seeking a reduction in its payment, and also some kind of payment scheme.

Reportedly Cameron warned that sentiment in the UK was hardening against the EU (as if it has nothing to do with signals from his government and was all the EU’s fault). Merkel has made clear, over a different issue (immigration) that while Germany (unlike France) wants the UK to stay in the EU, it is not willing to ensure this at any cost. Moreover, other countries who are on the receiving end want their funds. Poland, for example, says that the 317 mln euros its is to receive would put the 2015 deficit below the EC’s 3% target.

Опубликовал пост О девальвации, манипуляциях и утках СМИ

Is what happens in China important to the rest of the world? I would guess a few would say 'yes'. What about stock-market performance? Is China important to the S&P 500 and other global markets? Again, I think a few would say 'yes'.
Over the past 5 years, the Shanghai Composite index and the S&P 500 have been heading in different directions to say the least. The Shanghai index finds itself worth almost a third less than it was 5 years ago while the S&P 500 is up nearly 100%. Needless to say, that's one of the largest performance-spread differences in years.
At this time, the Shanghai index is facing dual resistance at (1) in the chart above with momentum at lofty levels -- actually the highest since its 2009 highs.
If the Shanghai Index breaks above that resistance, it should be considered a positive breakout, which could become a positive global influence.
And the Shanghai index isn't the only index up against multi-year resistance: check out the price situation in Japan right now (see here).
Is it worth keeping a close eye on the Shanghai and Nikkei 225 as an indicator as to where other global stock markets are headed?
Absolutely.

Опубликовал пост Торговый план на 7 ноября

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Опубликовал пост Банк Англии и ЕЦБ не будут менять ставки - прогноз

Опубликовал пост Нефть снижается накануне итогов встречи ЕЦБ

U.S. soybean and corn futures edged lower on Thursday, amid speculation beneficial weather in the U.S. Midwest will speed up the pace of the harvest.
Soybeans, corn edge lower on ideal U.S. crop weatherSoybeans edge lower as ideal U.S. crop weather weighs
On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, US soybeans for January delivery fell 3.27 cents, or 0.32%, to trade at $10.1513 a bushel during U.S. morning hours.
Day earlier, prices of the oilseed fell by as much as 2.35% to hit $9.9520 a bushel, the weakest level since October 27, before turning higher to end at $10.1920, up 9.4 cents, or 0.94%.
Updated weather forecasting models called for mostly dry conditions across the U.S. Midwest over the next 10 days, which should allow farmers to accelerate the pace of the harvest.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, approximately 83% of the U.S. soy harvest was completed as of November 2, compared to 70% a week earlier and in line with the five-year average for this time of year.
Meanwhile, US corn for December delivery traded at $3.6863 a bushel, down 1.38 cents, or 0.37%.
Corn futures lost as much as 1.5% on Wednesday to touch $3.5900 a bushel, the lowest since October 27, before rallying to settle at $3.7020, up 5.6 cents, or 1.58%.
Nearly 65% of the U.S. corn harvest was completed as of last week, up from 46% in the preceding week and just 8% below the five-year average of 73% for this time of year, according to the USDA.
Elsewhere on the CBOT, US wheat for December delivery shed 2.12 cents, or 0.41%, to trade at $5.2188 a bushel.
Prices of the grain slumped 5.6 cents, or 1.08%, on Wednesday to close at $5.2460 a bushel.
Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, followed by soybeans, government figures show. Wheat was fourth, behind hay.