John Lucia / Профиль

Hello traders. If you have been trading EUR/USD perhaps you share my frustration with a market that defies “normal” interpretations of both fundamental and technical analysis. Case in point, today (4-11-2019) prior to US data that was released at 8:30 EST and two fed speeches shortly thereafter, the pair was trading approximately at 1.2614. The data came in better than expected and the speeches had only a minor impact. The newly released data supported a strong US dollar which means that EUR/USD should have lowered in price. From a technical standpoint looking at the 4 hour chart at 8:30, Stochastic and MACD indicators showed overbought and that the pair was bearish trading well below the 200 day average. Again, this indicated that the price should go down. The pair did go down initially but very quickly rebounded and is, at the time of this writing, up at 1.2716? With data supporting a strong US dollar and lackluster performance in the European markets, how can the pair turn slightly bullish?

This leads me to confirm the realization that the “little guy” stands a low chance of being successful trading the FOREX market. Not that the little guy can't make a profit, its just very difficult. The movers and shakers like banks and investment companies control the market. Predicting what their knee jerk reaction to events and indicators will be is almost impossible for the average trader. We can make an educated decision on which way the market is going to go but in the end it is essentially gambling. The average trader is at the mercy of the “big boys”.

I realize that there are many other variables that affect the markets and that the EUR/USD trades in a wide range but ultimately, it is my opinion, that a relative few control the market and it is just a game of chance for the average trader.

I am interested in others experiences and opinions on this.

Happy Trading!

Hello, it's been a while since I posted anything so I thought I'd share my technical analysis for EUR/USD for this week, 2/4/2019 - 2/8/2019.

The pair is currently trading between the 21 and 100 day moving averages on the daily chart at 1.4325. Barring any pivotal fundamental news, the pair should test 1.4910 by the end of the week. This becomes a critical point. A move above takes us to 1.5350 Monday or Tuesday of next week with 1.5749 becoming a point of resistance. Below, and we go back to ranging between 1.3295 and 1.4380, the current 200 and 21 day averages on the weekly chart, with support at 1.2850 if it dips that low.

Personally, I'm leaning towards the high side and believe we will break 1.5000 this week or early next week.

Happy Trading!

Below is a link to my update on the "Stoch-Cross Scalper" for the month of May, 2018 ...

https://youtu.be/El-9-DtwgBI

Thanks and Happy Trading!

Below is a link to my EUR/USD forecast for the week of 6/04/2018.

https://youtu.be/OedNGkzbpIM

Happy Trading!

Below is a link to my EUR/USD forecast for the week of 5/28/2018.

https://youtu.be/09DX-3_Y-dc

Happy Trading!

Below is a link to my EUR/USD forecast for the week of 5/14/2018.

https://youtu.be/DUVHpJKfgyc

Happy Trading!

I enjoy a good cigar after a hard day of trading. Check out JR Cigar. They have the best selection of quality cigars at the lowest prices! Plus, here's $10 off your first order of $50 or more ...

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Hello! Below is a link to my EUR/USD forecast for this week ...
https://youtu.be/oMIrNoy2poc

Happy Trading!

Below is a link to my latest update on trading the "Stoch-Cross Scalper" on a live account and an updated EUR/USD forecast...

https://youtu.be/4DBHLTZEQhA

Happy Trading!

Near term EUR/USD technical forecast (fundamentals could change the outlook ...) Happy Trading!

Below is a link to my latest update on trading the "Stoch-Cross Scalper" on a live account:

https://youtu.be/sxgJmSk6iHI

Below is a link to my latest update on trading the "Stoch-Cross Scalper" on a live account:

https://youtu.be/ufzHWCwlr3g

Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 493.91 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: 197.28 Floating P/L: -81.10 Margin: 244.82
Balance: 691.19 Equity: 610.09 Free Margin: 365.27




Gross Profit: 1 104.38 Gross Loss: 907.10 Total Net Profit: 197.28
Profit Factor: 1.22 Expected Payoff: 1.49
Absolute Drawdown: 192.28 Maximal Drawdown: 269.70 (46.71%) Relative Drawdown: 46.71% (269.70)

Total Trades: 132 Short Positions (won %): 65 (90.77%) Long Positions (won %): 67 (94.03%)
Profit Trades (% of total): 122 (92.42%) Loss trades (% of total): 10 (7.58%)
Largest profit trade: 21.90 loss trade: -100.10
Average profit trade: 9.05 loss trade: -90.71
Maximum consecutive wins ($): 35 (261.00) consecutive losses ($): 2 (-199.70)
Maximal consecutive profit (count): 271.86 (29) consecutive loss (count): -199.70 (2)
Average consecutive wins: 12 consecutive losses: 1

Below is the performance of the "Stoch-Cross Scalper" (full version) trading on a live Oanda account. It currently, as of 2/28/2018, has a 92.3 profitable trade percentage and has increased my balance by 34.3% in just under 2 months. I have ongoing documentation of its success on my YouTube video blog ...

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOiGwSMeSeSK6fHtw04ZEKg

Gross Profit:
1 084.38
Gross Loss:
907.10
Total Net Profit:
177.28
Profit Factor:
1.20
Expected Payoff:
1.36

Absolute Drawdown:
192.28
Maximal Drawdown:
269.70 (46.71%)
Relative Drawdown:
46.71% (269.70)

Total Trades:
130
Short Positions (won %):
64 (90.63%)
Long Positions (won %):
66 (93.94%)
Profit Trades (% of total):
120 (92.31%)
Loss trades (% of total):
10 (7.69%)
Largest
profit trade:
21.90
loss trade:
-100.10
Average
profit trade:
9.04
loss trade:
-90.71
Maximum
consecutive wins ($):
35 (261.00)
consecutive losses ($):
2 (-199.70)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count):
271.86 (29)
consecutive loss (count):
-199.70 (2)
Average
consecutive wins:
12
consecutive losses:
1

Thanks and Happy Trading!

Hello, a free version of the "Stoch-Cross Scalper" is now available for download! This version is identical to the pay version only it trades with a fixed lot size of 0.01 and only trades on Mondays and Tuesdays. Please download it and try it on EUR/USD in the 5 minute timeframe. This is your chance to try the "Stoch-Cross Scalper" for free! Please leave your comments and reviews on the download site.

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/28143

Thanks and Happy Trading!

Hello, here's a link to Week 7 results of trading the 'Stoch-Cross Scalper' on a Live account.

https://youtu.be/8n25G9UB1Fs

Thanks!

Hello, here's a link to Week 6 results of testing the "Stoch-Cross Scalper" on a live account.

https://youtu.be/PwoFfGJnfUg

Thanks and Happy Trading!

Hello, here's a link to Week 5 results of testing the "Stoch-Cross Scalper" on a live account. In this video I show how backtest results do not match the actual live performance.

https://youtu.be/ig30Hu-9j8M

Thanks

The "Stoch-Cross Scalper" currently has a profitable trade rate of 94% and is on a streak of 35 consecutive profits trading EUR/USD in the 5 minute time-frame on a live server.


Working Orders:
Ticket Open Time Type Size Item Price S / L T / P Market Price
No transactions

Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 498.52 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: 160.28 Floating P/L: -68.90 Margin: 246.98
Balance: 658.80 Equity: 589.90 Free Margin: 342.42

Details:
Gross Profit: 660.08 Gross Loss: 499.80 Total Net Profit: 160.28
Profit Factor: 1.32 Expected Payoff: 1.91
Absolute Drawdown: 192.28 Maximal Drawdown: 269.70 (46.71%) Relative Drawdown: 46.71% (269.70)

Total Trades: 84 Short Positions (won %): 42 (90.48%) Long Positions (won %): 42 (97.62%)
Profit Trades (% of total): 79 (94.05%) Loss trades (% of total): 5 (5.95%)
Largest profit trade: 10.70 loss trade: -100.10
Average profit trade: 8.36 loss trade: -99.96
Maximum consecutive wins ($): 35 (261.00) consecutive losses ($): 2 (-199.70)
Maximal consecutive profit (count): 271.86 (29) consecutive loss (count): -199.70 (2)
Average consecutive wins: 16 consecutive losses: 1