Hi, I bought the indicator, I would like to know what the ReCalc button is for?
Hi Rocco, as the name suggests it forces a recalculation (i.e., performs the cycle analysis again) and it will rarely be needed, if ever. I had noticed in some instances when selecting a different timeframe for a security that I had not charted recently, there would be a delay in the data update so the cycle analysis would be performed on stale data and then the data update would complete...so I added the ReCalc button so I could refresh the cycle analysis without unloading and then reloading the indicator. Since then, I have adjusted the internal indicator logic to automatically force a recalculation if any member of the dataset changes...so at this point the ReCalc button is unlikely to ever be needed.
Christopher Kryza : Ciao Rocco, vieni suggerito il nome, costringe a ricalcolare (cioè, esegue di nuovo l'analisi del ciclo) e raramente sarà necessario, se mai. Avevo visto in alcuni casi in un periodo di tempo diverso da quello che è stato fatto in passato, quindi l'analisi del ciclo è stata eseguita su dati non aggiornati e quindi l'aggiornamento dei dati sarebbe completo ... quindi ho aggiunto il pulsante ReCalc in modo da poter aggiornare l'analisi del ciclo senza scaricare e ricaricare l'indicatore.Da allora, ho regolato la logica dell'indicatore interno per forzare automaticamente un ricalcolo se un membro del set di dati cambia ... quindi a questo punto il pulsante ReCalc è improbabile che sia mai necessario.
Please could you give examples of use online (if possible clearer than those available)?
Thank you
The purpose is to highlight cyclical behavior, identify the individual cycles and their relative amplitude (strength) and phase, and to make projections based on the individual cycles. In the plot, everything to the left of the vertical line (the anchor) is based on the price data specified in the data window (512 bars by default) and this is in-sample. Everything to the right of the vertical line is the projection and, as such, is out-of-sample.
There are many ways you can use the cycle data but the most effective use I have found is to set the anchor (i.e., the Data Offset option in Inputs which is visualized as the grey vertical line in the indicator pange) to a point just past a recent swing high or swing low. Then compare the cycle projection with the actual price action in the Out-of-Sample period and look for any obvious correlations. In other words, are there any cycles plotted in the Out-of-Sample period that tracked very well with the actual price action. If so, then you can use the cycle projection to make decisions based on the anticipated price movement going forward. As each new swing-high/swing-low in the price data is completed, you would reset the anchor poing (using the Data Offset option in the menu) to look for a better fit.
You can also use the cycle projections to manage your stop loss. So if a good-fitting cycle projection indicates that a longer-term cycle is reaching a cycle top, then you might want to tighten your stop in the even that the cycle continues and price begins to turn down (i.e., for a long trade obviously).
Lo scopo è precisare il comportamento ciclico, identificare i singoli cicli e la loro relativa ampiezza (forza) e fase, e fare proiezioni sui singoli cicli. Nel grafico, tutto a sinistra della linea verticale (512 barre per impostazione predefinita) e questo è in-sample. Tutto a destra della linea è la proiezione e, vieni racconto, è fuori campione.
Ci sono molti modi in cui è possibile utilizzare i dati del ciclo, cioè l'opzione Data Offset in Input che viene visualizzata come la linea verticale grigia nella barra dell ' indicatore) fino a un punto appena passato. uno swing recente alto o swing basso.Confrontarsi con la proiezione del tempo con l'azione di prezzo nel tempo Fuori da capo e cerca eventuali correlazioni ovvie. In altre parole, ci sono dei cicli tracciati nel periodo Out-of-Sample che sono stati tracciati molto bene con l'azione dei prezzi effettiva. In tal caso, è possibile usare la proiezione del futuro per futuro. Al termine di ogni nuovo swing-high / swing-low nei dati di prezzo, si ripristina il punto di ancoraggio (utilizzando l'opzione Data Offset nel menu) per cercare un adattamento migliore.
Puoi anche usare le proiezioni del ciclo per gestire lo stop loss.Quindi, se una proiezione è un ciclo superiore, allora sarà necessario stringere il tuo arresto nel caso in cui il ciclo è continuo.
I think I understand the general use.It would be interesting to see 2 or 3 examples (with attachments of written comments) of some successful case and some cases failed
1) If I leave the date offset = 1 and the Cycle Extension = 20,
what kind of considerations can be done?
2) Is it correct with the setting of point 1 on different time frames, to take position when the main cycles on different time frames are aligned?
Well, the problem with leaving the offset at 1 is that you do not have any out-of-sample period in which to compare the cycle projection against the actual price data. Cycles are always present in the price data, and cycles can change frequently (i.e., on every bar). The cycles by themselves, with no confirmation, offer no real advantage. The advantage comes when you find a set of cycles that actually continue (visibly) in the out-of-sample data. In this situation you can at least make an educated decision that the cycle in question will continue for at least some bars into the future.
Regarding "taking positions" based on cycle alignment in different timeframes...it sounds good on paper but does not work that well in practice. The issue is that the cycles are rarely perfect (if they were, trading would be easy). So a cycle low that is being shown on a higher timeframe may actually take several more bars to complete, and we have no real idea as to how many. If you take a trade based on the cycle bottom alignment on the 60-min and, let's say, the 5-min or 1-min, it may run against you for some time. The better practice would be to use the cycles as confirmation for some other signal. So if some long signal is generate by some other mechanism, and if the cycle projection shows us coming off of a cycle low in the trading timeframe...then that would be some confirmation. If the cycles show us reaching a cycle high in the trading timeframe, it might be best to skip that trade, or wait for some other confirmation (or for another cycle to complete).
Cycles to not "predict" anything...rather they provide a visual snapshot of the cycles present in the current price data....and these cycles are not of much value (since they change frequently) unless you can prove that they will continue for some period of time. And you do this by using the out-of-sample period.
Well, the problem with leaving the offset at 1 is that you do not have any out-of-sample period in which to compare the cycle projection against the actual price data. Cycles are always present in the price data, and cycles can change frequently (i.e., on every bar). The cycles by themselves, with no confirmation, offer no real advantage. The advantage comes when you find a set of cycles that actually continue (visibly) in the out-of-sample data. In this situation you can at least make an educated decision that the cycle in question will continue for at least some bars into the future.
Regarding "taking positions" based on cycle alignment in different timeframes...it sounds good on paper but does not work that well in practice. The issue is that the cycles are rarely perfect (if they were, trading would be easy). So a cycle low that is being shown on a higher timeframe may actually take several more bars to complete, and we have no real idea as to how many. If you take a trade based on the cycle bottom alignment on the 60-min and, let's say, the 5-min or 1-min, it may run against you for some time. The better practice would be to use the cycles as confirmation for some other signal. So if some long signal is generate by some other mechanism, and if the cycle projection shows us coming off of a cycle low in the trading timeframe...then that would be some confirmation. If the cycles show us reaching a cycle high in the trading timeframe, it might be best to skip that trade, or wait for some other confirmation (or for another cycle to complete).
Cycles to not "predict" anything...rather they provide a visual snapshot of the cycles present in the current price data....and these cycles are not of much value (since they change frequently) unless you can prove that they will continue for some period of time. And you do this by using the out-of-sample period.
I just uploaded a new version (1.5) that allows you to use your mouse to set the Data Offset (anchor point). Just hold down your SHIFT key, double-click anywhere on the chart, then release the SHIFT key and the anchor will be set on the bar nearest where you double-clicked.
Christopher Kryza: I just uploaded a new version (1.5) that allows you to use your mouse to set the Data Offset (anchor point). Just hold down your SHIFT key, double-click anywhere on the chart, then release the SHIFT key and the anchor will be set on the bar nearest where you double-clicked.
I have been studying cycles for about 10 years and developing systems based them. I have reached a point where I have just increase my capital by 290% in just under 6 Months.
I have known for years that the starting point was Spectrum Analysis so as to know what cycles to decode and trade. I say cycles with an "s" because I have found that the best solution is to trade a Complex Wave made up of several decoded cycles.
Up until now I have not been able to find anyone who could do Spectrum Analysis properly, and have been relying on what I could see visually to set my cycle decoders (not a good solution).
Yesterday I bought your MESA Cycles, have been experimenting with it and I am sure it is the last piece in my Trading Cycles Jig Saw Puzzle. Well may be the the 2nd last piece as I'm going to get MESA Spectrum as well.
I'm pretty confident that 290% in 6 months is nothing compared to what I am about to achieve.
It looks to me like you really know your stuff, and I thank you for making it available.
If by any chance there is anything I can help you with please let me know stewartcoad@gmail.com
Hi, I bought the indicator, I would like to know what the ReCalc button is for?
Hi, I bought the indicator, I would like to know what the ReCalc button is for?
Ciao Rocco, vieni suggerito il nome, costringe a ricalcolare (cioè, esegue di nuovo l'analisi del ciclo) e raramente sarà necessario, se mai. Avevo visto in alcuni casi in un periodo di tempo diverso da quello che è stato fatto in passato, quindi l'analisi del ciclo è stata eseguita su dati non aggiornati e quindi l'aggiornamento dei dati sarebbe completo ... quindi ho aggiunto il pulsante ReCalc in modo da poter aggiornare l'analisi del ciclo senza scaricare e ricaricare l'indicatore.Da allora, ho regolato la logica dell'indicatore interno per forzare automaticamente un ricalcolo se un membro del set di dati cambia ... quindi a questo punto il pulsante ReCalc è improbabile che sia mai necessario.
Thanks.
The purpose is to highlight cyclical behavior, identify the individual cycles and their relative amplitude (strength) and phase, and to make projections based on the individual cycles. In the plot, everything to the left of the vertical line (the anchor) is based on the price data specified in the data window (512 bars by default) and this is in-sample. Everything to the right of the vertical line is the projection and, as such, is out-of-sample.
There are many ways you can use the cycle data but the most effective use I have found is to set the anchor (i.e., the Data Offset option in Inputs which is visualized as the grey vertical line in the indicator pange) to a point just past a recent swing high or swing low. Then compare the cycle projection with the actual price action in the Out-of-Sample period and look for any obvious correlations. In other words, are there any cycles plotted in the Out-of-Sample period that tracked very well with the actual price action. If so, then you can use the cycle projection to make decisions based on the anticipated price movement going forward. As each new swing-high/swing-low in the price data is completed, you would reset the anchor poing (using the Data Offset option in the menu) to look for a better fit.
You can also use the cycle projections to manage your stop loss. So if a good-fitting cycle projection indicates that a longer-term cycle is reaching a cycle top, then you might want to tighten your stop in the even that the cycle continues and price begins to turn down (i.e., for a long trade obviously).
Lo scopo è precisare il comportamento ciclico, identificare i singoli cicli e la loro relativa ampiezza (forza) e fase, e fare proiezioni sui singoli cicli. Nel grafico, tutto a sinistra della linea verticale (512 barre per impostazione predefinita) e questo è in-sample. Tutto a destra della linea è la proiezione e, vieni racconto, è fuori campione.
Ci sono molti modi in cui è possibile utilizzare i dati del ciclo, cioè l'opzione Data Offset in Input che viene visualizzata come la linea verticale grigia nella barra dell ' indicatore) fino a un punto appena passato. uno swing recente alto o swing basso.Confrontarsi con la proiezione del tempo con l'azione di prezzo nel tempo Fuori da capo e cerca eventuali correlazioni ovvie. In altre parole, ci sono dei cicli tracciati nel periodo Out-of-Sample che sono stati tracciati molto bene con l'azione dei prezzi effettiva. In tal caso, è possibile usare la proiezione del futuro per futuro. Al termine di ogni nuovo swing-high / swing-low nei dati di prezzo, si ripristina il punto di ancoraggio (utilizzando l'opzione Data Offset nel menu) per cercare un adattamento migliore.
Puoi anche usare le proiezioni del ciclo per gestire lo stop loss.Quindi, se una proiezione è un ciclo superiore, allora sarà necessario stringere il tuo arresto nel caso in cui il ciclo è continuo.
Thanks for the reply.
I think I understand the general use.It would be interesting to see 2 or 3 examples (with attachments of written comments) of some successful case and some cases failed
still 2 questions question.
what kind of considerations can be done?
still 2 questions question.
what kind of considerations can be done?
Well, the problem with leaving the offset at 1 is that you do not have any out-of-sample period in which to compare the cycle projection against the actual price data. Cycles are always present in the price data, and cycles can change frequently (i.e., on every bar). The cycles by themselves, with no confirmation, offer no real advantage. The advantage comes when you find a set of cycles that actually continue (visibly) in the out-of-sample data. In this situation you can at least make an educated decision that the cycle in question will continue for at least some bars into the future.
Regarding "taking positions" based on cycle alignment in different timeframes...it sounds good on paper but does not work that well in practice. The issue is that the cycles are rarely perfect (if they were, trading would be easy). So a cycle low that is being shown on a higher timeframe may actually take several more bars to complete, and we have no real idea as to how many. If you take a trade based on the cycle bottom alignment on the 60-min and, let's say, the 5-min or 1-min, it may run against you for some time. The better practice would be to use the cycles as confirmation for some other signal. So if some long signal is generate by some other mechanism, and if the cycle projection shows us coming off of a cycle low in the trading timeframe...then that would be some confirmation. If the cycles show us reaching a cycle high in the trading timeframe, it might be best to skip that trade, or wait for some other confirmation (or for another cycle to complete).
Cycles to not "predict" anything...rather they provide a visual snapshot of the cycles present in the current price data....and these cycles are not of much value (since they change frequently) unless you can prove that they will continue for some period of time. And you do this by using the out-of-sample period.
Well, the problem with leaving the offset at 1 is that you do not have any out-of-sample period in which to compare the cycle projection against the actual price data. Cycles are always present in the price data, and cycles can change frequently (i.e., on every bar). The cycles by themselves, with no confirmation, offer no real advantage. The advantage comes when you find a set of cycles that actually continue (visibly) in the out-of-sample data. In this situation you can at least make an educated decision that the cycle in question will continue for at least some bars into the future.
Regarding "taking positions" based on cycle alignment in different timeframes...it sounds good on paper but does not work that well in practice. The issue is that the cycles are rarely perfect (if they were, trading would be easy). So a cycle low that is being shown on a higher timeframe may actually take several more bars to complete, and we have no real idea as to how many. If you take a trade based on the cycle bottom alignment on the 60-min and, let's say, the 5-min or 1-min, it may run against you for some time. The better practice would be to use the cycles as confirmation for some other signal. So if some long signal is generate by some other mechanism, and if the cycle projection shows us coming off of a cycle low in the trading timeframe...then that would be some confirmation. If the cycles show us reaching a cycle high in the trading timeframe, it might be best to skip that trade, or wait for some other confirmation (or for another cycle to complete).
Cycles to not "predict" anything...rather they provide a visual snapshot of the cycles present in the current price data....and these cycles are not of much value (since they change frequently) unless you can prove that they will continue for some period of time. And you do this by using the out-of-sample period.
ok, thank you very much
I just uploaded a new version (1.5) that allows you to use your mouse to set the Data Offset (anchor point). Just hold down your SHIFT key, double-click anywhere on the chart, then release the SHIFT key and the anchor will be set on the bar nearest where you double-clicked.
the new version, I still can not download it.
I'll let you know as soon as possible. Thanks
Hello Christopher.
I have been studying cycles for about 10 years and developing systems based them. I have reached a point where I have just increase my capital by 290% in just under 6 Months.
I have known for years that the starting point was Spectrum Analysis so as to know what cycles to decode and trade. I say cycles with an "s" because I have found that the best solution is to trade a Complex Wave made up of several decoded cycles.
Up until now I have not been able to find anyone who could do Spectrum Analysis properly, and have been relying on what I could see visually to set my cycle decoders (not a good solution).
Yesterday I bought your MESA Cycles, have been experimenting with it and I am sure it is the last piece in my Trading Cycles Jig Saw Puzzle. Well may be the the 2nd last piece as I'm going to get MESA Spectrum as well.
I'm pretty confident that 290% in 6 months is nothing compared to what I am about to achieve.
It looks to me like you really know your stuff, and I thank you for making it available.
If by any chance there is anything I can help you with please let me know stewartcoad@gmail.com
Stewart
Hello,
I see that the buffers of the indicator are not populated?
Can you kindly populate the buffers for the 5 cycles?
It shouldn't be that complex...
Thank you very much and best regards!