Luck or Skill Trade Analyzer MT4

Are your results skill or luck? This free indicator puts your closed trades next to 1,000 random traders who trade the same symbols, the same direction, the same lot size and hold each trade just as long - only at random times.

Luck or Skill reads your account history and gives one plain verdict: how many of those random traders you beat. It never trades.

MT5 version (free) | Pro version | All my tools

What you see

• The verdict: SKILL (you beat 95% or more of the random traders), LEANING SKILL (80-95%), TOO CLOSE TO CALL, or RANDOM ENTRIES DID BETTER
• Your result next to the random traders' median, and the range 90% of them ended in
• A chart of all 1,000 random traders with YOU marked on it
• Your share of winning trades next to theirs
• How many leaks and strengths the Pro version finds in your trades

How the random traders are made

For every closed trade, 100 random twins: same symbol, same buy or sell, same lot size, same holding time, same commission and a spread, but opened at a random moment of the period you traded that symbol. Each random trader takes one twin of each of your trades.

Beat 95% of them and results like yours come from luck less than 1 time in 20.

Your direction and size stay the same, so a trend doesn't count as skill: if you only bought gold while it was rising, the random traders bought it too.

The same history always gives the same answer.

Who it is for

• Manual traders: are your entries better than random timing?
• EA users: what does your Expert Advisor really add?
• Signal and copy-trading subscribers: check the trades your account received
• Prop-firm traders: know if your edge is real before you pay for the next challenge

How to use it

• Attach Luck or Skill to any chart (Indicators). It reads the whole account, not only that symbol
• MetaTrader 4 reads the trades the History tab shows: right-click the History tab and choose All History
• The first time, it loads the price history of every symbol you traded (a few seconds each)
• It counts again by itself when a trade closes; the Recalc button does it on demand
• 30 closed trades are needed for a verdict; 100 or more make it much more reliable
• Read-only: it never opens, changes or closes a trade, and it sits next to your EA

Good to know

• Swaps are left out on both sides (they depend on the nights you held, not on your entries)
• MetaTrader 4 keeps no spreads in its price history, so the indicator remembers the spread it sees while prices are moving. Until it has seen one (for example at the weekend), the random traders pay no spread - that can only make you look worse, never better - and it counts again by itself once prices move
• On MetaTrader 4 a partial close makes a new ticket, so each part counts as its own trade
• Trades on symbols your broker has no price history for are left out and counted on the panel
• A trade shorter than one candle of the loaded history is compared with part of that candle's move
• The verdict looks back: it says what your trades did, not what they will do

Settings

• Newest closed trades to check (default 5,000)
• Random entry times per trade (100) and random traders (1,000)
• Corner, distance from the edges, font size

Want to know where you win and where you leak?

Luck or Skill Pro runs the same test on every part of your trading: each symbol, buys and sells, each day and 4-hour block, hold times, trades opened right after a loss, bigger-than-usual sizes, trades opened while others were running, and each EA by magic number. Every group is tagged SKILL, LEAK or luck. Filters by date, magic number and symbol, and a CSV report.

Like it?

A short review on this page helps other traders find it, and tells me what to build next.

Support: if something doesn't work as expected, send me a private message first. I answer every message and fix problems quickly.