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Jason Mark Smith  

Why Timeframes Sometimes Show the Same Values

At certain times, multiple timeframes start new candles at the exact same moment. When this happens, they can display very similar or even identical values, especially right at the open of a new bar.

Example:
It's 10:00 PM. At this time:

  • A new 4-hour (H4) candle begins (since H4 candles open every 4 hours — 10:00 , 14:00 , 18:00, etc.)

  • A new 1-hour (H1) candle also begins

  • A new 30-minute (M30) candle starts as well

All of these timeframes are now at the very beginning of a new candle. Because no significant price movement has occurred yet, the opening price and the current price are still the same across all these timeframes.As a result, the percentage change — if calculated at this moment — will be identical or very close to zero across all of them.

Why This Happens:
Timeframes are built in a nested structure. Smaller timeframes are subdivisions of larger ones (for example, two M30 candles make up one H1 candle, and four H1 candles form one H4 candle). Due to this, their bars will often open at the same time, particularly on the hour or at common intervals.

This could give the illusion of alignment or confluence between timeframes, when in fact, no meaningful price action has taken place yet. This can lead to misleading signals or premature entries.

Jason Mark Smith  

How Thresholds Help Filter This Out

Thresholds act like a minimum movement filter. They prevent your system from reacting to noise or non-movement.

Example:

If you set a threshold of 0.05%, you're telling your EA:

       “Don’t consider this timeframe valid unless price has moved at least 0.05% from its open.”

      So at 10:00 PM:

  • All the new candles open.

  • But price hasn’t moved much — maybe 0.01% or less.

  • Since that’s below your 0.05% threshold, your EA ignores that data for now.

      This avoids:

  • False confirmations

  • Premature signals

  • Entries based on time-synced candles rather than real market movement

  •  In Short: Thresholds force Midnight Throttle to wait for actual price action before reacting. They filter out those moments where the market looks aligned




Jason Mark Smith  

Combinations to use with Midnight Throttle (3 alignments)

General Technical Analysis Framework

Balanced combinations for trend confirmation and trade execution:

    Group 1

        (M1, M5, M15): Ultra-short-term focus for rapid execution.

        (M15, M30, H1): Balances short-term entries with hourly trend context.

        (H1, H2, H4): Captures intraday-to-daily trends.
        Usage: Ideal for filtering noise while aligning with broader trends.

    Group 2

        (H4, H6, H8): Medium-term trend confirmation.

        (H1, H6, H12): Combines intraday and longer-term perspectives.

        (H1, H2, H3): Focused on intraday volatility.

    Group 3

        (M5, M15, H1): Scalping with hourly confirmation.

        (M5, H1, H4): Short-term entries aligned with 4-hour trends.

        (M30, H1, H2): Balances precision and trend structure.

Scalping Strategies

Ultra-short-term focus with minimal noise:

    Group 1

        (M1, M5, M15): Rapid entries with multi-confirmation.

        (M1, M5, M30): Adds medium-term context to micro-moves.

        (M5, M15, H1): Combines speed with hourly trend validation.

    Group 2

        (M1, M5, H1): Hourly trend alignment for high-frequency trades.

        (M5, M15, M30): Reduces overtrading with filtered signals.

        (M1, M5, H2): Uses H2 to smooth out choppy price action.

    Group 3

        (M5, H1, H2): Confirms scalps against medium-term trends.

        (M1, M3, M5): Hyper-focused on micro-timeframes.

        (M5, H1, H4): Aligns scalps with structural trends.

Intraday Trading

Capturing daily session movements:

    Group 1

        (M5, M15, H1): Core setup for most intraday traders.

        (M15, H1, H4): Balances speed and trend confirmation.

        (M15, M30, H1): Filters noise while staying agile.

    Group 2

        (M5, M30, H1): Quick entries with hourly validation.

        (M15, H1, H6): Extends trend context to 6-hour charts.

        (M5, M15, H4): Targets short-term swings within H4 trends.

    Group 3

        (M1, M5, M30): High-frequency intraday execution.

        (M30, H1, H2): Slower-paced intraday with trend alignment.

        (M5, H1, H4): Combines precision and macro-context.

Swing Trading

Holding positions for days to weeks:

    Group 1

        (M15, H1, H4): Classic swing setup for trend entries.

        (H1, H4, H8): Captures multi-day swings.

        (M30, H1, H4): Balances timing and trend confirmation.

    Group 2

        (H1, H4, H12): Aligns with longer-term trends.

        (M15, H2, H4): Uses H2 for intermediate trend structure.

        (H1, H4, D1): Daily chart validation for swing bias.

    Group 3

        (M30, H1, H12): Slower swing entries with macro-context.

        (M15, H4, H12): Combines precision and long-term trends.

        (H1, H6, D1): Targets daily trends with intraday execution.

Trend Trading

Riding long-term directional moves:

    Group 1

        (H1, H4, D1): Tactical entries within daily trends.

        (H4, D1, W1): Macro-trend alignment for position traders.

        (M30, H1, H4): Balances entry timing with trend structure.

    Group 2

        (H1, H6, D1): Merges intraday and daily trend analysis.

        (M30, H4, D1): Medium-term entries in macro trends.

        (H4, D1, W1): Long-term trend confirmation.

    Group 3

        (H1, H2, D1): Intraday execution with daily bias.

        (H1, H4, H12): Validates trends across multiple sessions.

        (M15, H1, H6): Quick trend-following setups.

Key Principles for Multi-Timeframe Analysis

    Entry Timeframe: Smallest for precision (e.g., M1–M15 for scalping).

    Confirmation Timeframe: Middle tier for trend validation (e.g., H1–H4).

    Directional Bias: Highest timeframe for overarching trend (e.g., D1–W1).

Adaptation Tips:

    Scalpers: Prioritize M1–M15 + H1 for noise reduction.

    Swing Traders: Use H4–D1 for trend alignment.

    Trend Traders: Anchor on D1–W1 for macro bias.





Jason Mark Smith  

Market Analysis:  (Critical Breakdown – Bearish Acceleration) 19.4.2025. Data from percentages change

Key Takeaway: The data shows severe deterioration, with MNL collapsing below +2.60% and macro trends (W1/D1) confirming a bearish regime. Short-term bounces (M15/MS) are too weak to trust.


1. Critical Breakdowns

Time Frame Change Key Level Broken Implication
MNL +2.35% +2.60% Monthly uptrend invalidated.
W1 -1.42% ▼ -1.20% Macro panic mode.
D1 -0.15% ▼ -0.10% Daily trend now bearish.
H1-H4 -0.15% Uniform selling No recovery signs.
MS +0.02% Minor bounce Noise in lowest timeframe.

2. Action Plan

For All Traders:

  1. STOP all long positions – MNL breakdown is a game-changer.

  2. Short rallies: Sell bounces in H1 (-0.10%) or M15 (+0.00%).

  3. Aggressive targets:

    • W1: -1.50%

    • D1: -0.20%

For Investors:

  • Emergency exit if holding longs – MNL suggests further downside.

  • Hedging: Buy puts or inverse ETFs.


3. Key Levels Moving Forward

Level Direction Significance
MNL +2.35% Resistance New ceiling for any rally.
W1 -1.40% Support Breach targets -1.50%.
D1 -0.10% Resistance Sell zone for swing traders.

4. One-Sentence Strategy

"Sell every bounce until MNL reclaims +2.60% or W1 stabilizes above -1.40%."

Visual Guide:

Copy

Downtrend Path: W1 (-1.50%) → D1 (-0.20%) → H1 (-0.20%) Dead Cat Bounce: MS (+0.05% fail) → Short opportunity

Bottom Line: This is a high-confidence bear market. Preserve capital and trade reactively.


Jason Mark Smith  

The above is Bitcoin analysis using percentage change data.

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