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For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed. Growth in household

Scotland should have the right to hold another independence referendum if there is a clear demand from the Scottish people, or if Brexit takes Scotland out of the European Union (EU) against the will of the Scottish people, leader of the Scottish

The UK’s EU referendum campaign meanwhile is now in full flow. Bloomberg’s latest poll tracker puts the ‘remain’ camp at 40%, with the ‘Leave’ camp at 39% and 21% undecided. So, still far too close to call. The Chancellor’s ‘long-term assessment of

Major Currencies Forecasts

We do not expect any ECB action at this week’s policy meeting. After the big package in March, we think the ECB will have a few months before it needs to go back to the drawing board. True, dovish Fed tones and EUR appreciation do not help the ECB at

The EUR has come off its highs and this should presumably lessen the concerns at the Governing Council that unwarranted FX appreciation will add to the headwinds for growth and inflation. This need not mean, however, that the ECB is now more relaxed

Short exposure in the GBP remains at an extreme according to BNP Paribas FX Positioning Analysis. The UK data calendar picks up later in the week with the release of the February employment report (Wednesday) and March retail sales (Thursday). In

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda told the WSJ that inflation could be affected if the yen continued to rise excessively, leading to further easing measures to meet its price target. These are his most explicit comments since the Japanese currency

The ECB will hold its regular monetary policy meeting this Thursday. We expect no change in the monetary policy parameters this time , after the ECB announced a broad easing package last March. Some of the measures announced, including the purchase

As EUR/USD skips towards 1.14, the fact that it’s doing so despite huge outflows of long-term capital and wholesale abandon of European bonds by foreigners, doesn’t really help. The Euro is going up despite the ECB. The yield-spread-based model of

Analysis from Goldman Sachs There is a growing sense that monetary stimulus is reaching its limits, with some advocating for the BoJ and ECB to term out their inflation forecasts in order to signal that reaching two percent, while still the

ECB monetary policy announcement from the April 2016 meeting 21 April 2016 Main refi rate 0.0% Deposit rate -0.40% Marginal lending rate -0.25% Total monthly QE €80bn

In a note today, Deutsche Bank outlines 3 reasons behind maintaining its medium term bearish EUR/USD view: First, despite recent Fed dovishness, the real rate differential between Europe and the US is not signaling a large divergence in FX versus

When it comes to the Eurozone, ECB President Draghi failed to make a bigger case of additional stimulus measures being considered anytime soon. Even if Draghi left all options regarding a more aggressive stance open, he more or less reaffirmed that

We expect the continued low inflation in the euro area to eventually trigger additional easing from the ECB, but we do not expect the ECB to address this by rate cuts. Instead, we find it likely the ECB will extend the QE purchases beyond March 2017

Long GBP/USD is the strongest quant signal this week from BNP Paribas STEER model. The signal has a target of 1.4371, and a stop at 1.3937. source

Markets are trading risk on, buoyed by better than expected China trade data, with Eurostoxx50 more than 2.5% higher and US front-end yields tentatively pushing higher. In sympathy the USD is bouncing back vs the EUR and the JPY and in the near-term

he market has started testing the central banks Markets have stopped focusing on what central banks are doing and are positioning for what they believe central banks may or may not do. In recent years, FX investors had to focus primarily on getting

Since the dovish shift from the FOMC last month, the Dollar against the majors has fallen back towards the bottom of the range that it has traded in over the past year. Global equity markets have failed to benefit from what has been a string of