EUR/USD: Any Near-Term Upside Limited To 1.15

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EUR/USD – BULLISH BIAS – (1.1100-1.1500)

Next week will see us enter into the FOMC black-out period ahead of the policy meeting on 21st September and hence the only developments that might alter the current low expectations of a rate hike would be a series of strong data.

Ahead of that tomorrow though we will get the final speakers from the Fed with Boston Fed President Rosengren and Dallas Fed President Kaplan both speaking. Rosengren is a voter and hence more focus will be on his words. He’s seen more on the dovish side and hence any sense that he is open to a September rate increase could prompt a sizeable shift in market expectations. He last spoke on 31st August and did make some interesting comments expressing some concerns over the financial market implication of leaving rates too low for too long.

Retail Sales (Thursday) will be important for Fed deliberations as will the CPI report next Friday.

With little likely to disrupt the current momentum in the foreign exchange market and following the ECB meeting today, we envisage further upside momentum over the short-term.


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