EUR/USD – BULLISH BIAS – (1.1100-1.1500)
week will see us enter into the FOMC black-out period ahead of the
policy meeting on 21st September and hence the only developments that
might alter the current low expectations of a rate hike would be a
series of strong data.
Ahead of that tomorrow though we will get the final speakers from the
Fed with Boston Fed President Rosengren and Dallas Fed President Kaplan
both speaking. Rosengren is a voter and hence more focus will be on his
words. He’s seen more on the dovish side and hence any sense that he is
open to a September rate increase could prompt a sizeable shift in
market expectations. He last spoke on 31st August and did make some
interesting comments expressing some concerns over the financial market
implication of leaving rates too low for too long.
Retail Sales (Thursday) will be important for Fed deliberations as will the CPI report next Friday.
With little likely to disrupt the current momentum in the foreign exchange market and following the ECB meeting today, we envisage further upside momentum over the short-term.