Ahmad Hassam / Blog
Most traders who trade on MT4 never come across tick charts. Tick charts are not available on MT4. Nor do we can go below 1 minute. By never going below 1 minute timeframe we are ignoring lots of information. Price moves very fast in milliseconds whereas we are looking at 1 minute charts...
Autoregressive AR models are used a lot in forecasting and prediction. The problem with standard AR models is that they use normal Gaussian errors. We all know that financial returns are not normally distributed. We can use Bayesian analysis and build AR models that have long tail returns...
RandomForest is a very popular machine learning algorithm. It gets widely used in machine learning classification problems. RandomForest first builds random trees by boosting using input features. Then is aggregates the trees and gives the result by majority voting...
Why you need to score the market? It helps avoid emotional trading decisions. In trading, you need to control your emotions if you want to avoid mistakes. One method to control your emotions is to bring structure your decision making...
DLM is basically the acronym for Dynamic Linear Models. Kalman Filter is the most basic form of a DLM. DLMs have been used extensively in many different fields. Can we use Dynamic Linear Models in building trading models? Of course we can. Dynamic Linear Models can help you predict price...
Financial markets are complex adaptive systems that are continuously changing behavior. Financial firms have to manage risk in real time so they need risk management models. Forecasting price will always be an unreliable business but we will have to do it to manage risk...
Dynamic Time Warping is an algorithm that is used to compare two time series. Suppose you say, " Let's all go for shopping and then have our lunch in a good restaurant." You take 10 seconds to say this sentence. Your friend repeats this exact same sentence in 30 seconds...
Volatility is a very important parameter for a quant. But I don't see many volatility based indicators being used by traders. There are invisible levels on the charts where price takes a turn. We cannot see those invisible levels but quants using their quantitative models can see them...
Trading is a zero sum game. If you lose someone is winning. Market comprises millions of people hooked up on their computers. These people are buying and selling currencies or other instruments whatever suits them. Most of them don't know why they are buying and selling so they will always lose...
Many traders use technical analysis in trading their every day. They believe in it despite the fact that technical analysis is highly subjective. Technical analysis that cannot be quantified is a useless illusion that fools many traders...