adt_fx FX Outlook 2015 – General (Weekly) Update – 18 April 2015 No Change. Still expecting to lower EURUSD target to below Parity. Despite relative AUD strength last week, prefer NZ export composition and soft commodities generally and also expect to lower AUDNZD target to below Parity...
No Change. Still expecting to lower EURUSD target to below Parity. Despite relative AUD strength last week, prefer NZ export composition and soft commodities generally and also expect to lower AUDNZD target to below Parity.
adtfx $EUR #EU #ECB #QE Reporting To March 31 2015. €60B monthly target met. Public Sector – Sovereign Purchases / Holdings €47.4B (€52.5 3 April), 23% German against Target buying of 26%. The program is proving effective – dampening German Bond yields as all EU Bond yields. German 10 year Bunds down to 0.16% and all German Bond rates negative up to and including 7 years. The effect on the $EUR is becoming obvious, particularly against $USD as there is / should also be upward pressure on US Bond yields – 180 degree Divergence.
adt_fx Outlook 2015 – General Update: $EURUSD Long then Short seemed to work last week. Looking Short $EURUSD and $AUDUSD now. To coin a phrase from Buzz Lightyear - Toy Story – $EURUSD To Parity and Below. And it shouldn’t take LightYears. Coming up this week - Greece (Monday?), QE, NFP on Good Friday.
adt_fx Disclosure: Positions – Short $EURUSD. Intending – Short $AUDUSD, Long USDJPY. Still Looking - $INR, $PHP - v $EUR and / or $AUD. Would you like ketchup with your macaroni&cheese, or just the bonds?
adt_fx Outlook 2015. Mixed bag coming up this week. Greece (Monday), QE, PMI's, US CPI and GDP. Potential for further USD weakness and EUR rally. Looking to Short EURUSD for Long-Term but maybe at 1.10+ and maybe short-term Long opportunity first? Last 2 weeks most Bank EURUSD medium to long term targets cut. I’ll conservatively but realistically (no Bull or Bear Sh.. here) stick to Parity target for now – next six months, but look for lower H2 2015 and into 2016. See Slide for elaboration.