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Pure statistics: what if the Forex was like a non-zero roulette with an unlimited stake? When applying a grid on a chart, the price can only do two things: break a level to reach the next one or bounce (return) from a level to the other.

This is what ReturnOrBreak detects and analyzes. It calculates the percentage of breaks and returns on a specific number of bars (defined by the user) compared to the grid spacing (also set by the user). Therefore the user instantly sees what event is statistically likely to happen and the maximum number of identical events that happened in a row, on the period and timeframe selected.

ReturnOrBreak is a simple, robust solution that shows you instantly, for example, that a EURUSD return trade has a 65% chance to achieve a 25 pips target after Open (picture 1), based on the last 500 bars (daily chart).

Results can be improved by changing the value of the grid spacing. Picture 2 shows a study of the last 2 000 bars (daily chart), 65% chance to achieve a 50 pips target with a maximum of 9 breaks in a row. The accuracy of the results can be checked easily by loading a smaller and a larger timeframe charts and comparing both.

Picture 3 shows a 2 500 bars study on GBP/USD. This is 2 500 days of trading. ReturnOrBreak shows 70% chance to achieve a 25 pips target on a return trade with a maximum of 6 breaks and 27 returns trades in a row.

The green bars in the histogram show the return moves, while the blue bars show the breaks moves. Grid and Histogram colors are customizable.


  1. You choose the number of pips you want to make with the appropriate SL (grid spacing), as well as the timeframe to multiply opportunities (best results on larger timeframes).
  2. No technical or fundamental study (100% verified, hard statistics).
  3. No market guru to rely on (total control of the strategy, manual trading).
  4. No complex algorithm (simple and stable).
  5. Several years' analysis that provides relevant information.
  6. Opportunities at all times.
  7. Suitable for martingale strategy, risk adjustable (detection of rare events).

ATTENTION: Processing can take up to 15 seconds. Make sure to load all the data available in history center.

If Open = grid level, the indicator uses the next Open on the M1 timeframe in order to always record a break or a return.

All calculations can be checked easily by looking at smaller timeframes. The indicator waits for the next Open to integrate new data and only one event (the first break or return) can be recorded for each bar closed.

Jean-Sebastien Laurent
2015.05.23 16:45