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“Advanced” traders fall into the trap of result fitting as a rule. I am not an exception. It is very simple to make a decision on history, because we already know the right answer. In reality everything is much more difficult. Use of such as system in reality is likely to have disastrous effects. Moreover, fitting can be of such hidden forms, that even a specialist can’t detect it at the stage of a system creation. My favorite method to combat it is a “blind” test when a certain quite large part of history not used for optimization is selected beforehand. And the final result then is tested on this period. And if you do everything earnestly, it becomes clear what a system is worth of.
The interview was published on the website of Automated Trading Championship 2008 in the News section.
Sponsors of the Automated Trading Championship 2008 are FXCM (Forex Capital Markets LLC), Interbank FX LLC (IBFX), FXDD and the TRADERS’ magazine. The organizer of the Championship is MetaQuotes Software Corp.