Forecasting - page 4
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I disagree...
If there were as many addictions as you say there are, you couldn't spit to keep from falling for a billionaire trader.
As it is, alas...
Dependency on objects willingness to buy or sell is very high, but there are limits to what they can do.
Filtering doesn't help here. You get confused with filtering to remove low-frequency or high-frequency components of the signal spectrum, which is noise itself. After filtering you get a pure set of harmonics, which will lead in any case to incorrect prediction, except that - if the process itself is those very harmonics
The conversation once again threatens to descend into the abyss of detached from reality mathematical exercises
In order for a prediction to be possible, you must either know that cause "A" entails, for example, a Rise in the quote, or get statistics demonstrating that, after situation "B" occurs, there is, for example, a FALL in a different percentage of cases (even if without understanding the cause).
As for dependencies, there is no need to look for them, the main thing is to link all price indicators to each other, the stronger the links, the better the forecast.
So you are saying that the direction in which a quote will move in the next minute depends on the values of somespecific indicators...?
Once again the conversation threatens to descend into the abyss of disconnected mathematical exercises
For a prediction to be possible, you must either know that cause "A" entails, for example, a Rise in the quote, or get statistics showing that, after cause "B" occurs, there is, for example, a FALL in a different percentage of cases (even if you don't understand the cause).
You have moved into the realm of causes, which is nothing more than fundamental analysis, not technical analysis.
So you are saying that the direction in which a quote will move in the next minute depends on the values of somespecific indicators...?
In technical analysis, yes, because the calculation is strictly with numbers.
Dependence on the willingness of objects to buy or sell is very high, but there are limits to what they can do.
This is a completely empty statement
You have no ability to make the slightest prediction based on it.
Please elaborate, if possible...
You have moved into the area of reasons, which is nothing more than fundamental analysis rather than technical analysis.
Aren't the two interlinked?
This is a completely empty statement ....
You are not in a position to make the slightest prediction based on it.
Please elaborate, if possible...
Boundaries of possibilities are pivot points.
Aren't they interrelated?
Technical analysis is based on mathematics, fundamental analysis is not. Fundamental analysis gathers information about speeches, publications, rumours and so on to make a decision.
dimozg:
Вы перешли в область причин,..
In technical analysis, yes, because the calculation is strictly with numbers.
I've moved into the realm of reality: to be able to make a prediction, you must either know the REALITY, or have statistics showing that, after some situation described by a set of attributes, price will, in most cases, behave this way and not that way