Random probability theory. Napalm continues! - page 29
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
it's about the cube.
the recurrence probability is also 1\6, but it's much lower than the other outcome probability of the other outcomes [5\6].
Don't be trollish! Naturally, the probability of any other number than the one drawn will be higher. And it makes absolutely no difference whether or not the chosen digit has come up before. You guessed 3 and it came out 3. Then you guessed 3 again. The probability that it won 't be 3 is 5/6. But the probability that it won 't be a 6, for example, is also 5/6, even though it didn't come out before.
That's my point - everything is a compromise, but what is it based on? A reasonable choice between the length of the series and the time needed for its event.
No, not really, not really. Everything is based on the capital on which you dance, and on the reasonableness of the ratio of risk/time, which are adjusted to this capital.
Say you have a ruble, and you want to make 10 rubles, you can do it more or less safely, betting on the 1st kopeck, but then you will save 10 after a year or so....5)))) in short for a long time.
You may start with 3 kopecks, and you have different risks, which you can compensate by betting on more rare events.
And the most interesting thing is just in the mechanism of choice when with one and the same initial capital, dancing during the game from 1 kopeck, and in other moments - from 3 kopecks.
The series has both probability of its occurrence in time, and probability of change of CONSTITUTION of the series itself, which should statistically tend to balance when the selections increase.
But on the way to this aspiration they deviate from the set course 50/50, and borders of these deviations also are calculated long ago.
The essence remains that at a deviation of one series more in our favour to include the starting mechanism from 3 kopecks, at the same time we at the same time have a bunch of other series, which can be selected and grouped, and find the opposite series, in which the skew will not be in our direction and on it dance from 1 kopeck.
The probability of any number is 1/6, no one's disputing that.
The probability of repeating is also 1/6, but it's much smaller than the probability of the other outcome [5/6].
Oh, my God! Who would have thought?
Did you ever think that in the first shot the probability of "the other outcome" is also 5/6 ?
No, not really, not really. Everything is based on the capital on which we're dancing, and on the reasonableness of the risk/time ratio that's being matched to that capital.
Say you have a ruble, and you want to make 10 rubles, you can do it more or less safely, betting on the 1st kopeck, but then you will save 10 after a year or so....5)))) in short for a long time.
You may start with 3 kopecks, and you have different risks, which you can compensate by betting on more rare events.
And the most interesting thing is just in the mechanism of choice when with one and the same initial capital, dancing during the game from 1 kopeck, and in other moments - from 3 kopecks.
The series has both probability of its occurrence in time, and probability of change of CONSTITUTION of the series itself, which should statistically tend to balance when the selections increase.
But on the way to this aspiration they deviate from the set course 50/50, and borders of these deviations also are calculated long ago.
The essence remains that at a deviation of one series more in our favour to include the starting mechanism from 3 kopecks, at the same time we at the same time have a bunch of other series, which can be selected and grouped, and find the opposite series, in which the skew will not be in our direction and on it dance from 1 kopeck.
I forgot to add SERIES DO NOT need consecutive outcomes to make a series for analysis, we can take say 1st, 2nd,3rd, 6th, 6th, 7th, 25th, 26th, 30th, fallout values,
And the calculation of the probability of appearance of this series becomes more complicated, because these individual hits also have their own probability of appearance in relation to one or another long resulting series,
As a result inside the long final series it is possible to assemble such a series, each member of which will consist of the probabilities of each individual fall in relation to the final series that are skewed in our direction.
Oh, my God! Who would have thought?
Did you ever think that in the first shot the probability of "the other outcome" is also 5/6 ?
I'm talking about changing states. I don't care about the first flip at all. it was any, its recurrence in an infinity of possible outcomes tends to zero.
It's not obvious in the coin application.
What's not clear? It's based on the assumption that the basis of probability is a change of state.
If there is no change, there is a trend. So it turns out that the probability of a trend and a non-trend is the same, although we take the sequence as random.
But how was it? If a white and black ball are placed in the box, what is the probability to take the red one out? non-zero, remember, right? ;-)))))
I forgot to add SERIES-DO NOT OBLIGATORY consecutive outcomes to make a series for analysis, we can take, say, the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 25th, 26th, 30th, fallout values,
And calculating the timing of the probability of appearance of this series becomes more complicated, while these individual hits also have their own probability of appearance relative to any one long final series,
As a result, within a long final series it is possible to assemble such a series, each member of which will consist of the probabilities of each individual fall in relation to the final series skewed to us.
ideas are clear, there are essentially an infinite number of series, what prevents you from choosing the one which currently shows the tail - and with a high probability that the tail will be followed by other series, this tail straightening out, you can work.
I'm confused by the fact that you're bringing mm into it. it smells like martin, which, as you know, doesn't lead to anything good )))))))
And a follow-up question
let's say we are collecting stats for a series of 10 spins.
We need stats for 100 variations.
Mind if we roll the dice 1,000 times?
or
we roll 10, then we discard the last outcome and add a new random outcome.
So, the rolls will be 10+100 = 110.
Question - statistics, distribution will be normal in both cases?
with this one, can someone tell me the reasoning? :-(
will the distributions be equal? does it make a difference if we take a series of completely random or with partly similar history?
With this one, can someone give me a hint? :-(
will there be equal distributions? does it make a difference if we take series with completely arbitrary or with partially identical history?