The regularities of price movements: Part 2. Series of bars - page 3
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Wrong conclusion. Don't forget that the process has no memory. Think of roulette: If you get 10 reds in 50 spins, it doesn't necessarily mean you have to get 40 reds in the next 50 spins for the total 100 spins to be 50/50.
It's amazing how easy it is to give examples out of the blue... Yeah... There will be no such situation for 10,000,000 spins - 40 black and 10 red colours for 50 spins...
Well, you can't be so.... how shall I put it gently... (take your pick), so free with the probabilities :-)
Especially for martingale lovers, for example, let me explain: out of 100 trades at least 30 will be in profit (this is just as an example). Think about it.
It's amazing how easy it is to give examples out of the blue... Yeah... There's no way you're going to get 40 blacks and 10 reds in 50 spins...
you can't be so.... how shall I put this delicately... (take your pick), so free with the probabilities :-)
You might learn the math, write in the "psychic" or whatever branch, check out the new cats in the humor section, maybe in time you'll learn to understand probability.
Especially for martingale lovers, for example, let me explain: out of 100 trades at least 30 will be in profit (this is just as an example). Think about it.
It does not matter the ratio of profitable/losing trades. See the mathematical expectation formula:
MO = Average_win * probability_of_winning - Average_loss * probability_of_losing.
Learn the math, write in the "psychic" or whatever, check out the new cats in the humor section - maybe in time you'll learn to understand probability.
My story had a total of 6400 bars, so I put them all in 1 series
to see the total, not the minimum.
the minimum in one series coincides with all falling (rising)
and what popped up 102 - some kind of glitch in the test (script)
If anyone has any criticism of the calculation part of the script or any results of similar research, please speak up.
I will join the discussion of the regularities associated with the series of bars, as well as some problems related to this topic.
Take the trend for the whole period, you will get a more accurate ratio of bars.
Specifically, take the difference between the initial and final price for the whole period and divide it by the number of bars. The obtained value is an adjustment value that should be subtracted from the height of the rising bar or added to the height of the falling bar. It doesn't have to be 36% rising and 32% falling.
Who's to say :-) there's still no way for you to win at roulette :-) It always will be... Hahahahahahaha :-)
I'm not really upset, you can't win either - so I'm not alone :-)
Take the trend for the whole period and get a more accurate bar ratio.
Specifically, you take the difference between the end and the start price for the whole period, divide it by the number of bars. The obtained value is an adjustment value and should be subtracted from the height of the rising bar or added to the height of the falling bar. It doesn't have to be 36% rising and 32% falling.
The other thing is important here - the minimum number of increasing/decreasing bars in a series of the given size.
For example, for a series of 100 bars it can be 30%, and for a series of 10-15 bars it will be 0.
in the "psychic" thread.
AHAHAHA))) Is it this one? - "EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences".
The most powerful thread on the forum in terms of number of posts.